Michael Clark's  Instablog

Michael Clark
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Michael J. Clark was born and raised in Sinclair, Wyoming. He is a poet, novelist, artist, historian, and market analyst. His fine arts portfolio can be found at the following address: http://www.hoalantrangallery.com/MJC2.htm His writing portfolio can be found at:... More
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Clark's Gate Timing System ©
    May 4, 2014 3:40 AM

    We should be afraid of shorting in this market, this decline-proof market.

    Is it in the Fed charter to ensure stocks appreciate? I think not. I think this is a breach of the Fed charter. I think it would be a breach of the Fed charter if it were discovered that the Fed had given millions or billions of dollars to foreign bankers and banks for 'future considerations'....

    Two charts that look very much alike. The Labor Force Participation Rate (thank you Zero Hedge); and the Home Ownership Participation Rate (thank you David Kranzler). Is it a coincidence that these charts have the same shape? Or does the fact that millions of Americans have given up finding work and the lowest level of home ownership in America exists since 1995?

    How dare we short stocks in this exuberant Bull Market with rising tides of employment and....debt?

    Don't expect a recovery in US housing until we have a recovery in the US employment participation rate. Wall Street bandaids for housing are short-term fixes designed to stall until the next wave of economic growth comes. That wave is not suppored to start until 2019, in baby steps, two up and one down. But the 2019 growth season start depends upon 1) and ambitious destruction of existing debt (debt is a burden that prohibits flight) through defaults and bankruptcies; 2) the increase of interest rates and the shifting of investment preference away from speculators back to savers; 3) a shift from focus on global economics back to national economics. In other words, that 'beggar thy neighbors' policy of protectionism and 'self-reliance' that inaugurates the austerity phase of the drying out process. We get to pay for our party after all, I guess.

    I've been accused of being long-winded, an accusation to which I admit. That's why I like pictures. To those who claim America is 'unwinding' its debt,to de-leverage when interest rates are kept by Fed-mandate to the lowest rate in history?

    The chart attempts to tell the story of US Debt Owed PER AMERICAN. Note the attempt to pull back in 2001, when interest rates SHOULD have been raised. Note also the picture of de-leveraging after 2009. Feeble attempt. Less American debt means less funding of US banks means...more banking crises. Is this the picture of the rock, or the hard place? It is a picture of a lack of political will, at least to my mind.

    Short ideas? Number one: VPRT, Vistaprint. VPRT has gone through one wave of selling. The CGTS system says it will go lower.

    (click to enlarge)

    INFY, Infosystems. We have been short. We are adding to our short position. INFY rallied in the last week; but the rally was very weak. See the brown line in the top pane, M2F ALT, overbought -- and all the trends are saying more selling to come.

    (click to enlarge)

    ADOBE is struggling. It is hovering above long-term support; and the trends are suggesting it will break support, and sink. We want it to break through support however, at 60.47; so this is on a watch list for us.

    (click to enlarge)Beautiful Sunday in Hanoi. A good weekend to you all.

    Michael J. Clark, CGTS

    Hanoi, Vietnam 5/4/2014

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