Michael Clark's  Instablog

CGTS WEEKEND EDITION 
28 AUGUST 2009

There is nothing in the weekly charts to suggest that this rally is losing steam.  We feel the rally is not confirmed by fundamentals in the economy -- but it is technically not weakening (except in China). SOXX (Semiconductor Index) seemed to be breaking down, but rallied this week to restructure its technicals to look more positive.

Our weekly portfolio continues to be up about 38%.  We have stopped getting a lot of buy signals as our system depends upon reversals to oversold levels to generate buy signals.  This market is being kept from falling -- volume indicates not by general investor enthusiasm -- but by some black fog named Ben Bernanke.  Now that is the kind of leadership we've been neeeding for 200 years, the kind that does not allow a market to fail.  Helicopter Ben is working on a new nickname: 'Dirigible Ben'.  Well, we all know how that movie ends.

% Gain	Weekly Trades		Profit	Active	Active	First
	8/28/09			Trades	Cost	Trade
80.36%	M5 (7) 2		$96,432	12	120000	1/9/09
196.24%	M5 (10) 2		$98,120	5	50000	3/6/09
2.07%	M2F alt Trade		$415	2	20000	8/14/09
7.05%	M2F alt LT		$2,820	4	40000	7/9/09
11.28%	Momentum		$49,628	44	440000	6/26/09
13.54%	M4 Sum Plus		$63,620	47	470000	7/17/09
71.39%	M4 Plus LT		$342,685	48	480000	2/20/09
34.21%	MA5 MA 40 LT		$116,314	34	340000	3/20/09
16.41%	M4 Sum Plus Rev		$4,923	3	30000	8/21/09
0.01%	M4 Sum Plus Rev 2		$1	1	10000	8/28/09
38.75%	Total		$774,957	200	$2,000,000

In this kind of market it makes no sense to let one's emotions get involved with the big picture.  There are many reasons this market might crash -- but there is also the chance it will just continue to go up as if impelled by the magic of anti-gravity.  It's best to follow the system, which has no emotion attached to it.

MOMENTUM

We've changed our momentum leaders (below) to indicate M5 leaders overall and M5  leaders over the last 3 weeks -- both the 30 strongest and the 30 weakest.  This is a kind of relative strength indicator, showing which issues have the highest or lowest momentum.

Example: EDU is in the top 30 but is also in the bottom 30 over the last 3 weeks, which is what we would expect with the Chinese market showing weakness.

Top 30 Momentum M5 Leaders (1-30)
MRK	Merck Pharmaceuticals Weekly
PCLN	PRICELINE
TEVA	Teva Labs
SGINX	DWS GNMA S. FUND
EMC	EMC Corp
HAL	HALIBURTON
ECH	I-SHARES MSCI CHILEAN INDEX
AMSC	AMERICAN SUPERCONDUCTOR
BWLD	BUFFALO WILD WINGS
SGP	Schering Plough Weekly
RHT	RED HAT INC.
RGR	STURM RUGER INC.
ORCL	Oracle Inc.
AAPL	Apple Computer
JPM	JP Morgan Chase
SBUX	Starbucks
F	Ford Weekly
EDU	NEW ORIENTAL EDUCATION & TECH GROUP
KUSMX	DWS GOVERNMENT SECURITIES
DHI	DR Horton Inc.
SSTGX	DWS GLOBAL BOND FUND
UNH	United Healthcare
IBM	International Business Machines
HD	Home Depot
BAC	Bank of America Weekly
CA	Computer Associates Inc
IAU	IShares Comex Gold Trust
BLK	BLACKROCK
EOC	EMPRESSA ELECTRICAL S.A.
HPQ	Hewlett-Packard

Top 30 Momentum 3-week Differential
HURN	HURON CONSULTING
MRK	Merck Pharmaceuticals Weekly
HAL	HALIBURTON
PCLN	PRICELINE
TMX	Mexico Telecom
GES	GUESS INC
WMT	Wal-Mart Stores
RGR	STURM RUGER INC.
UTX	United Technologies
MCD	McDonald's
HOV	Hovnanian Enterprises
SGINX	DWS GNMA S. FUND
BAC	Bank of America Weekly
PFE	Pfizer
BMY	Bristol Meyers Squibb
^FTSE	FTSE 100 London Index
SJPNX	Scudder Japan Fund
INTC	Intel
MSFT	Microsoft
BA	Boeing
BJS	BJ Services
FNM	Fannie Mae
CA	Computer Associates Inc
^DRG	Amex Pharmaceutical Index
HPQ	Hewlett-Packard
SCHLX	DWS HEALTH CARE FUND
UNH	United Healthcare
^FCHI	CAC Paris Index
SGP	Schering Plough Weekly
^SMSI	Madrid General Index

