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CGTS FOR WEDNESDAY, 16 DECEMBER 2009

|Includes:Alcoa, Inc. (AA), MYY, MZZ, NKE, PDLI, SBB, SNE
CLARK'S GATE TIMING SYSTEM ©
Wednesday, 16 December
2009
 

“By a continuing process of inflation, government can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens.”

    -- John Maynard Keynes



This rally is not really awe-inspiring at this point.  We've settled in to a consolidation phase, a sideways move, that might eventually lead higher, but might break down and lead lower.  Fundamentals suggest a lower move.  Technicals are not clear.  However, technicals look pretty negative on two indexes: banking and oil stocks.  See below.

How does the S&P 500 stock index look?  Each rally seems to be getting weaker.  We are currently overbought again (M2F Alt indicator, second pane down) and we really did not make much positive gain this time.

The indexes look VERY tired.  The Bulls (the Inflationistas) are fighting, you've got to give them credit.  But each leg up is getting more difficult; and they are holding a very heavy load on their back each time they seek to advance.  They seem to be getting tired.

2010 is the year (AUTUMN OR DUSK -- see my system outlined in the draft below, Turn Out the Lights) when the forces of expansion (Inflationists) and contraction (Deflationists) are at equal strength.  The market seems to be reflecting this stalemate more and more today.  From 2001 to 2010, Bull strength has been weakening -- 2001 was the apex of Buill Strength -- but it is still stronger than Bear strength.  In 2010, this strength is equal (stalemate); and from 2010- 2019, Bull strength gets weaker and weaker.  In 2019, there are no bulls -- for a moment at least.  Bear strength wins.  And then Bull strength, starting as a point of light, an egg, will begin to grow again in 2019.  But 2010-2019 belongs to the Contractionists, the Bears.  The economy shrinks.  Interest rates rise.  Bankruptcies increase.  And the world winds down its debt.  This will be a very dangerous, difficult season -- but one the world brought on itself by inflating too long, disregarding the Law of Karma, the Seasons of Nature.

Look for continuing international crises over the next decade, including a black swan event in the Middle East, continuing hostility to Chinese trade monopoly tactics (from America, but also from European countries and Asian countries, especially from Japan). 

We took profits (and losses, FRE again) -- profits that are generally meager.  We are trading in a VERY tight range, as the bulls and bears are locked in mortal combat.  Rallies are getting weaker and weaker.   And profits in ultrashort anti-stock ETFs are also getting pinched, which we take to mean a reversal may be at hand.

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DAILY PORTFOLIO


Our daily portfolio is up 12%, with the first trade being on 6/29/09 -- so this is roughly a 25% annualized rate.  Note: we are also including the number of short trades in each portfolio and the percentage of long trades to show how overwhelming the bullish trend is at the moment.  These percentages should begin to change as time goes on. 

 
  DAILY PORTFOLIO   Active Active First Short % Long
% Gain 12/15/09   Profit Trades Cost Trade Trades Trades
13.32% M2F alt Trading System   $143,819 108 1080000 7/27/09 20 81%
9.35% M2F ALT LT 2 Tr Syst   $113,177 121 1210000 7/8/09 15 88%
14.39% M5 10 Trading System   $117,990 82 820000 6/29/09 11 87%
9.83% M5 D Simple   $53,093 54 540000 6/29/09 5 91%
10.50% M5/M5Avg Sum Plus New   $25,207 24 240000 9/5/09 2 92%
                 
11.65% Total   $453,285 389 $3,890,000      
  *Based on $10,000 per trade          
Click to enlarge



DAILY BUY AND SELL SIGNALS

15-Dec          
TUESDAY          
M2F Alt Trading System      
New Trades        
M2F ALT Trade Closed Trades      
Issue Close @ Position Open @ Date % Gain
FRE_D 1.48 Exit Short $1.09 12/4/09 -26.35%
MZZ_D 22.8 Exit Short $25.44 10/27/09 11.58%
RXD_D 34.49 Exit Short $36.26 12/9/09 5.13%
^GDAXI_D 5,811.34 Exit Long $5,709.02 12/10/09 1.79%
NKE_D 64.35 Exit Long $62.57 10/28/09 2.84%
COL_D 56.63 Exit Long $50.24 10/28/09 12.72%
PCU_D 33.26 Exit Long $31.97 12/8/09 4.04%
ACH_D 28.57 Exit Long $27.97 11/23/09 2.15%
O_D 26.48 Exit Long $26.03 12/11/09 1.73%
FIO_D 23.66 Exit Long $23.03 12/11/09 2.74%
M2F alt Trading System New Open Trades    
Issue Price Position Shares    
COW 28.2 Enter Short -354.61    
           
M2F ALT Lterm 2 Trade Closed Trades    
Issue Close @ Position Open @ Date % Gain
None          
M2F alt Lterm 2 Trading System New Open Trades    
Issue Price Position Shares    
PDLI 6.8 Enter Short -1470.59    
           
M5 (10) Trade Closed Trades      
Issue Close @ Position Open @ Date % Gain
SIJ_D 24.06 Exit Short $25.65 11/30/09 6.61%
^DJI_D 10,452.00 Exit Long $10,405.83 12/10/09 0.44%
IBM_D 128.49 Exit Long $126.35 11/30/09 1.69%
BBY_D 41.53 Exit Long $43.21 12/10/09 -3.89%
STJ_D 38.22 Exit Long $37.90 12/10/09 0.84%
BMY_D 25.74 Exit Long $25.54 12/10/09 0.78%
SLM_D 11.58 Exit Long $11.30 12/10/09 2.48%
M5 (10) Trading System New Open Trades    
Issue Price Position Shares    
QCOM 44.88 Enter Long 222.82    
           
M5D Simple Trade Closed Trades      
Issue Close @ Position Open @ Date % Gain
SBB_D 40.42 Exit Short $42.67 10/5/09 5.27%
MYY_D 45.1 Exit Short $48.28 10/5/09 6.59%
^KS11_D 1,662.70 Exit Long $1,644.63 10/5/09 1.10%
SNE_D 28.99 Exit Long $27.17 10/5/09 6.70%
AA_D 14.68 Exit Long $13.43 9/28/09 9.31%
M5D Simple Trading System New Open Trades    
Issue Price Position Shares    
None          
           
M5/M5 Average Sum Plus New Trade Closed Trades  
Issue Close @ Position Open @ Date % Gain
None          
M5/M5 Average Sum Plus New  Trading System New Open Trades
Issue Price Position Shares    
Click to enlarge

Closed Trades:

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New Trade:

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More information on this system can be found at

home.mindspring.com/~mclark7/CGTS09.htm

A draft of the book Turn Out the Lights can be found at the website below.  This book is a description of the metaphysical causes of the economic cycles of expansion (Day) and contraction (Night).

www.hoalantrangallery.com/Turnoutlights.htm
 

Michael J. Clark's Gate Timing System
Hanoi, Vietnam

84 4 221 92210

Disclosure: The author does not own issues mentioned in this article.

Disclosure: Disclosure: The author does not own issues mentioned in this article.
Stocks: AA, MYY, MZZ, NKE, SNE, SBB, PDLI