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Michael Clark
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Michael J. Clark was born and raised in Sinclair, Wyoming. He is a poet, novelist, artist, historian, and market analyst. His fine arts portfolio can be found at the following address: http://www.hoalantrangallery.com/MJC2.htm His writing portfolio can be found at:... More
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Clark's Gate Timing System ©
  • CLARK'S GATE TIMING SYSTEM WEEKEND EDITION FOR 18 SEPTEMBER 2009 0 comments
    Sep 20, 2009 7:56 AM | about stocks: AMGN, EL, C, ADBE, ELY, DWSN, BAC, EA, AMAT, DHI, DBO, UUP, IBM, UHN, ENMDD, SLM, FXB, HOV, EOC
    CGTS WEEKEND EDITION 
    18 SEPTEMBER 2009


    I do not think it reasonable that public money --taxpayer money -- be indirectly available to support risk-prone capital market activities simply because they are housed within a commercial banking organization.

    Paul Volcker, 2009.


    Readers should check out a couple of instablogs from Bob English this week.  Bob has found the smoking gun showing that the Fed has been financing this phantom rally in stocks; and Bob has many insights into why and when the rally won't end, and why and when the rally may begn to get into trouble.

    seekingalpha.com/article/162305-funding-a-rally-extension#comment-683606

    seekingalpha.com/article/161925-another-185b-could-soon-hit-the-markets-as-u-s-approaches-debt-ceiling#comment-683613

    I'm not sure that the Fed's funding stock and bond market rallies is legal.    The Fed impetus is to help preserve the capital of banks and insurance companies they have already bailed out to the tune of ???billions of dollars -- essentially helping to provide private companies with avenues to acquire more money without directly involving bailouts using tax-payer money, which is politically costly.  This seems like insider trading in its most naked form -- fixing the markets so that all the casinos can get healthy again.  Is this what free-market capitalism is all about?

    I'm not sure I'm much a believer in free-market capitalism -- I think the game has been fixed for centuries and what we are seeing today is just a fluke nakedness of the game the way it has always been played, although a very extreme version today -- the tide has come down to expose all the corruption and the criminality in the light of day.

    We keep trading.  The markets keep floating upward -- the markets are being fellated upward....seems to have no intention of coming back down again.  That's what bubbles are -- until they pop or develop a leak.

    Keep your eye on your money market funds.  Late this week the federal protection of money markets expired.  Make sure your balance doesn't start to diminish.  I would be surprised if it did -- but this has been a year of surprises, hasn't it?

    We continue to be almost 95% long in the market.  Our weekly portfolio is up 49.19% for the year.  Our best trading systems  are our short-term trading systems M5 7 (up 145.75%) and M5 10 (up 222.93%) -- and then our long-term system M4 Sum Plus Long-Term (up 88.14%)


    % Gain Weekly Trades Profit Active Active First
      9/20/09     Trades Cost Trade
                 
    145.75% M5 7 Tr Syst   $160,323 11 110000 1/9/09
    222.93% M5 10 Tr Syst   $89,171 4 40000 3/6/09
    4.09% M2F alt Trade   $1,638 4 40000 8/14/09
    5.70% M2F alt LT   $2,851 5 50000 7/9/09
    14.05% Momentum   $66,049 47 470000 6/26/09
    20.07% M4 Sum Plus   $90,334 45 450000 7/17/09
    88.14% M4 Sum Plus LT   $431,896 49 490000 2/20/09
    46.12% MA5 MA 40 LT   $161,422 35 350000 3/20/09
    11.85% M4 Sum Plus Rev   $4,738 4 40000 8/21/09
    0.01% M5 Sum Plus Avg   $1 1 10000 9/5/09
    49.19% Total   $1,008,424 205 $2,050,000  

    This rally is for real -- and we are still long and adding to our long positions but we are looking at some issues through the lens of our M5 Indicator to try to gauge the real momentum of the markets.  M5 tends to lead the price of issues, pulling up before the price does, and pulling down while the price is still climbing.  We want to show a few issues this week and look at what M5 is telling us about them.

