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Michael J. Clark was born and raised in Sinclair, Wyoming. He is a poet, novelist, artist, historian, and market analyst. His fine arts portfolio can be found at the following address: http://www.hoalantrangallery.com/MJC2.htm His writing portfolio can be found at:... More
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Clark's Gate Timing System ©
  • CGTS WEEKEND REPORT FOR 10 AUGUST 2009 0 comments
    Aug 9, 2009 5:03 AM

    CGTS WEEKEND EDITION 
    9 AUGUST 2009

    Where are we in terms of our Goldman Sachs Rally?  Generally speaking, we are short-term overbought but still have rising momentum.  Clearly the government is desperate to keep this rally going.  Bernanke's boys are so desperate they are using our money to keep stocks (and Treasury Bond yields) from falling.  Can the governments of the world keep this rally going, even when the fundamentals suggest we should have a flat or a negative market.  The cheerleaders in the financial press have tried everything they can to convince us that his is the bottom of the recession -- but not all of us are buying this.  They want to keep their jobs -- I understand that -- but they are not using their own money to try to keep their jobs.  They are using our childrens' and grandchildrens' money. 

    The government give-away for 'Cash for Clunkers' is another example of the subterfuge.  They are resurrecting the auto industry?  Really?  Over-indebted Americans are giving up wholly-owned cars for a $4,000 rebate (a rebate we are paying them) in order to go more deeply in debt?  Is that what capitalism is?  A government-sponsored purchase plan?  Is that a sign of an economic recovery?  It looks like the Obama administration is now taking its orders from China -- instead of facing the Day of Reckoning with a bold recogniton that an era is ending and a new era is beginning -- an era of fiscal responsibility.  China tried to buy an economic recovery by handing our billions of dollars to consumers to buy cars, stocks, and property.  I wonder what John Maynard Keynes would be saying about all this?  (I wonder what Mao Tse Tung would be saying?  My, how the world has changed.)

    Is the subterfuge working?  This weeks non-farm employment numbers were a bit of a snowjob by the government also.  Unemployment numbers supposed fell by .1%, from 9.5% to 9.4% -- and the celebration was heard all the way to Mars.  Stock markets jumped another 1 1/2% -- I guess the jobs numbers also 'beat the street' expectations.  But a closer look at the numbers inspires wonder.

    June 154,926,000 work force - 140,196,000 employed = 14,730,000 unemployed (14.73/154.926 = 9.5%)

    July 154,504,000 work force - 140,041,000 employed = 14,463,000 unemployed (14.463/154.504 = 9.4%)

    June 154,926,000 employed. July 154,504,000 employed. = Loss of 422,000 jobs.

    June 14,730,000 unemployed. July 14,463,000 unemployed = gain of 155,000 jobs.

    What happened to those extra 267,000 people who lost jobs (422,000 July jobs lost - 155,000 July jobs gained).

    As it has been explained to me, those 422,000 people who were unaccounted for apparently gave up looking for jobs.  So they don't count anymore.  Did they get jobs?  No.  They did NOT show up in the 'employed' column.  So, by the government's own numbers, 267,000 more people were unemployed, rather than 155,000 fewer.  Lying is easier than facing the truth apparently.  Let's all put on a good face and trust our leaders -- afterall, that's what we did before the economy imploded two years ago.  Maybe if we close our eyes and ears, we won't see that the economy is still disintegrating.  Let's try it.


    How Do the Indices Look?

    The Semiconductor Index (NASDAQ:SOXX) is giving us a slightly different picture.  SOXX is trying to top (see chart below).

    In Asia, The Taiwan Index is also showing major signs of fatigue.  And for the first time in a while, Chinese stocks manifested slight signs of gravity.

    Reason tells us we're heading toward a mean correction.  But the charts aren't showing that yet.  Some rounding in to tops.  But mainly, a blind euphoria that is a little bit unnerving.  (I try to ignore my own personal feelings -- opinions -- as much as possible, and rely on the numbers telling me what the current reality is.)

    SOXX WeekSOXX DailyTWIIHSI DailySSEC Daily




    Some readers have asked how to work with our Top 30 and Bottom 30 Momentum leaders.  These jumps in momentum are not buy or sell signals by themselves.  But they indicate a very strong pop up or pop down has occurred.  If the reader owns issues in the Top 40, then he or she should be smiling.  If the reader owns issues in the Botton 40, then these issues need to be watched closely, as momentum has begun to shift.  We will look at a few charts to illustrate this.

    JNJ, Johnson and Johnson, is in the Bottom 30 Momentum list and deserves to be there.  RHT (Red Hat) also is bleeding momentum.  AMGN also looks like it's losing momentum at a top.  On the other hand, our 'leaders' DHI, PNC, and JPMorgan all seem to be heading to higher highs.


