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Michael Clark
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Michael J. Clark was born and raised in Sinclair, Wyoming. He is a poet, novelist, artist, historian, and market analyst. His fine arts portfolio can be found at the following address: http://www.hoalantrangallery.com/MJC2.htm His writing portfolio can be found at:... More
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Clark's Gate Timing System ©
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TURN OUT THE LIGHTS
  • CGTS DAILY -- THURSDAY 8 OCTOBER 2009 2 comments
    Oct 8, 2009 4:06 AM | about stocks: MSFT, GLD, IAU, GLD, UUP, GG, UDN, BBD, PFE, IBM, PCLN, AA, DGZ, PG, MTL, SNE


    Clark's
    Gate Timing System
    Thursday 8 October
    2009
     

     

    There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crises should come sooner as the result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved.

     - Ludwig von Mises.

     



    INDEX VIEW
     
    We're engaged in quite a struggle between buyers and sellers now.  But if more selling doesn't come in, this may just be a consolidation of buyers at a higher plateau.  Two positive indexes at the moment are BVSP, Bovespa, Brazil (not shown) and AORD, Aussie All Ordinaries Index.  But the Aussie Index, despite its power at the moment, as it seems posied to make a new high, still is showing sluggish M5 momentum, which makes me think it might have trouble sustaining its rally.  The Aussie chart shows the 3 stages of M5 during a rally cycle, for those who might be interested.



    BKX, Banking Index: still in a consolidation phase, stuck between a high of 48.16 and a low of 43.72.  M5 is still declining, meaning buyers are not really very strong either, at this point.



    GSPC, S&P 500: Put in new and higher support at 1018.95.  This is bullish.  Now if it can get through resistance at 1080.15, the bull is still roaring.



    HGX, Housing Index: Looks to be going lower.  It put in a short-term support level at 95.54; but it looks like it is going to fall through that level pretty quickly.  M5 is still very weak.



    HSI, Hang Seng (Hong Kong, China): Looks strong.  Put in new higher support at 20323.59.  Bullish.  Now must take out resistance at 21827.08 for confirmation of the bull rally here.



    HUI, Gold Stock Index: Note how this index fell to support and stopped falling, tested this level twice, then rallied up, breaking a first level of resistance and now touching the previous high (resistance) at 448.31.  If it takes out this level, it should move up quickly to its next plateau.  Bullish.


    N225, Nikkei, Japan.  Bearish picture.  Shattered old support level.  And it looks like its current finger up is ready to turn back down.  Support at 9166.63.




    VIX, CRB Volatility Index (anti-stock index): right at support, so today's trading is vital for VIX to continue its rally.  Support is at 24.54.  VIX is trading today at 24.68.  Today will tell us something about the stock market rally.




    Commodity Indexes/ETF's.

    DBO: Oil, ETF.  The few-day rally in oil seems about over.  DBO has rallied up to its upper channel line but seems poised now to revert down and test the 22.5 level.



    FIO, Industrial/Office REIT ETF (Commercial Real Estate).  Why did this ETF ever rally?  I don't have a clue.  But the rally seems to be breaking down, with lower highs and lower lows (red line, top pane).  The short-trend upleg is breaking down and seems certain to go lower.  M5 is dismal.



    GAZ, Natural Gas ETF:Should go higher.  It is attempting to break through resistance here and I'm believing it will.



    UGA, Gasoline ETF: Banging up against the top of the down channel line.  Very similar to the DBO chart.  It looks destined to fall back to the bottom channel line, around 27.5.



    Below I show the three ETF's which are bottoming and indicating that the Bull Rally (Bear Trap Rally) is ending.  These Ultrashort ETFs NEED to remain positive.  So far they are, even with a rally in stocks happening.  Healthcare, Real Estate, Industrials are all signalling a bottom.