    First we look at a few indexes: We show three pictures of the Taiwan Index, hoping to show how the M5 Indicator looks in different stages: the first chart shows mainly the healthy rally, with M5 leading the rally; also, we can get a glimpse of the M5 fall on the right side of the chart.  The second TWII chart shows how M5 led the TWII down.  The third chart is the current chart of TWII -- the price has been rallying strongly -- but M5 seems to have been expecting a decline.



    How do other indexes look now.  Almost all the American and European indexes look fine.  Asian indexes do not look so good.  I show the DJIA (Industrials) and tell you that American and European indexes all look much the same in term of M5.  It looks like Asian stocks really want to go lower, in terms of M5.



    How do individual stocks look?  Please note: the Adobe stock is not a current picture, but a picture back in March 09 showing what a healthy rally looks like, in the beginning.  Adobe's current picture is relatively healthy, although it has topped for the short-term.  Applied Materials (AMAT) does not look so good.  AMGN is currently attempting to bottom but the M5 is not especially positive.  Citicorp is quite negative; we expect this one to go lower.  DHI seems to be hitting overhead resistance; and M5 could go either way.  Dawson is a very negative M5 picture at the moment.  The rally in Callahan Golf seems to still be in good shape.  I would remind the reader that trend readings are even more important than momentum readings in terms of see where the market is going.  Momentum indicators can be overpowered by strong trends.  Momentum indicators 'predict' what the trends will do; but trends have the last word.



    What about Oil, the US. Dollar, the VIX index?  DBO (Oil ETF) is suggesting that oil is going lower.  It is trying to bottom at the moment, and might have another leg up, in fact.  The U.S. Dollar (UUP, Bullish Dollar ETF) hasn't had a chance, not since Ben Bernanke has made it his personal mission to further emasculate the money in our pocket.  An attempted streangthening was quashed in early September.  I don't see much hope for the Dollar until Ben decides that bond yields should move with supply and demand instead of with Ben's ideology.   The VIX is predicting a rally (a concurrent decline in stocks), but as long as Ben and his thugs at the investment banks are playing Hans Brinker with their thumbs stuck in NYSE holes that sprout up, we have to understand that their will be no stock correction until the Fed demands it or loses its power to hold back a wall of water building by the second.  How strong is Ben Bernanke?  He doesn't look that strong -- but he has a lot of goons behind him that don't want prices (of anything) to come down.  Clearly the rich like the poor paying more and more for the goods and services that they own.  Deflation is God's way of punishing the greedy for their distemper and their lack of modesty.



    MOMENTUM READINGS


    Our strongest momentum readings in our database of stocks for the whole year remain fairly consistent with last week.  Along with this list we are also showing issues with the strongest momentum gains in the last three weeks.  You will notice a lot of precious metals appearing again in this second group.  With Bernanke's insistence upon buying every TBond that no one else wants, in order to keep interest rates down, dollar weakness is a given and gold strength continues to go along with that.  What happens when Ben hiccups, or leaves the room for an emergency of continence, no telling what will happen.  But for now, gold and silver look like the only currencies in the world that are worth their weight in gold.

    The weakest momentum 'leaders' in our database are old songs: ETF Shorts, bankrupt bailout-kings and relaltives of the same (AIG, Citicorp, SLM), and some surprise names: McDonalds, Walmart, Conoco Phillips), and a few issues that seem destined to crash through March lows before any others do: Electronic Arts, Dry Ships, Verizon and First Solar.

    Those showing special weakness over the last three weeks -- such as Amgen, Merck, Teva Labs, SGP, BAC and HOV -- should be watched carefully as they may either be pulling back for another buying opportunity or they may be beginning the topping process.  Interesting to see all the pharmaceuticals showing up together.  Are they a buy?  In fact, we are getting buy signals on AMGN, HOV, and ENMD from our list of weakest-momentumed issues over the last three weeks.  (See below.)

