Michael Clark's  Instablog

Clark's Gate Timing System
Tuesday 20 October 2009
 

 

There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crises should come sooner as the result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved.

 - Ludwig von Mises.

 

INDEX VIEW
The markets look poised to go higher.  The VIX has broken down.  All the Ultrashorts (anti-stock) ETFs we follow seem poised to go lower.  We looked at some weekly charts to see how everything looked on the longer-term charts.  We like the way the XAU (Gold/Silver Stock Index) looks.  We like XAU main because of the M5 indicator (first pane, black line) is in a pronounced uptrend.  This is bullish.

We looked at a couple other weekly charts to see how M5 acts before a decline.  In both the Nikkei Index and the Swiss Index, look how M5 became exhausted before a major decline set in last year.  M5 looks ok on the weekly charts of these two indexes.  But their daily charts are showing a similar M5 exhaustion.



This is a warning to us.  M5 exhaustion precedes a price collapse.  Currently, however, no price collapse in sight.  The first real sign of a price collapse will be to have our M2F Alt Sum Plus (bottom pane, brown line) give us two consecutive trading periods below zero.  That is an even stronger warning that the deterioration of M5.  So far, this price deterioration is not showing up in the charts.  We expect prices to go higher.

TODAY'S NEW TRADES
More BUY SIGNALS (see below).  Some we like.  Some we don't like so much.

Our Daily Trading Portfolio is up 16.6% since the first trade on 7/8/09 -- 13 weeks.  The M4 Sum Reverse Trading System has 19 active trades currently, all short trades.  Our system will really outperform the market when markets are allowed to fluctuate up and down.  With the current imposition of Bull Market conditions by the Federal Reserve, our performance of about 45% gain annually will still beat many market participants, even without the normal fluctuations.

	DAILY PORTFOLIO			Active	Active	First
% Gain	10/19/09		Profit	Trades	Cost	Trade
27.47%	M2F alt Trading System		$109,885	40	400000	7/27/09
47.35%	M5 10 Trading System		$104,172	22	220000	6/29/09
14.37%	M2F ALT LT 2 Tr Syst		$181,062	126	1260000	7/8/09
0.26%	M2F ALT LT 2 ST Syst		$103	4	40000	7/8/09
17.62%	M2F ALT LT 2 BEST Tr Syst		$8,811	5	50000	7/8/09
9.21%	M4 Sum Rev Trading System		$17,504	19	190000	8/20/09
14.62%	M4 Sum Plus ST Trad Syst		$26,310	18	180000	8/20/09
7.26%	M5 Diff Study Tr Syst		$46,455	64	640000	6/29/09
18.12%	M5 Average Sum Plus Tr Syst		$5,436	3	30000	9/5/09
16.60%	Total		$499,738	301	$3,010,000
	*Based on $10,000 per trade

Today's trades:
 

19-Oct
MONDAY
M2F Alt Trading System
New Trades
Symbol	Issue	Price	Position	Shares
HURN	Huron Consulting	24.48	Enter Long	408.50
M2F ALT Trade Closed Trades
Issue	Close @	Position	Open @	Date	% Gain
UTY	406.01	Exit Long	397.68	9/24/09	2.09%
BWLD	43.14	Exit Long	42.19	9/25/09	2.25%
M5 10 TRADING SYSTEM
New Trades
Symbol	Issue	Price	Position	Shares
GS	Goldman Sachs	185.5	Enter Long	53.91
SOXX	Semiconductor Index	327.61	Enter Long	30.52
PCLN	Priceline	172.94	Enter Long	57.82
TXN	Texas Instru	23.52	Enter Long	425.17
TWX	Time Warner	31.44	Enter Long	318.07
M5 10 System Closed Trades
Issue	Close @	Position	Open @	Date	% Gain
BNI	86.40	Exit Long	84.03	8/28/09	2.82%
RS	43.75	Exit Long	42.86	9/29/09	2.08%
PDLI	8.97	Exit Long	8.89	9/3/09	0.90%
M2F ALT Sum Plus TR ST
New Trades
Symbol	Issue	Price	Position	Shares
TXN	Texas Inst	23.52	Enter Long	425.17
HURN	Huron Consult	24.48	Enter Long	408.50
M2F ALT Sum Plus TR ST
Issue	Close @	Position	Open @	Date	% Gain
None
M4 Plus ST TRADING SYSTEM
New Trades
Symbol	Issue	Price	Position	Shares
GS	Goldman Sachs	185.5	Enter Long	53.91
IBM	IBM	123.06	Enter Long	81.26
TEVA	Teva Pharm	50.55	Enter Long	197.82
IYR	Real Estate ETF	42.92	Enter Long	232.99
MGM	MGM Mirage	11.8	Enter Long	847.46
HMY	Homestake Min	11.59	Enter Long	862.81
FITB	First Third Bank	10.14	Enter Long	986.19
AAPL	Apple Computer	189.86	Enter Long	52.67
SCGDX	DWS Gold Fund	19.91	Enter Long	502.26
ABX	Amer Barricks Gold	38.98	Enter Long	256.54
EDU	New Orient Edu	81.3	Enter Long	123.00
FLSR	First Solar	152.19	Enter Long	65.71
JNJ	Johnson Johnson	61.16	Enter Long	163.51
M4 Plus ST Ssytem Closed Trades
Issue	Close @	Position	Open @	Date	% Gain
None
M5 D Study TRADING SYSTEM
New Trades
Symbol	Issue	Price	Position	Shares
FXY	Japanese Yen ETF	109.6	Enter Long	91.24
M5D Study System Closed Trades
Issue	Close @	Position	Open @	Date	% Gain
None
M2F ALT SUM PLUS LT 2
New Trades
EDU	New Orient Edu	81.3	Enter Long	123.00
FSLR	First Solar	152.19	Enter Long	65.71
JNJ	Johnson Johnson	61.16	Enter Long	163.51
M2F ALT Sum Plus SystemClosed Trades
Issue	Close @	Position	Open @	Date	% Gain
None
M4 SUM REVERSE TRADING SYSTEM
New Trades
Symbol	Issue	Price	Position	Shares
None
M4 Sum Plus Reverse system Closed Trades
None
M5 AVERAGE SUM PLUS TRADE
New Trades
Symbol	Issue	Price	Position	Shares
None
M5 Average Sum Plus System Closed Trades
None

Below are some charts of stocks we like short-term AAPL, EDU; some updates of positions using our M2F ALT LT 2 trading system (BBY, FMCN, FNM, short); and some buy signals today we are uncomfortable with (FITB, TEVA).  Note how FITB and TEVA has deteriorating momentum (M5, top pane, black line) -- and how trades during M5 deterioration are largely only modestly successful or unsuccessful.  M5 going flat and declining indicates a lot of resistance is forming.

More information on this system can be found at

home.mindspring.com/~mclark7/CGTS09.htm

A draft of the book Turn Out the Lights can be found at the website below.  This book is a description of the metaphysical causes of the economic cycles of expansion (Day) and contraction (Night).

www.hoalantrangallery.com/Turnoutlights.htm

 

Michael J. Clark's Gate Timing System
Hanoi, Vietnam

84 4 221 92210