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Michael Clark
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Michael J. Clark was born and raised in Sinclair, Wyoming. He is a poet, novelist, artist, historian, and market analyst. His fine arts portfolio can be found at the following address: http://www.hoalantrangallery.com/MJC2.htm His writing portfolio can be found at:... More
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Clark's Gate Timing System ©
  • SLIGHT UPTICK IN MARKET INTERNALS. SHORTSELL SIGNALS FLOODING IN 2 comments
    Jul 19, 2012 5:05 AM

    IF THIS IS A RALLY...

    If this is a rally, why are we getting so many shortsell signals? Yesterday was a positive day for stocks, for the most part. Still, shortsell signals are pouring in. Below is a list of today's signals for one of our better trading systems. Note: this is only one of our trading systems. We had other shortsell signals also.

    APOL30.63Enter ShortApollo Group
    BBVA6.08Enter ShortBanco Bilbao Argent SA
    CNTF1.04Enter ShortChina Tech-Faith Wireless
    DSX6.91Enter ShortDiana Shipping
    ESI56.63Enter ShortIntl Educational Svc
    GNW5.12Enter ShortGenworth Financial
    HL4.32Enter ShortHecla Mining
    IES.DE0.99Enter ShortIntesa San Paolo SA
    IRE5.28Enter ShortBank of Ireland
    ITMN11.92Enter ShortIntermune Inc
    JDSU9.29Enter ShortJDS Uniphase
    KWT35.98Enter ShortSolar ETF
    MTL5.89Enter ShortMechel Open Joint Stock Company
    MXWL6.67Enter ShortMaxwell Technologies
    NOG15.74Enter ShortNorthern Oil and Gas
    SAN5.56Enter ShortBanco Santander
    VCI20.32Enter ShortValassis Communications
    VVUS29Enter ShortVIVUS Inc
    WPRT35.73Enter ShortWestport Innovations
        
    BZQ79.68Enter LongShort Brazil Shares ETF
    EEV29.29Enter LongShort MSCI Emerging Markets ETF Daily
    FXP28.56Enter LongShort FTSEChina Index ETF Daily

    Not only are we getting shortsell signals; we are also getting buy signals on inverse ETFs: Brazil, Emerging Markets, and China are all essentially giving shortsell signals too.

    What gives? With so many bulls on internet chat services, on CNBC, in American news services claiming that everything is fine with stocks...why so much negativity showing up in my systems?

    Of course we understand the technical sequence. Stocks rally up into overbought territory, but don't rally hard enough to change the underlying trends, which remain negative. In this overbought territory, stocks run in to a lot of gravity from stock-holders wanting to get out, which pushes the stocks back down.

    We also need to look at the US Dollar, which is also activity as a gravity-factor for stocks and commodities. The Dollar has been correcting for the last few days. But that 'correction' is nearing an end. Look at the black line in the top pane of the UUP chart -- the Dollar is now oversold, short-term. Long-term and intermediate-term the Dollar is bullish. This is a negative for stocks and commodities.

    (click to enlarge)

    So where are all these shortsell signals? Certainly 'for profit' private education scam-companies are in trouble: add APOL and ESI to that list. Gold is going lower. We have banks and financial companies on the list above, IRE, SAN, GNW, BBVA. Ireland has a huge debt load still, after all their squirming and cost-cutting. Ireland's problems are not over.

    Well, let's look at some pictures. Asia looks trouble short-term. And let me remind you that these trades are short-term: anywhere from 3 days to a month and a half. The Nikkei and the Hang Seng Index are both giving short-sell signals.

    (click to enlarge)

    (click to enlarge)

    (click to enlarge)

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    (click to enlarge)

    VVUS is a bit strange, showing up on this list. An attempt to come down; followed by a big jump after good news; but closing near a low. I would wait on this one.

    (click to enlarge)

    We have a couple for those who like to trade long only: Coffee ETF and Netflix.

