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CGTS: SHORT TESLA? 3 comments
SHORTING TSLA? REALLY? WHY ON EARTH WOULD YOU DO THAT?
Technical reasons. TSLA has had a very nice rally. But technicals have begun to deteriorate. The short term trend support (see bottom pane) has been broken. This is a serious negative.
Also, my T11 Sunmarry (which is a longer-trend indicator) has turned down (see middle pane below). A rising T11 Sunmarry is positive (as is a flat T11 Sunmarry indicator at a +10 reading). Once the T11 Sunmarry starts to fall the rally is either over or is stalling.
Our trading system, one based on the T11 Sunmarry Indicator, is giving a short-sell signal.
Nothing personal against TSLA or TSLA shareholders.
The overall rally is getting ragged. European indexes and Chinese indexes are getting VERY ragged. And Ben Bernanke now has adversaries in the Fed who are going to start to scream if he tries to continue giving other people's money away to save the very rich -- i.e., the banks and insurance companies on Wall Street.
(click to enlarge)
More information on the CGTS systems can be found at:
home.mindspring.com/~mclark7/CGTS09.htm
MICHAEL J CLARK
Clark's Gate Timing System
Hanoi, Vietnam
cgts@mindspring.com
CGTS
Disclosure: I am short TSLA.
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This post has 3 comments:
What about the environmental trends? Back out and asses the big picture. The rally has stalled several times. Timing for prolonged downturn is premature given the timeline of the business plan and milestones being met.
In terms of assessing the big picture, if we assess the biggest picture, this does not look so good, with central banks everywhere taking on more debt to protect the bad debt that we are afraid to recognize.
As far as Tesla, I think we'll be able to trade this one up and down for quite some time, which is what interests me.
If you've read my writing you know that the Macro picutre, in my mind, is negative at least through 2019, so I will assess TSLA in 2019 to see if it is ready to participate in a long Bull Market move, 2019-2037. I think it probably will be, along with almost all other companies that have survived the Night-Cycle of destruction.
I agree with your long term assessment, and plan.
Sorry for not being more detailed. I was referring to the short term environment.
You touched on it. While we evaluate Tesla on its merits, and Tesla’s own timeline, we also need to factor in the underlying swings in the broader environment, shorter term. Sometimes they coincide with Tesla’s own swings, sometimes they oppose, and sometimes they are neutral. I see this as adding a layer of complexity, and unpredictability to Tesla’s own relevant fluctuations.
I believe that strings get pulled and the market responds. It seems to me that there is a cadence to the ebbs and flows of the market. The trick is to be in phase with it. Easier said, than done.
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