WHAT HAPPENS IF DEUTSCHEBANK MELTS DOWN?
Disclosure: I am/we are long UDOW.
I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
So what happens if Deutschebank melts down? That is a good question. Will it be another Lehman Brothers moment?
Banks are in trouble. They have been in trouble for a long time. Negative interest rates don't help the banks. It is possible that the era of big banks vampirizing societies might be ending. The mess of Wells Fargo is an embarrassment. Jamie Dimon seems to go before 'someone' every 6 months, plead guilty, pay millions in fines and then smile a 'let's live to steal again' smile -- which makes him beloved by investors for some reason.
If you're going to steal, steal a lot. Americans respect big-time thieves. The banks have all become big money-laundering operations in order to try to get in on the unimaginative wealth of organized crime. Is this a gross generalization? I'm not sure. I could be wrong.
Will Deutschebank drag down the global economy again? It is possible. We have not really done anything to fix the problems of 2008. Close our eyes and keep going. Hope things fix themselves. Well, 'things' don't usually fix themselves. Germany is under pressure to somehow bail Deutschebank out. Hedge funds are withdrawing liquidity; and DB is collapsing.
We know that we have been on a precipice since 2008. And we've done almost nothing to address the crimes and idiocies that the banks have pursued with astonishing leverage ratios because....the money was just too good to ignore. Yes.
Well, is the flight to quality on? The rush to the US Dollar? No. I ran a bunch of US Dollar charts today. Does NOT look so good; Europe is crashing, and the Dollar is....yawning. Is this a crisis or not? Against the Euro, some kind of consolidation after a big run up. Long-term support at about .87.
The USDRUB is similar to the USDEUR. Strong rally followed by consolidation.
USD-JPY is not pretty. It does not want to go through 100.134.
USD-ZAR is consolidating very aggressively -- if it breaks down through 13.292, then it will tumble even further.
The AUD-USD is attempting to botttom.
The NZD-UDS HAS successfully bottomed.
I guess my point is that for a shortage of US Dollars in the global economy -- and especially in Europe, causing trouble with banks -- there is a remarkable lack of evidence of this in the currency markets.
Our BAROMETER continues to rally from lows. All that good news in the oil markets was supposed to lift us back toward new highs. Then the DB Blues came along.
Trends battled back again. We are expecting higher prices here.
We closed our trade in LABU today, up 24%.
Anyone think the FED will be raising rates in DECEMBER if the banking systems melts down?
Here's our report today:
9/29/16 | Column1 | Column2 | Column3 | Column4 | Column5 | Column6 |
Currency markets are dead. No new trading signals. | ||||||
VIX-4 3X ETF TRADING SYSTEM | ||||||
New Pos | New Pos | |||||
Symbol | Close | Prop | Position | Today | Yesterday | ISSUE |
^VIX | 14.02 | -5 | Short | CRB Volatility Index Daily | ||
ERX | 32.05 | 11 | Long | Enter Long | * Energy Stocks Bullish ETD 3x (NYSE:O) | |
LABU | 46.96 | -1 | Flat | * Biotech Bull 3x | ||
VIX Short but look at PROP1. Not what we want. | ||||||
VIX-5 EMV SPEAR TRADING SYSTEMS | ||||||
New Pos | New Pos | |||||
Symbol | Close | Prop | Position | Today | Yesterday | ISSUE |
BZQ | 20.13 | -23 | Short | Short Brazil Shares ETF | ||
CNYBRL=X | 0.489 | 1 | Short | Chinese Yuan/Brazilian Real | ||
CZR | 7.4 | -5 | Short | Caesar's Entertainment | ||
ERY | 12.91 | -23 | Short | * Energy Stocks Bearish ETF 3x | ||
FXF | 99.09 | 7 | Short | SWISS FRANC ETF | ||
MDRX | 12.91 | 3 | Short | ALLSCRIPTS HEALTH SOLUTIONS | ||
MXWL | 5.09 | -13 | Short | Maxwell Technologies | ||
WDRW | 23.43 | -19 | Short | Enter Short | * Regions Banks Bearish ETF 3x (NO) | |