    KEY: COLUMN 1: SYMBOL OF INDEX/ETF; COLUMN 2: M2F ALT = short-term momentum: above 70 = overbought; below 30 = oversold; COLUMN 3: 'TRADE" = current position using M4 Sum Plus Trade System.  COLUMN 4: "TREND" = short-term trend DIRECTION: above 0 is positive; below 0 is negative.  COLUMN 5: "M4 SP+" = issues with at least 2 consecutive days of positive M4 Sum Plus will register a 1.  COLUMN 6: 'M4 SP -" = issues with at least 2 consecutive days of negative M4 Sum Plus will register a 1.   COLUMN 7: "INT MOM" = M5 Average Sum Plus, which is an intermediate-term momentum indicator: 1 is positive; -1 is negative.  COLUMN 8: "LTERM MOM" = MA 40 Sum Plus, which is a long-term momentum indicator: +1 is positive; -1 is negative.  COLUMN 9: Name of Index.

     

    DAILY INDEXES              
    7-Oct M2F Alt Trade Short Trend M4 SP+ M4 SP- Int Mom LT Mom Issue
    ^AORD_D 65.78 Flat 18.31 0.00 0.00 -1.00 1.00 All Ordinaries Australian Index
    ^BKX_D 85.22 Flat -0.13 0.00 0.00 -1.00 1.00 Banking Index
    ^BVSP_D 99.425 Long 225.67 1.00 0.00 -1.00 1.00 BOLIVIAN INDEX
    ^DJI_D 83.394 Flat 25.47 0.00 0.00 -1.00 1.00 DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE
    ^DJT_D 85.576 Flat -14.46 0.00 0.00 -1.00 1.00 Dow Jones Transport Index
    ^DRG_D 79.424 Flat 0.51 0.00 0.00 -1.00 1.00 Pharmaceutical Index
    ^FCHI_D 65.245 Flat 12.28 0.00 0.00 -1.00 1.00 CAC French Index
    ^FTSE_D 68.756 Flat 15.83 0.00 0.00 -1.00 1.00 FTSE Daily Index
    ^GDAXI_D 68.777 Flat 16.43 0.00 0.00 -1.00 1.00 DAX German Index Daily
    ^GSPC_D 82.272 Flat 2.88 0.00 0.00 -1.00 1.00 S&P 500 Index
    ^HGX_D 54.13 Flat -1.13 0.00 0.00 -1.00 -1.00 Philadelphia Housing Sector Index Daily
    ^HSI_D 93.895 Long -38.79 1.00 0.00 1.00 1.00 HANG SENG INDEX HONG KONG
    ^HUI_D 92.909 Long 16.17 1.00 0.00 1.00 1.00 Gold Stock Index Daily
    ^JPN_D 14.65 Flat -0.30 0.00 0.00 -1.00 -1.00 Japan Index
    ^KS11_D 5.988 Flat -10.71 0.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 Kospi South Korean Index
