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Michael Clark
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Michael J. Clark was born and raised in Sinclair, Wyoming. He is a poet, novelist, artist, historian, and market analyst. His fine arts portfolio can be found at the following address: http://www.hoalantrangallery.com/MJC2.htm His writing portfolio can be found at:... More
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Clark's Gate Timing System ©
  • CGTS WEDNESDAY 23 DECEMBER 2009 -- CHINESE INDICES FALTERING 0 comments
    Dec 23, 2009 7:05 AM | about stocks: EL, AAPL, GGB, TMX, KO, EQR, KRE, MTL, NKE, PFE, RHT, COL, FNMA, JO, PCL, UTX
    CLARK'S GATE TIMING SYSTEM
    Wednesday, 23 December 2009
     

    “By a continuing process of inflation, government can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens.”

        -- John Maynard Keynes



    WHAT'S WRONG WITH THIS PICTURE?


    Dollar down; stocks up.  Dollar up; stocks up.  Is it possible that the Fed's continual destruction of the US Dollar since March had nothing to do with the Bear Market Rally?  Are stocks going up on their own merit?  Has it nothing to do with the Fed's policy of bankrolling, backstopping, stocks and bonds?  If the banks can borrow short-term from the Fed for nothing, and funnel funds into risky stocks and bonds, why not?  If stocks appear to be faltering, why not borrow more and buy more?  This is, indeed, a bizarre market we are living through.

    Indexes look pretty good, with the exception of gold stocks, which seem to be approaching a bottom -- and Chinese stocks, which seem to be collapsing.

    The major victim of the US Dollar rally, at least so far, appears to be Chinese stocks.  Funny, Korean and Japanese indexes both seem to be recovering from pretty healthy pullbacks.  Clearly a weakening of the Yen and Won should help Japan and Korean exports.  China understands that it will have NO economic recovery unless exports recover.  If the Dollar rallies, China's currency will also rally -- and Chinese exports will become relatively more expensive, less attractive.  A Dollar rally is a mixed blessing, in that it should make China's investment in American treasuries and securities healthier -- but, unless China's exports to America and Europe recover, China faces economic and, perhaps, social trouble.

    Both the Hang Seng and Shanghai Index look damaged.  The Shanghai Index has crashed through support and looks to be read to sink lower.  The Hang Seng is now at support and looks ready to break through on the down side.



    Non-Chinese indexes look pretty healthy at the moment.

    We are modifying one of our trading systems, M2F ASP (Alt Sum Plus) LT #2.  The modification is the sell signal.  Currently we sell when our trading indicator (M2F ALT SUM) reads -1 for two days in a row.  This can be very productive for shot-term trading.  One of the problems we have with it is that it often gives a buy signal a day or two after terminating a trade.  Our goal is to turn this into an intermediate-term trading system -- and we do this by selling only when our trading indicator goes negative (-1) AND our intermediate trend indicator (T11) turns negative.  We still use the old system's buy signals, and add to a position as long as the trend holds out.  In Estee Lauder (below), we would buy every buy signal in the chart, but we would not sell, as the trend has not reversed.  The same with Apple Computer below.  But GGB (Gerdau) does gie a 'sell signal', when the trend and the indicator broke down in late October.  But it was right back up giving another series of buy signals.  Our hope is that this modification will help us to generate longer-term profits with this trading system.  Our two short-term systems (M2F ALT and M5 10) do fine generating short-term trading profits.



    DAILY PORTFOLIO


    Our daily portfolio is up 12%, with the first trade being on 6/29/09 -- so this is roughly a 25% annualized rate.  Note: we are also including the number of short trades in each portfolio and the percentage of long trades to show how overwhelming the bullish trend is at the moment.  These percentages should begin to change as time goes on. 



      DAILY PORTFOLIO   Active Active First Short % Long
    % Gain 12/22/09   Profit Trades Cost Trade Trades Trades
    13.66% M2F alt Trading System   $144,760 106 1060000 7/27/09 23 78%
    11.10% M2F ALT LT 2 Tr Syst   $114,371 103 1030000 7/8/09 12 88%
    17.99% M5 10 Trading System   $116,904 65 650000 6/29/09 11 83%
    12.77% M5 D Simple   $56,203 44 440000 6/29/09 5 89%
    12.60% M5/M5Avg Sum Plus New   $27,727 22 220000 9/5/09 2 91%
                     
    13.53% Total   $459,966 340 $3,400,000      
      *Based on $10,000 per trade          


    DAILY TRADING SIGNALS

    We closed some positions today (11 winners, 1 loser) and added more long positions.  We show some charts below.