AXPW | 0.01 | -1 | Flat | Exit Long | AXION | |
DRIP | 21.14 | -23 | Flat | Exit Long | * Oil and Gas Bearish ETF 3x | |
DSLV | 20.86 | 1 | Flat | * Silver Stocks Bearish ETF 3x (NO) | ||
EMES | 12.95 | 5 | Flat | Exit Short | Emerge Energy Services | |
GASX | 27.452 | -23 | Flat | Exit Long | * Natural Gas Stocks Bearish ETF 3x | |
SDRL | 2.49 | -15 | Flat | Exit Short | SeaDrill Ltd. | |
USLV | 21.68 | -7 | Flat | * Silver Stocks Bullish ETF 3x (NO) | ||
3968.HK | 19.84 | -1 | Long | China Merchants' Bank | ||
^BVSP | 58,350.57 | 19 | Long | Sao Paolo Brazilian Index | ||
^TNX | 1.56 | -25 | Long | 10-Year CBOE Interest Rate | ||
BID | 36.78 | -7 | Long | Enter Long | Sotheby's | |
BRZU | 33.83 | 1 | Long | * Brazil Stocks Bullish ETF 3x | ||
CNYINR=X | 10.019 | 3 | Long | Enter Long | Chinese Yuan/Indian Rupee | |
EOG | 95.05 | 5 | Long | EOG Resources | ||
ERX | 32.05 | 11 | Long | Enter Long | * Energy Stocks Bullish ETD 3x | |
EURAUD=X | 1.47 | -25 | Long | Enter Long | Euro/Australian Dollar | |
GDXJ | 44.85 | -1 | Long | Enter Long | Gold Junior Minors ETF Daily | |
GS | 158.95 | -25 | Long | Goldman Sachs Daily | ||
LNG | 43.37 | -1 | Long | Enter Long | Cheniere Energy | |
LOCO | 12.63 | -5 | Long | El Pollo Loco | ||
RUSL | 69.95 | 5 | Long | * Russia Stocks Bullish ETF 3x | ||
SAN | 4.27 | -7 | Long | Banco Santander | ||
SEA | 11.37 | -23 | Long | Global Shipping ETF | ||
SLW | 27.65 | 5 | Long | Silver Wheaton | ||
SPU | 9.43 | 17 | Long | Enter Long | Skypeople Fruitjuice China | |
THLD | 1.18 | -1 | Long | Enter Long | Threshold Pharma | |
UAL | 51.14 | -1 | Long | United Continental Holdings | ||
USDCHF=X | 0.966 | -7 | Long | US Dollar/Swiss Franc | ||
WLL | 8.64 | -15 | Long | Whiting Petroleum | ||
XIN | 6.32 | -5 | Long | Xinyuan Real Estate China | ||
VIX-2 M2F ALT TRADING SYSTEMS | ||||||
New Pos | New Pos | |||||
Symbol | Close | Prop | Position | Today | Yesterday | ISSUE |
CZR | 7.4 | -5 | Short | Caesar's Entertainment | ||
DGAZ | 5.76 | -19 | Flat | * Natural Gas Bearish ETF 3x (NO) | ||
DRYS | 0.445 | -25 | Flat | Dry Ships Daily | ||
DSLV | 20.86 | 1 | Flat | * Silver Stocks Bearish ETF 3x (NO) | ||
FSLR | 39.08 | -15 | Flat | FIRST SOLAR | ||
HGSH | 2.35 | 3 | Flat | HGS Realty China | ||
NFLX | 96.67 | -25 | Flat | Exit Short | Netflix | |
SDRL | 2.49 | -15 | Flat | Exit Short | SeaDrill Ltd. | |
SPU | 9.43 | 17 | Flat | Exit Short | Skypeople Fruitjuice China | |
UGAZ | 38.86 | -5 | Flat | * Natural Gas Bullish ETF 3x (NO) | ||
WKHS | 7.37 | -7 | Flat | Workhorse Group | ||
AXAS | 1.67 | 5 | Long | Abraxis Petro | ||
RUSL | 69.95 | 5 | Long | * Russia Stocks Bullish ETF 3x | ||
THLD | 1.18 | -1 | Long | Threshold Pharma | ||
VIX-SS TRADING SYSTEM | ||||||
New Pos | New Pos | |||||
Symbol | Close | Prop | Position | Today | Yesterday | ISSUE |
DRIP | 21.14 | -23 | Short | Enter Short | * Oil and Gas Bearish ETF 3x | |
SHAK | 34.97 | -19 | Short | Enter Short | Shake Shack | |
1398.HK | 4.99 | -13 | Flat | Industrial and Commercial Bank of China | ||
AXON | 14.3 | -7 | Flat | Exit Long | Axovant | |
CYTX | 2.01 | -25 | Flat | Cytori Therapeutics | ||
CZR | 7.4 | -5 | Flat | Exit Long | Caesar's Entertainment | |
EEV | 15.25 | -23 | Flat | Exit Short | Short MSCI Emerging Markets ETF Daily | |
HSIC | 161.15 | -5 | Flat | Exit Long | Henry Schein | |
MUX | 3.79 | 3 | Flat | McEwan Mining | ||
SYNA | 55.055 | -23 | Flat | Synaptics Inc | ||
UGAZ | 38.86 | -5 | Flat | Exit Long | * Natural Gas Bullish ETF 3x (NO) | |
YANG | 14.43 | -19 | Flat | * China Stock Bearish ETF 3x | ||
GUSH | 85.02 | 11 | Long | Enter Long | * Oil and Gas Bullish ETF 3x | |
HL | 5.75 | -1 | Long | Hecla Mining | ||
LNG | 43.37 | -1 | Long | Cheniere Energy | ||
SPU | 9.43 | 17 | Long | Enter Long | Skypeople Fruitjuice China | |
TOO | 6.08 | 3 | Long | Teekay Offsore Partners |
MJC, CGTS