    ^N225_D 31.07 Flat -22.25 0.00 0.00 -1.00 -1.00 Nikei Japan Index
    ^NDX_D 70.554 Flat 4.85 0.00 0.00 -1.00 1.00 Nasdaq Index Daily
    ^OEX_D 83.475 Flat 1.25 0.00 0.00 -1.00 1.00 S&P 100 Index
    ^RUT_D 80.558 Flat -1.69 0.00 0.00 -1.00 1.00 Russell SMall Cap Index Daily
    ^SMSI_D 79.733 Flat 4.03 0.00 0.00 -1.00 1.00 Madrid General Index Daily
    ^SOXX_D 67.721 Flat -1.34 0.00 0.00 -1.00 1.00 Phildelphia Semiconductor Index
    ^SSEC_D 0 Flat -35.31 0.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 Shanghai Composite
    ^SSMI_D 58.479 Flat 16.23 0.00 0.00 -1.00 1.00 Swiss Index Daily
    ^TWII_D 98.079 Long 30.38 1.00 0.00 1.00 1.00 TAIWAN WEIGHTED INDEX
    ^TYX_D 64.173 Flat -0.02 0.00 0.00 -1.00 -1.00 30 YEAR TREASURY YIELD
    ^UTY_D 70.761 Flat 0.56 0.00 0.00 -1.00 -1.00 Utility Index
    ^VIX_D 12.239 Flat -1.33 0.00 0.00 -1.00 -1.00 CRB Volatility Index Daily
    ^XAU_D 92.48 Long 5.88 1.00 0.00 1.00 1.00 Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index Daily
    ^XCI_D 74.426 Flat 2.29 0.00 0.00 -1.00 1.00 Amex Computer Index Daily
    ^XOI_D 87.399 Flat -2.02 0.00 0.00 -1.00 1.00 Oil Stock Index
    CUT_D 80.864 Flat -0.03 0.00 0.00 -1.00 1.00 TIMBER ETF
    DBO_D 39.175 Flat 0.12 0.00 0.00 -1.00 -1.00 OIL POWERSHARES DB
    FIO_D 46.369 Flat -0.18 0.00 0.00 -1.00 1.00 Industrial/Office REIT ETF
    GAZ_D 91.803 Long 0.24 0.00 0.00 1.00 1.00 Natural Gas ETF
    IAU_D 100 Long 0.21 1.00 0.00 1.00 1.00 Gold Daily
    JJC_D 75.866 Flat -0.16 0.00 0.00 -1.00 1.00 Copper ETF
    JJM_D 67.714 Long -0.071 0.00 0.00 -1.00 1.00 Industrial Metals ETN
    RXD_D 34.725 Flat 0.1 0.00 0.00 1.00 -1.00 Short Healthcare ETF Daily
    SIJ_D 22.289 Flat -0.585 0.00 0.00 1.00 -1.00 Short Industrials ETF Daily
    SRS_D 22.842 Flat -0.176 0.00 0.00 1.00 -1.00 Short Real Estate ETF Daily
    UGA_D 54.634 Flat 0.204 0.00 0.00 -1.00 -1.00 US Gasoline ETF
    UHN_D 37.021 Flat 0.144 0.00 0.00 -1.00 -1.00 Heating Oil ETF
    UUP_D 2.899 Short -0.028 0.00 -1.00 -1.00 -1.00 US DOLLAR INDEX BULLISH ETF