Bottom 30 Momentum M5 Trailers (30-1)
MGM	MGM MIRAGE
FXM	Mexican Peso ETF
TWX	Time Warner Weekly
BHI	BAKER HUGHES INC
FMCN	FOCUS MEDIA HOLDING GROUP
WMT	Wal-Mart Stores
GE	General Electric
HMY	Harmony Gold Mining
XOM	Exxon Mobile
C	Citigroup
MCD	McDonald's
COP	Conoco Philips Inc
PNC	PNC Financial Svc Weekly
GMGMQ.PK	General Motors
ERTS	Electronic Arts
DRYS	Dry Ships Weekly
FST	FOREST OIL CORP
ELY	Callahan Golf
PG	Procter & Gamble
FSLR	FIRST SOLAR
UUP	POWERSHARES DB US DOLLAR BULLISH
^VIX	CBOE Volatility Index
DOG	Short DOW 30
MYY	Short Midcap Index ETF
SH	Short SP 500 ETF
PSQ	Short QQQ Index ETF
DXD	Short Dow Index ETF
QID	Short Nasdaq Index ETF
HURN	HURON CONSULTING
TBT	Ultrashort T-Bond 20+ Year ETF

Bottom 30 M5 3-week differential
PEP	Pepsi
MMM	Minn. Mining & Manufacturing
^TWII	TSEC WEIGHTED TAIWAN INDEX
HK	PETROHAWK ENERGY
UUP	POWERSHARES DB US DOLLAR BULLISH
AMSC	AMERICAN SUPERCONDUCTOR
^HSI	HANG SENG INDEX
DXD	Short Dow Index ETF
HLF	HERBALLIFE CORP
^HUI	Gold Stock Index
NEM	Newmont Mining
IAU	IShares Comex Gold Trust
FXB	British Pound ETF
GG	Goldcorp
DOG	Short DOW 30
DWSN	DAWSON GEOPHYSICAL COMPANY
CSUN	China Sunergy Weekly
BBY	Best Buy Inc.
NKE	Nike Inc.
ACH	ALUMINUM COMPANY OF CHINA
^SSEC	Shanghai Index
FSLR	FIRST SOLAR
EDU	NEW ORIENTAL EDUCATION & TECH GROUP
F	Ford Weekly
AMGN	Amgen Corp
EOC	EMPRESSA ELECTRICAL S.A.
TEVA	Teva Labs
^TYX	30 YEAR TREASURY BOND
ECH	I-SHARES MSCI CHILEAN INDEX
TBT	Ultrashort T-Bond 20+ Year ETF

NEW TRADES FOR THIS WEEK
8/28/09
M5 7	Out @	In @	Gain	Date In
sell PCLN	156.47	116.08	34.79%	07/17/09
	In @	Position	SHARES
TWII	6809.86	ent long	1
GG	37.08	ent long	270
M5 10	In @	Position	SHARES
ECH	45.25	ent long	221
M2F alt trade
NONE
Momentum	In @	Position	SHARES
HURN	18.93	ent long	528
INTC	20.25	ent long	494
M2F alt LT 2
NONE
M4 Sum Plus Rev
NONE
M4 Sum Plus Rev 2	In @	Position	SHARES
TWII	6809.86	ent long	1
SLM	8.97	ent long	1115
UUP	23.28	ent short	-430
SLGLF	0.017	ent short	-588235
M4 sum	In @	Position	SHARES
TWII	6809.86	ent long	1
SLM	8.97	ent long	1115
M4 Sum Plus LT	In @	Position	SHARES
AIG	50.23	ENT LONG	199
mA 5/MA40 LT	In @	Position	SHARES
PEIX	0.447	ent long	22371

Everyone, have a good weekend.

More information on this system can be found at
www.home.mindspring.com/~mclark7/CGTS09.htm


Those interested in reading a draft of 'Turn Out the Lights', my description of the metaphysical causes of the financial collapse, can find it at:

www.hoalantrangallery.com/Turnoutlights.htm

 

Michael J. Clark
Clark's Gate Timing System
Hanoi, Vietnam
84 4 221 92210

Disclosure: the author personally owns none of the issues mentioned in this article.