    TOP 30 Momentum Leaders Week of 8/7/09 (1-30)

    TBT    Ultrashort T-Bond 20+ Year ETF
    DHI    DR Horton Inc.
    PNC    PNC Financial Svc Weekly
    JPM    JP Morgan Chase
    BAC    Bank of America Weekly
    AMSC    AMERICAN SUPERCONDUCTOR
    NKE    Nike Inc.
    HD    Home Depot
    BEN    Franklin Resources
    BNI    Burlington Northern Santa Fe Corp
    IYR    Real Estate ETF
    KBH    KBH Home Builders
    HOV    Hovnanian Enterprises
    BBY    Best Buy Inc.
    CA    Computer Associates Inc
    AXP    American Express
    F    Ford Weekly
    EQR    Equity Residential
    COL    Rockwell Collins Weekly
    ^TYX    30 YEAR TREASURY BOND
    SBUX    Starbucks
    ^DJT    Dow Jones Transport Index
    TMX    Mexico Telecom
    CAT    Caterpillar
    PCU    SOUTHERN COPPER CORP
    ^HUI    Gold Stock Index
    ^XCI    Amex Computer Stock Index
    HMY    Harmony Gold Mining
    MKL    Merkel Weekly
    IAU    IShares Comex Gold Trust

    Bottom 30 Momentum Losers Week of 8/7/09 (30-1)

    SGP    Schering Plough Weekly
    QCOM    QUALCOM CORP
    EMC    EMC Corp
    ^DRG    Amex Pharmaceutical Index
    VZ    Verizon Communications
    XOM    Exxon Mobile
    UUP    POWERSHARES DB US DOLLAR BULLISH
    RHT    RED HAT INC.
    ^TWII    TSEC WEIGHTED TAIWAN INDEX
    STJ    St. Jude Medical
    YHOO    Yahoo Weekly
    SH    Short SP 500 ETF
    INTC    Intel
    SGINX    DWS GNMA S. FUND
    KUSMX    DWS GOVERNMENT SECURITIES
    DXD    Short Dow Index ETF
    MCD    McDonald's
    MRK    Merck Pharmaceuticals Weekly
    DOG    Short DOW 30
    JNJ    Johnson & Johnson
    AMGN    Amgen Corp
    FSLR    FIRST SOLAR
    IBB    Biotech ETF
    MYY    Short Midcap Index ETF
    ORCL    Oracle Inc.
    UNH    United Healthcare
    PG    Procter & Gamble
    TEVA    Teva Labs
    RGR    STURM RUGER INC.
    HURN    HURON CONSULTING

    JNJ WEEK

    RHTAMGNDHI WeeklyPNCJPM



    CGTS WEEKLY PORFTOLIO
    % GAIN
    TRADING SYSTEM GAIN ACTIVE TRADES ACTIVE COSTS  
    34.56% M5 7 $155,506 45 $450,000  
    139.72% M5 10 $97,801 7 $70,000  
      M2F ALT Trade new      
      M2F ALT Long-Term new      
    10.86% Momentum $44,515 41 $410,000  
    11.62% M4 Sum Plus Trade $55,759 48 $480,000  
    79.30% M4 Sun Plus L-Term $340,991 43 $430,000  
    35.55% MA5/MA40 L-Term $113,764 32 $320,000  
    36.91% TOTALS $808,338 219 $2,190,000  

    You'll see we' ve added a couple new systems to our Weekly Portfolio list.


    CGTS WEEKLY - CURRENT TRADES
    M5 7 Trading System  
    Buy SLM 9.47
    Buy EOC 47.99
    Buy RGR 11.45
    Buy RHT 21.84
    M5 10 Trading System  
    Buy RHT 21.84
    M4 Sum Plus Trade System  
    Buy ENMD .56
    Buy XES 24.2
    M4 Sum Plus L-Term  
    Buy ELY 6.95
    Buy PEIX .38
    Buy FST 17.16
    MA5/MA40 L-Term  
    ELY 6.95



    Everyone, have a good weekend.

    More information on this system can be found at

    www.home.mindspring.com/~mclark7/CGTS09.htm


    Portfolio of CGTS Trades for 09 (updated weekly) can be found at:

    www.home.mindspring.com/~mclark7/cgtsportfolio09.htm


    Those interested in reading a draft of 'Turn Out the Lights', my description of the metaphysical causes of the financial collapse, can find it at:


    www.hoalantrangallery.com/Turnoutlights.htm

     

    Michael J. Clark
    Clark's Gate Timing System
    Hanoi, Vietnam
    84 4 221 92210

    Disclosure: the author personally owns none of the issues mentioned in this article.



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