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CGTS DAILY FOR TUESDAY 20 OCTOBER 2009

|Includes:AAPL, BBY, EDU, Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB), FMCN, MGM


Clark's
Gate Timing System
Tuesday 20 October
2009
 

 

There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crises should come sooner as the result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved.

 - Ludwig von Mises.

 

INDEX VIEW
The markets look poised to go higher.  The VIX has broken down.  All the Ultrashorts (anti-stock) ETFs we follow seem poised to go lower.  We looked at some weekly charts to see how everything looked on the longer-term charts.  We like the way the XAU (Gold/Silver Stock Index) looks.  We like XAU main because of the M5 indicator (first pane, black line) is in a pronounced uptrend.  This is bullish.



We looked at a couple other weekly charts to see how M5 acts before a decline.  In both the Nikkei Index and the Swiss Index, look how M5 became exhausted before a major decline set in last year.  M5 looks ok on the weekly charts of these two indexes.  But their daily charts are showing a similar M5 exhaustion.



This is a warning to us.  M5 exhaustion precedes a price collapse.  Currently, however, no price collapse in sight.  The first real sign of a price collapse will be to have our M2F Alt Sum Plus (bottom pane, brown line) give us two consecutive trading periods below zero.  That is an even stronger warning that the deterioration of M5.  So far, this price deterioration is not showing up in the charts.  We expect prices to go higher.

TODAY'S NEW TRADES

More BUY SIGNALS (see below).  Some we like.  Some we don't like so much.

Our Daily Trading Portfolio is up 16.6% since the first trade on 7/8/09 -- 13 weeks.  The M4 Sum Reverse Trading System has 19 active trades currently, all short trades.  Our system will really outperform the market when markets are allowed to fluctuate up and down.  With the current imposition of Bull Market conditions by the Federal Reserve, our performance of about 45% gain annually will still beat many market participants, even without the normal fluctuations.

  DAILY PORTFOLIO   Active Active First
% Gain 10/19/09   Profit Trades Cost Trade
27.47% M2F alt Trading System   $109,885 40 400000 7/27/09
47.35% M5 10 Trading System   $104,172 22 220000 6/29/09
14.37% M2F ALT LT 2 Tr Syst   $181,062 126 1260000 7/8/09
0.26% M2F ALT LT 2 ST Syst   $103 4 40000 7/8/09
17.62% M2F ALT LT 2 BEST Tr Syst   $8,811 5 50000 7/8/09
9.21% M4 Sum Rev Trading System   $17,504 19 190000 8/20/09
14.62% M4 Sum Plus ST Trad Syst   $26,310 18 180000 8/20/09
7.26% M5 Diff Study Tr Syst   $46,455 64 640000 6/29/09
18.12% M5 Average Sum Plus Tr Syst   $5,436 3 30000 9/5/09
16.60% Total   $499,738 301 $3,010,000  
  *Based on $10,000 per trade      

Today's trades:
 
19-Oct          
MONDAY          
M2F Alt Trading System        
New Trades          
Symbol Issue Price Position Shares  
HURN Huron Consulting 24.48 Enter Long 408.50  
M2F ALT Trade Closed Trades      
Issue Close @ Position Open @ Date % Gain
UTY 406.01 Exit Long 397.68 9/24/09 2.09%
BWLD 43.14 Exit Long 42.19 9/25/09 2.25%
           
M5 10 TRADING SYSTEM        
New Trades          
Symbol Issue Price Position Shares  
GS Goldman Sachs 185.5 Enter Long 53.91  
SOXX Semiconductor Index 327.61 Enter Long 30.52  
PCLN Priceline 172.94 Enter Long 57.82  
TXN Texas Instru 23.52 Enter Long 425.17  
TWX Time Warner 31.44 Enter Long 318.07  
M5 10 System Closed Trades      
Issue Close @ Position Open @ Date % Gain
BNI 86.40 Exit Long 84.03 8/28/09 2.82%
RS 43.75 Exit Long 42.86 9/29/09 2.08%
PDLI 8.97 Exit Long 8.89 9/3/09 0.90%
           
M2F ALT Sum Plus TR ST        
New Trades          
Symbol Issue Price Position Shares  
TXN Texas Inst 23.52 Enter Long 425.17  
HURN Huron Consult 24.48 Enter Long 408.50  
M2F ALT Sum Plus TR ST        
Issue Close @ Position Open @ Date % Gain
None          
           
M4 Plus ST TRADING SYSTEM      
New Trades          
Symbol Issue Price Position Shares  
GS Goldman Sachs 185.5 Enter Long 53.91  
IBM IBM 123.06 Enter Long 81.26  
TEVA Teva Pharm 50.55 Enter Long 197.82  
IYR Real Estate ETF 42.92 Enter Long 232.99  
MGM MGM Mirage 11.8 Enter Long 847.46  
HMY Homestake Min 11.59 Enter Long 862.81  
FITB First Third Bank 10.14 Enter Long 986.19  
AAPL Apple Computer 189.86 Enter Long 52.67  
SCGDX DWS Gold Fund 19.91 Enter Long 502.26  
ABX Amer Barricks Gold 38.98 Enter Long 256.54  
EDU New Orient Edu 81.3 Enter Long 123.00  
FLSR First Solar 152.19 Enter Long 65.71  
JNJ Johnson Johnson 61.16 Enter Long 163.51  
M4 Plus ST Ssytem Closed Trades      
Issue Close @ Position Open @ Date % Gain
None          
           
M5 D Study TRADING SYSTEM      
New Trades          
Symbol Issue Price Position Shares  
FXY Japanese Yen ETF 109.6 Enter Long 91.24  
M5D Study System Closed Trades      
Issue Close @ Position Open @ Date % Gain
None          
           
M2F ALT SUM PLUS LT 2        
New Trades          
EDU New Orient Edu 81.3 Enter Long 123.00  
FSLR First Solar 152.19 Enter Long 65.71  
JNJ Johnson Johnson 61.16 Enter Long 163.51  
M2F ALT Sum Plus SystemClosed Trades    
Issue Close @ Position Open @ Date % Gain
None          
           
M4 SUM REVERSE TRADING SYSTEM      
New Trades          
Symbol Issue Price Position Shares  
None          
M4 Sum Plus Reverse system Closed Trades    
None          
           
M5 AVERAGE SUM PLUS TRADE      
New Trades          
Symbol Issue Price Position Shares  
None          
M5 Average Sum Plus System Closed Trades    
None          

Below are some charts of stocks we like short-term AAPL, EDU; some updates of positions using our M2F ALT LT 2 trading system (BBY, FMCN, FNM, short); and some buy signals today we are uncomfortable with (FITB, TEVA).  Note how FITB and TEVA has deteriorating momentum (M5, top pane, black line) -- and how trades during M5 deterioration are largely only modestly successful or unsuccessful.  M5 going flat and declining indicates a lot of resistance is forming.


More information on this system can be found at

home.mindspring.com/~mclark7/CGTS09.htm

A draft of the book Turn Out the Lights can be found at the website below.  This book is a description of the metaphysical causes of the economic cycles of expansion (Day) and contraction (Night).

www.hoalantrangallery.com/Turnoutlights.htm

 

Michael J. Clark's Gate Timing System
Hanoi, Vietnam

84 4 221 92210

Stocks: FITB, MGM, FMCN, EDU, BBY, AAPL