    (click to enlarge)

    (click to enlarge)

    We did have a slight tick up in all three of our market internals indicators, which might give the bulls a bit of encouragement.

    We also had, in Hanoi, the magical disappearance of CNBC off our cable package. I took this as a symbol, of course. Whatever its 'cause' it also has symbolic value. Now I find myself with more time on my hands, and I'm spending less time grimacing and telling my wife what fools we have to deal with. I think she appreciates this.

    It is VERY HOT and HUMID in Hanoi, over 100, and very wet. Nightly rains and electrical storms. We had a tree-frog move in to our house about a month ago, downstairs, and he barks most of the night, calling in the rainstorms, and perhaps a wife. We got him a wife, having our Bread Woman deliver her from the countryside a few days ago. We're expecting to see baby frogs running (jumping) around our basement in a short time.

    ChartMeter ASP512   
    DatePLUSZeroMinus% Long
    2-Jul2845117755.47%
    3-Jul2905217056.64%
    5-Jul2924717357.03%
    6-Jul2577717850.20%
    9-Jul2429417647.27%
    10-Jul21411917941.80%
    11-Jul20612817840.23%
    12-Jul18714118436.52%
    13-Jul2369817846.09%
    16-Jul21411118741.80%
    17-Jul21911018342.77%
    18-Jul2537718249.41%
         
    T11 SUNMARRY512   
    DatePLUSMovingMinus% Long
    2-Jul2554121649.80%
    3-Jul2563921750.00%
    5-Jul2784419054.30%
    6-Jul2824418655.08%
    7-Jul2834218755.27%
    10-Jul2803919354.69%
    11-Jul2743919953.52%
    12-Jul2654120651.76%
    13-Jul2574421150.20%
    16-Jul2574121450.20%
    17-Jul2514122049.02%
    18-Jul2532823149.41%
         
         
    M4 SUM512   
    DatePLUSMovingMinus% Long
    10-Jul335017765.43%
    11-Jul324018863.28%
    12-Jul299021358.40%
    13-Jul301021158.79%
    16-Jul290022256.64%
    17-Jul283022955.27%
    18-Jul284022855.47%

    Michael J. Clark, Hanoi, Vietnam

    Michael Clark and Charon, ferryman through the Underworld (Night-Cycle)

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Comments (2)
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  • FortSumter
    , contributor
    Comments (44) | Send Message
     
    Your description of Hanoi sounds a lot like central Florida. No one ever believes the incredible volume of a tree frog can come from something so small.

     

    Thanks for you insight. Would like to hear your opinion of investing in Vietnam. Working in the mfg industry, I am seeing much interest in moving from China to Vietnam as the next low cost supplier. May be a little early but as I say, the interest is strong.
    19 Jul 2012, 07:05 AM Reply Like
  • Michael Clark
    , contributor
    Comments (8357) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Fortsumter: The volume of these frogs is amazing. What is your business in China?

     

    Generally speaking, I have a love/hate relationship with the northern Vietnamese. They are sweet and charming and a bit gothic; but they are very tricky, they almost never tell the truth, and they see moral straightness as a sign of stupidity, and shrewdness (the ability to trick people out of money) as a prime virtue.

     

    This sounds harsh. If you want to do business in Vietnam, go to Saigon. Saigon is more open and honest and more understanding of what business is and needs to be. I love Hanoi; but all of our Vietnamese 'friends' in Hanoi are friends only if they think they are going to make money off the friendship.

     

    Saigon frustrated American soldiers in the War also because of all the lying and face-saving. If you want to do business in Vietnam, you have to always be watching what's going on. Don't be too trusting.

     

    I don't want that to sound too negative. My wife (who was born in Vietnam) really misses the American 'integrity' she came to love -- if someone says they will do something, they do it. I, in fact, love Asia because it is different, not what I am used to. I am also very fond of Thailand, especially Bangkok.

     

    Thanks for your note.
    Michael
    19 Jul 2012, 07:51 AM Reply Like
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