Michael Clark's  Instablog

Clark's Gate Timing System
Thursday 8 October 2009
 

 

There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crises should come sooner as the result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved.

 - Ludwig von Mises.

 

INDEX VIEW
 
We're engaged in quite a struggle between buyers and sellers now.  But if more selling doesn't come in, this may just be a consolidation of buyers at a higher plateau.  Two positive indexes at the moment are BVSP, Bovespa, Brazil (not shown) and AORD, Aussie All Ordinaries Index.  But the Aussie Index, despite its power at the moment, as it seems posied to make a new high, still is showing sluggish M5 momentum, which makes me think it might have trouble sustaining its rally.  The Aussie chart shows the 3 stages of M5 during a rally cycle, for those who might be interested.



BKX, Banking Index: still in a consolidation phase, stuck between a high of 48.16 and a low of 43.72.  M5 is still declining, meaning buyers are not really very strong either, at this point.



GSPC, S&P 500: Put in new and higher support at 1018.95.  This is bullish.  Now if it can get through resistance at 1080.15, the bull is still roaring.



HGX, Housing Index: Looks to be going lower.  It put in a short-term support level at 95.54; but it looks like it is going to fall through that level pretty quickly.  M5 is still very weak.



HSI, Hang Seng (Hong Kong, China): Looks strong.  Put in new higher support at 20323.59.  Bullish.  Now must take out resistance at 21827.08 for confirmation of the bull rally here.



HUI, Gold Stock Index: Note how this index fell to support and stopped falling, tested this level twice, then rallied up, breaking a first level of resistance and now touching the previous high (resistance) at 448.31.  If it takes out this level, it should move up quickly to its next plateau.  Bullish.


N225, Nikkei, Japan.  Bearish picture.  Shattered old support level.  And it looks like its current finger up is ready to turn back down.  Support at 9166.63.




VIX, CRB Volatility Index (anti-stock index): right at support, so today's trading is vital for VIX to continue its rally.  Support is at 24.54.  VIX is trading today at 24.68.  Today will tell us something about the stock market rally.




Commodity Indexes/ETF's.

DBO: Oil, ETF.  The few-day rally in oil seems about over.  DBO has rallied up to its upper channel line but seems poised now to revert down and test the 22.5 level.



FIO, Industrial/Office REIT ETF (Commercial Real Estate).  Why did this ETF ever rally?  I don't have a clue.  But the rally seems to be breaking down, with lower highs and lower lows (red line, top pane).  The short-trend upleg is breaking down and seems certain to go lower.  M5 is dismal.



GAZ, Natural Gas ETF:Should go higher.  It is attempting to break through resistance here and I'm believing it will.



UGA, Gasoline ETF: Banging up against the top of the down channel line.  Very similar to the DBO chart.  It looks destined to fall back to the bottom channel line, around 27.5.


Below I show the three ETF's which are bottoming and indicating that the Bull Rally (Bear Trap Rally) is ending.  These Ultrashort ETFs NEED to remain positive.  So far they are, even with a rally in stocks happening.  Healthcare, Real Estate, Industrials are all signalling a bottom.

KEY: COLUMN 1: SYMBOL OF INDEX/ETF; COLUMN 2: M2F ALT = short-term momentum: above 70 = overbought; below 30 = oversold; COLUMN 3: 'TRADE" = current position using M4 Sum Plus Trade System.  COLUMN 4: "TREND" = short-term trend DIRECTION: above 0 is positive; below 0 is negative.  COLUMN 5: "M4 SP+" = issues with at least 2 consecutive days of positive M4 Sum Plus will register a 1.  COLUMN 6: 'M4 SP -" = issues with at least 2 consecutive days of negative M4 Sum Plus will register a 1.   COLUMN 7: "INT MOM" = M5 Average Sum Plus, which is an intermediate-term momentum indicator: 1 is positive; -1 is negative.  COLUMN 8: "LTERM MOM" = MA 40 Sum Plus, which is a long-term momentum indicator: +1 is positive; -1 is negative.  COLUMN 9: Name of Index.

 

CURRENCY VIEW

No new trades in currencies today.

KEY: COLUMN 1: Currency Pair Symbol; COLUMN 2: Closing Price; COLUMN 3: New Short-Term Trade; COLUMN 4: Current Short-Term Position; COLUMN 5: New Long-Term Trade; COLUMN 6: Current Long-Term Positon; COLUMN 6: Currency Pair Name

We closed some trades today (12 winning trades, 2 losing trades).  We'll show a couple charts of trades we .  We're also following some trades we just made (PG, MTL, SNE, MSFT) blow

home.mindspring.com/~mclark7/CGTS09.htm

A draft of the book Turn Out the Lights can be found at the website below.  This book is a description of the metaphysical causes of the economic cycles of expansion (Day) and contraction (Night).

www.hoalantrangallery.com/Turnoutlights.htm

Michael J. Clark's Gate Timing System
Hanoi, Vietnam

84 4 221 92210