    TOP 30 MOMENTUM WINNERS (M5 INDICATOR: YEAR
       
    HAL HALIBURTON
    PCLN PRICELINE
    MRK Merck Pharmaceuticals Weekly
    EMC EMC Corp
    SGINX DWS GNMA S. FUND
    AMSC AMERICAN SUPERCONDUCTOR
    IAU IShares Comex Gold Trust
    RHT RED HAT INC.
    ECH I-SHARES MSCI CHILEAN INDEX
    TEVA Teva Labs
    GG Goldcorp
    EDU NEW ORIENTAL EDUCATION & TECH GROUP
    BWLD BUFFALO WILD WINGS
    SSTGX DWS GLOBAL BOND FUND
    AAPL Apple Computer
    SBUX Starbucks
    SGP Schering Plough Weekly
    ^HUI Gold Stock Index
    JPM JP Morgan Chase
    IBM International Business Machines
    HD Home Depot
    BEN Franklin Resources
    ^XAU Philadelphia Gold and Silver Stock Index
    IBB Biotech ETF
    HPQ Hewlett-Packard
    ORCL Oracle Inc.
    GES GUESS INC
    HMY Harmony Gold Mining
    ^KS11 KOSPI South Korean Index
    RGR STURM RUGER INC.


    TOP 30 MOMENTUM WINNERS (M5 INDICATOR: LAST THREE WEEKS
       
    TBT Ultrashort T-Bond 20+ Year ETF
    HMY Harmony Gold Mining
    IAU IShares Comex Gold Trust
    HAL HALIBURTON
    GG Goldcorp
    NEM Newmont Mining
    ^HUI Gold Stock Index
    HURN HURON CONSULTING
    ^XAU Philadelphia Gold and Silver Stock Index
    HK PETROHAWK ENERGY
    UPS United Parcel Services
    PDE PRIDE INTERNATIONAL
    KO Coca-Cola
    BJS BJ Services
    SCGDX Scudder Gold Fund
    ABX Barricks Gold Company
    FSLR FIRST SOLAR
    RHT RED HAT INC.
    PG Procter & Gamble
    EQR Equity Residential
    FXE Euro vs Dollar ETF
    XME Spider Metals and Mining ETF
    UDN POWERSHARES DB US DOLLAR BEARISH
    RS RELIANCE STEEL
    CDE Coeur D'Alene Silver Mining
    AMSC AMERICAN SUPERCONDUCTOR
    KBH KBH Home Builders
    YHOO Yahoo Weekly
    KSU KANSAS CITY SOUTHERN
    ^DJT Dow Jones Transport Index


    BOTTOM 30 MOMENTUM LOSERS (M5 INDICATOR: YEAR
       
    SLM Sallie Mae Inc.
    TWX Time Warner Weekly
    XGCSX Scudder Global Commodities Fund
    PEIX PACIFIC ETHANOL
    AIG American International Group
    PG Procter & Gamble
    FMCN FOCUS MEDIA HOLDING GROUP
    PNC PNC Financial Svc Weekly
    VZ Verizon Communications
    FXM Mexican Peso ETF
    FSLR FIRST SOLAR
    COP Conoco Philips Inc
    ELY Callahan Golf
    FST FOREST OIL CORP
    XOM Exxon Mobile
    C Citigroup
    DRYS Dry Ships Weekly
    ERTS Electronic Arts
    MCD McDonald's
    WMT Wal-Mart Stores
    ^VIX CBOE Volatility Index
    DOG Short DOW 30
    UUP POWERSHARES DB US DOLLAR BULLISH
    MYY Short Midcap Index ETF
    SH Short SP 500 ETF
    DXD Short Dow Index ETF
    QID Short Nasdaq Index ETF
    PSQ Short QQQ Index ETF
    HURN HURON CONSULTING
    TBT Ultrashort T-Bond 20+ Year ETF