    CURRENCY VIEW

    No new trades in currencies today.



    KEY: COLUMN 1: Currency Pair Symbol; COLUMN 2: Closing Price; COLUMN 3: New Short-Term Trade; COLUMN 4: Current Short-Term Position; COLUMN 5: New Long-Term Trade; COLUMN 6: Current Long-Term Positon; COLUMN 6: Currency Pair Name


    CURRENCY              
    10/8/09              
    CUR PAIR CLOSE NEW ST TR ST POS NEW LT TR LT POS ISSUE  
                   
    AUDCAD=X 10/8/09 0.952   Long   Long Australian Dollar/Canadian Dollar
    AUDCNY=X 10/8/09 6.161   Flat   Long Australian Dollar/Chinese Yuan
    AUDJPY=X 10/8/09 79.678   Flat   Long Australian Dollar/Japanese Yen
    AUDNZD=X 10/8/09 1.218   Flat   Short Australian Dollar/New Zealand Dollar
    AUDUSD=X 10/8/09 0.902   Flat   Long Australian Dollar/US Dollar
    CADJPY=X 10/8/09 83.66   Flat   Long Canadian Dollar/Japanese Yen
    CHFJPY=X 10/8/09 85.943   Flat   Short Swiss Franc/Japanese Yen
    EURAUD=X 10/8/09 1.636   Flat   Short Euro/Australian Dollar
    EURCAD=X 10/8/09 1.558   Flat   Short Euro/Canadian Dollar
    EURCHF=X 10/8/09 1.517   Flat   Long Euro/Swiss Franc
    EURCNY=X 10/8/09 10.081   Long   Long Euro/Chinese Yuan
    EURGBP=X 10/8/09 0.922   Flat   Long Euro/British Pound
    EURJPY=X 10/8/09 130.375   Flat   Short Euro/Japanese Yen
    GBPCHF=X 10/8/09 1.645   Flat   Short British Pound/Swiss Franc
    GBPJPY=X 10/8/09 141.334   Flat   Short British Pound/Japanese Yen
    JPYCNY=X 10/8/09 0.077   Flat   Long Japanese Yen/Chinese Yuan
    NZDJPY=X 10/8/09 65.406   Flat   Short New Zealand Dollar/Japanese Yen
    NZDUSD=X 10/8/09 0.74   Flat   Long New Zealand Dollar/US Dollar
    USDCAD=X 10/8/09 1.056   Short   Short US Dollar/Canadian Dollar
    USDCHF=X 10/8/09 1.028   Short   Short US Dollar/Swiss Franc
    USDCNY=X 10/7/09 6.831   Short   Short US Dollar/China Yuan
    USDEUR=X 10/8/09 0.678   Short   Short US Dollar/Euro
    USDGBP=X 10/8/09 0.625   Flat   Long US Dollar/British Pound
    USDJPY=X 10/8/09 88.345   Flat   Short USDollar/Japanese Yen
    USDXAU=X 10/8/09 0.001   Flat   Long US DOLLAR/GOLD

    TODAY'S NEW TRADES

    We closed some trades today (12 winning trades, 2 losing trades).  We'll show a couple charts of trades we .  We're also following some trades we just made (PG, MTL, SNE, MSFT) blow




    M2F ALT TRADING SYSTEM
    Issue Close @ Position Open @ Date % Gain                          
    DGZ 21.47 Exit Short 22.72 9/25/09 5.82%                          
    AA 14.2 Exit Long 13.43 9/28/09 5.73%                          
    PCLN 173.99 Exit Long 162.07 9/25/09 7.35%                          
    IBM 122.78 Exit Long 120.94 9/24/09 1.52%                          
    IAU 102.41 Exit Long 97.13 9/28/09 5.44%                          
    GLD 102.361 Exit Long 97.05 9/28/09 5.47%                          


    M5 10 TRADING SYSTEM
    Issue Close @ Position Open @ Date % Gain                          
    UUP 22.69 Exit Short 22.6 9/22/09 -0.40%                          
    GG 42.18 Exit Long 41.8 9/22/09 0.91%                          
    UDN 28.07 Exit Long 28.18 9/22/09 -0.39%                          
    BBD 19.9 Exit Long 18.81 9/28/09 5.79%                          
    PFE 16.69 Exit Long 16.4 9/28/09 1.77%                          

    M5 D STUDY TRADING SYSTEM
    Issue Close @ Position Open @ Date % Gain                          
    HUI 443.26 Exit Long 398.09 9/28/09 11.35%                          
    IAU 102.41 Exit Long 97.13 9/28/09 5.44%                          
    GLD 102.361 Exit Long 97.05 9/28/09 5.47%                          




     

    More information on this system can be found at

    home.mindspring.com/~mclark7/CGTS09.htm

    A draft of the book Turn Out the Lights can be found at the website below.  This book is a description of the metaphysical causes of the economic cycles of expansion (Day) and contraction (Night).

    www.hoalantrangallery.com/Turnoutlights.htm

     

    Michael J. Clark's Gate Timing System
    Hanoi, Vietnam

    84 4 221 92210


    Stocks: MSFT, GLD, IAU, GLD, UUP, GG, UDN, BBD, PFE, IBM, PCLN, AA, DGZ, PG, MTL, SNE
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Comments (2)
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  • Tom Au, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (6774) | Send Message
     
    Wow! A bunch of markets all laid out. Will need time to digest it all.
    8 Oct 2009, 09:06 AM Reply Like
  • Michael Clark
    , contributor
    Comments (8856) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Let me know what you think, G&D.
    8 Oct 2009, 11:09 AM Reply Like
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