Entering text into the input field will update the search result below

DEUTSCHEBANK: BEGINNING OF THE END?

Sep. 30, 2016 3:09 AM ETDB4 Comments
Michael Clark profile picture
Michael Clark's Blog
1.36K Followers
Please Note: Blog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors.

WHAT HAPPENS IF DEUTSCHEBANK MELTS DOWN?

Sep 30 3:05 AM•DBComment!

Disclosure: I am/we are long UDOW.

I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

So what happens if Deutschebank melts down? That is a good question. Will it be another Lehman Brothers moment?

Banks are in trouble. They have been in trouble for a long time. Negative interest rates don't help the banks. It is possible that the era of big banks vampirizing societies might be ending. The mess of Wells Fargo is an embarrassment. Jamie Dimon seems to go before 'someone' every 6 months, plead guilty, pay millions in fines and then smile a 'let's live to steal again' smile -- which makes him beloved by investors for some reason.

If you're going to steal, steal a lot. Americans respect big-time thieves. The banks have all become big money-laundering operations in order to try to get in on the unimaginative wealth of organized crime. Is this a gross generalization? I'm not sure. I could be wrong.

Will Deutschebank drag down the global economy again? It is possible. We have not really done anything to fix the problems of 2008. Close our eyes and keep going. Hope things fix themselves. Well, 'things' don't usually fix themselves. Germany is under pressure to somehow bail Deutschebank out. Hedge funds are withdrawing liquidity; and DB is collapsing.

We know that we have been on a precipice since 2008. And we've done almost nothing to address the crimes and idiocies that the banks have pursued with astonishing leverage ratios because....the money was just too good to ignore. Yes.

Well, is the flight to quality on? The rush to the US Dollar? No. I ran a bunch of US Dollar charts today. Does NOT look so good; Europe is crashing, and the Dollar is....yawning. Is this a crisis or not? Against the Euro, some kind of consolidation after a big run up. Long-term support at about .87.

The USDRUB is similar to the USDEUR. Strong rally followed by consolidation.

USD-JPY is not pretty. It does not want to go through 100.134.

USD-ZAR is consolidating very aggressively -- if it breaks down through 13.292, then it will tumble even further.

The AUD-USD is attempting to botttom.

The NZD-UDS HAS successfully bottomed.

I guess my point is that for a shortage of US Dollars in the global economy -- and especially in Europe, causing trouble with banks -- there is a remarkable lack of evidence of this in the currency markets.

Our BAROMETER continues to rally from lows. All that good news in the oil markets was supposed to lift us back toward new highs. Then the DB Blues came along.

Trends battled back again. We are expecting higher prices here.

We closed our trade in LABU today, up 24%.

Anyone think the FED will be raising rates in DECEMBER if the banking systems melts down?

Here's our report today:

9/29/16 Column1 Column2 Column3 Column4 Column5 Column6
Currency markets are dead. No new trading signals.
VIX-4 3X ETF TRADING SYSTEM
New Pos New Pos
Symbol Close Prop Position Today Yesterday ISSUE
^VIX 14.02 -5 Short CRB Volatility Index Daily
ERX 32.05 11 Long Enter Long * Energy Stocks Bullish ETD 3x (NYSE:O)
LABU 46.96 -1 Flat * Biotech Bull 3x
VIX Short but look at PROP1. Not what we want.
VIX-5 EMV SPEAR TRADING SYSTEMS
New Pos New Pos
Symbol Close Prop Position Today Yesterday ISSUE
BZQ 20.13 -23 Short Short Brazil Shares ETF
CNYBRL=X 0.489 1 Short Chinese Yuan/Brazilian Real
CZR 7.4 -5 Short Caesar's Entertainment
ERY 12.91 -23 Short * Energy Stocks Bearish ETF 3x
FXF 99.09 7 Short SWISS FRANC ETF
MDRX 12.91 3 Short ALLSCRIPTS HEALTH SOLUTIONS
MXWL 5.09 -13 Short Maxwell Technologies
WDRW 23.43 -19 Short Enter Short * Regions Banks Bearish ETF 3x (NO)
AXPW 0.01 -1 Flat Exit Long AXION
DRIP 21.14 -23 Flat Exit Long * Oil and Gas Bearish ETF 3x
DSLV 20.86 1 Flat * Silver Stocks Bearish ETF 3x (NO)
EMES 12.95 5 Flat Exit Short Emerge Energy Services
GASX 27.452 -23 Flat Exit Long * Natural Gas Stocks Bearish ETF 3x
SDRL 2.49 -15 Flat Exit Short SeaDrill Ltd.
USLV 21.68 -7 Flat * Silver Stocks Bullish ETF 3x (NO)
3968.HK 19.84 -1 Long China Merchants' Bank
^BVSP 58,350.57 19 Long Sao Paolo Brazilian Index
^TNX 1.56 -25 Long 10-Year CBOE Interest Rate
BID 36.78 -7 Long Enter Long Sotheby's
BRZU 33.83 1 Long * Brazil Stocks Bullish ETF 3x
CNYINR=X 10.019 3 Long Enter Long Chinese Yuan/Indian Rupee
EOG 95.05 5 Long EOG Resources
ERX 32.05 11 Long Enter Long * Energy Stocks Bullish ETD 3x
EURAUD=X 1.47 -25 Long Enter Long Euro/Australian Dollar
GDXJ 44.85 -1 Long Enter Long Gold Junior Minors ETF Daily
GS 158.95 -25 Long Goldman Sachs Daily
LNG 43.37 -1 Long Enter Long Cheniere Energy
LOCO 12.63 -5 Long El Pollo Loco
RUSL 69.95 5 Long * Russia Stocks Bullish ETF 3x
SAN 4.27 -7 Long Banco Santander
SEA 11.37 -23 Long Global Shipping ETF
SLW 27.65 5 Long Silver Wheaton
SPU 9.43 17 Long Enter Long Skypeople Fruitjuice China
THLD 1.18 -1 Long Enter Long Threshold Pharma
UAL 51.14 -1 Long United Continental Holdings
USDCHF=X 0.966 -7 Long US Dollar/Swiss Franc
WLL 8.64 -15 Long Whiting Petroleum
XIN 6.32 -5 Long Xinyuan Real Estate China
VIX-2 M2F ALT TRADING SYSTEMS
New Pos New Pos
Symbol Close Prop Position Today Yesterday ISSUE
CZR 7.4 -5 Short Caesar's Entertainment
DGAZ 5.76 -19 Flat * Natural Gas Bearish ETF 3x (NO)
DRYS 0.445 -25 Flat Dry Ships Daily
DSLV 20.86 1 Flat * Silver Stocks Bearish ETF 3x (NO)
FSLR 39.08 -15 Flat FIRST SOLAR
HGSH 2.35 3 Flat HGS Realty China
NFLX 96.67 -25 Flat Exit Short Netflix
SDRL 2.49 -15 Flat Exit Short SeaDrill Ltd.
SPU 9.43 17 Flat Exit Short Skypeople Fruitjuice China
UGAZ 38.86 -5 Flat * Natural Gas Bullish ETF 3x (NO)
WKHS 7.37 -7 Flat Workhorse Group
AXAS 1.67 5 Long Abraxis Petro
RUSL 69.95 5 Long * Russia Stocks Bullish ETF 3x
THLD 1.18 -1 Long Threshold Pharma
VIX-SS TRADING SYSTEM
New Pos New Pos
Symbol Close Prop Position Today Yesterday ISSUE
DRIP 21.14 -23 Short Enter Short * Oil and Gas Bearish ETF 3x
SHAK 34.97 -19 Short Enter Short Shake Shack
1398.HK 4.99 -13 Flat Industrial and Commercial Bank of China
AXON 14.3 -7 Flat Exit Long Axovant
CYTX 2.01 -25 Flat Cytori Therapeutics
CZR 7.4 -5 Flat Exit Long Caesar's Entertainment
EEV 15.25 -23 Flat Exit Short Short MSCI Emerging Markets ETF Daily
HSIC 161.15 -5 Flat Exit Long Henry Schein
MUX 3.79 3 Flat McEwan Mining
SYNA 55.055 -23 Flat Synaptics Inc
UGAZ 38.86 -5 Flat Exit Long * Natural Gas Bullish ETF 3x (NO)
YANG 14.43 -19 Flat * China Stock Bearish ETF 3x
GUSH 85.02 11 Long Enter Long * Oil and Gas Bullish ETF 3x
HL 5.75 -1 Long Hecla Mining
LNG 43.37 -1 Long Cheniere Energy
SPU 9.43 17 Long Enter Long Skypeople Fruitjuice China
TOO 6.08 3 Long Teekay Offsore Partners

MJC, CGTS

Analyst's Disclosure: I am/we are long UDOW.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

Recommended For You

To ensure this doesn’t happen in the future, please enable Javascript and cookies in your browser.
Is this happening to you frequently? Please report it on our feedback forum.
If you have an ad-blocker enabled you may be blocked from proceeding. Please disable your ad-blocker and refresh.