    BOTTOM 30 MOMENTUM LOSERS (M5 INDICATOR: LAST THREE WEEKS
       
    PCLN PRICELINE
    ^TYX 30 YEAR TREASURY BOND
    PSQ Short QQQ Index ETF
    SH Short SP 500 ETF
    FITB Fifth Third Bancorp Weekly
    MKL Merkel Weekly
    PFE Pfizer
    INTC Intel
    TXN Texas Instruments
    MCD McDonald's
    PDLI Protein Design Labs Inc.
    CA Computer Associates Inc
    AMGN Amgen Corp
    DOG Short DOW 30
    DHI DR Horton Inc.
    SGP Schering Plough Weekly
    UNH United Healthcare
    BAC Bank of America Weekly
    ENMD Entremed Corp
    HOV Hovnanian Enterprises
    MYY Short Midcap Index ETF
    ORCL Oracle Inc.
    WMT Wal-Mart Stores
    VZ Verizon Communications
    F Ford Weekly
    RGR STURM RUGER INC.
    MRK Merck Pharmaceuticals Weekly
    QCOM QUALCOM CORP
    UUP POWERSHARES DB US DOLLAR BULLISH
    TEVA Teva Labs





    NEW SIGNALS FOR THE WEEK
    We sold Sallie Mae's long positon for a loss of 7%.  We sold our long position in the Semiconductor Index for a gain of 8.36%.  We have new short and long positions for the week (see below).

    9/18/09          
    Weekly          
    M2F alt Trading System        
    Issue Price Position Shares    
    IBM 122.11 Enter Long 81.89    
    UHN (30) 25.33 Enter Long 394.79    
    ENMD 30) 0.475 Enter Long 21052.63    
               
    M5 7 Trading System        
    Issue Close @ Position Open @ Date % Gain
    SLM 8.81 Exit Long 9.47 8/7/09 -6.97%
    Issue Price Position Shares    
    EL 36.79 Enter Long 271.81    
    FXB (30) 162.07 Enter Short -61.70    
    HOV (30) 4.61 Enter Long 2169.20    
    ENMD (30) 0.475 Enter Long 21052.63    
               
    M5 10 Trading System        
    Issue Close @ Position Open @ Date % Gain
    SOXX 326.48 Exit Long 301.3 8/21/09 8.36%
    Issue Price Position Shares    
    AMGN (30) 60.8 Enter Long 164.47    
    EL (30) 36.79 Enter Long 271.81    
               
    M2F ALT LT 2 Trading System      
    Issue Price Position Shares    
    EOC 47.53 Enter Long 210.39    
    AMGN 60.8 Enter Long 164.47    
               
    M4 sum Plus Trade        
    no trades          
               
    Momentum          
    No Trades.          
               
    M4 Sum Plus LT        
    No Trades.          
               
    MA5/MA 40 T        
    No Trade          
               
    M4 Sum Reverse        
    No Trades          
               
    M5 Average Sum Plus        
    No Trades          


    Everyone, have a good weekend.

    More information on this system can be found at
    www.home.mindspring.com/~mclark7/CGTS09.htm


    Those interested in reading a draft of 'Turn Out the Lights', my description of the metaphysical causes of the financial collapse, can find it at:

    www.hoalantrangallery.com/Turnoutlights.htm

     

    Michael J. Clark
    Clark's Gate Timing System
    Hanoi, Vietnam
    84 4 221 92210

    Disclosure: the author personally owns none of the issues mentioned in this article.



    Stocks: AMGN, EL, C, ADBE, ELY, DWSN, BAC, EA, AMAT, DHI, DBO, UUP, IBM, UHN, ENMDD, SLM, FXB, HOV, EOC
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