    22-Dec          
    TUESDAY          
    M2F Alt Trading System      
    New Trades        
    M2F ALT Trade Closed Trades      
    Issue Close @ Position Open @ Date % Gain
    AAPL 200.36 Exit Long $205.88 11/23/09 -2.68%
    NILE 62.4 Exit Long $60.23 11/2/09 3.60%
    IYR 46.65 Exit Long $44.83 12/11/09 4.06%
    VNQ 45.31 Exit Long $43.55 12/11/09 4.04%
    EQR 34.19 Exit Long $31.51 1/13/04 8.51%
    BEAV 23.7 Exit Long $22.56 12/14/09 5.05%
    EMC 17.49 Exit Long $17.49 11/23/09 0.00%
    FITB 10.2 Exit Long $9.82 12/18/09 3.87%
    ELY 7.73 Exit Long $7.30 12/18/09 5.89%
    M2F alt Trading System New Open Trades    
    Issue Price Position Shares    
    SKSRX 3.6 Enter Long 2777.78    
    FNM 1.08 Enter Long 9259.26    
    GSK 42.31 Enter Long 236.35    
    PCL 36.77 Enter Long 271.96    
    UTX 69.35 Enter Long 144.20    
    COL 56.15 Enter Long 178.09    
    EWS 11.31 Enter Long 884.17    
    JO 40.5 Enter Long 246.91    
               
    M2F ALT Lterm 2 Trade Closed Trades    
    Issue Close @ Position Open @ Date % Gain
    None          
    M2F alt Lterm 2 Trading System New Open Trades    
    Issue Price Position Shares    
    STJ 36.9 Enter Long 271.00    
    VALE 28.03 Enter Long 356.76    
    SLAFX 51.57 Enter Long 193.91    
    BVSP 67417.93 Enter Long 0.15    
    HON 39.6 Enter Long 252.53    
    KO 57.27 Enter Long 174.61    
    EL 48.07 Enter Long 208.03    
    TMX 16.98 Enter Long 588.93    
    EPI 21.34 Enter Long 468.60    
    JNJ 64.53 Enter Long 154.97    
    GGB 16.55 Enter Long 604.23    
    BBD 20.74 Enter Long 482.16    
    FNM 1.08 Enter Long 9259.26    
    EWV 48.75 Enter Short -205.13    
               
    M5 (10) Trade Closed Trades      
    Issue Close @ Position Open @ Date % Gain
    IO 6.13 Exit Long $5.87 12/14/09 4.43%
    M5 (10) Trading System New Open Trades    
    Issue Price Position Shares    
    IDX 60.86 Enter Long 164.31    
    HMC 33.74 Enter Long 296.38    
               
    M5D Simple Trade Closed Trades      
    Issue Close @ Position Open @ Date % Gain
    XOP 41.33 Exit Long $41.18 10/27/09 0.36%
    RHT 29.87 Exit Long $27.75 10/22/09 7.64%
    ELY 7.73 Exit Long $7.91 10/22/09 -2.28%
    M5D Simple Trading System New Open Trades    
    Issue Price Position Shares    
    None          
               
    M5/M5 Average Sum Plus New Trade Closed Trades  
    Issue Close @ Position Open @ Date % Gain
    None          
    M5/M5 Average Sum Plus New  Trading System New Open Trades
    Issue Price Position Shares    
    None          

    SELL


    BUY



    More information on this system can be found at

    home.mindspring.com/~mclark7/CGTS09.htm

    A draft of the book Turn Out the Lights can be found at the website below.  This book is a description of the metaphysical causes of the economic cycles of expansion (Day) and contraction (Night).

    www.hoalantrangallery.com/Turnoutlights.htm
     

    Michael J. Clark's Gate Timing System
    Hanoi, Vietnam

    84 4 221 92210





    Disclosure: The author does not own issues mentioned in this article.





    Disclosure: Disclosure: The author does not own issues mentioned in this article.
    Stocks: EL, AAPL, GGB, TMX, KO, EQR, KRE, MTL, NKE, PFE, RHT, COL, FNMA, JO, PCL, UTX
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