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Michael Clark
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Michael J. Clark was born and raised in Sinclair, Wyoming. He is a poet, novelist, artist, historian, and market analyst. His fine arts portfolio can be found at the following address: http://www.hoalantrangallery.com/MJC2.htm His writing portfolio can be found at:... More
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Clark's Gate Timing System ©
  • SLIGHT UPTICK IN MARKET INTERNALS. SHORTSELL SIGNALS FLOODING IN 2 comments
    Jul 19, 2012 5:05 AM

    IF THIS IS A RALLY...

    If this is a rally, why are we getting so many shortsell signals? Yesterday was a positive day for stocks, for the most part. Still, shortsell signals are pouring in. Below is a list of today's signals for one of our better trading systems. Note: this is only one of our trading systems. We had other shortsell signals also.

    APOL 30.63 Enter Short Apollo Group
    BBVA 6.08 Enter Short Banco Bilbao Argent SA
    CNTF 1.04 Enter Short China Tech-Faith Wireless
    DSX 6.91 Enter Short Diana Shipping
    ESI 56.63 Enter Short Intl Educational Svc
    GNW 5.12 Enter Short Genworth Financial
    HL 4.32 Enter Short Hecla Mining
    IES.DE 0.99 Enter Short Intesa San Paolo SA
    IRE 5.28 Enter Short Bank of Ireland
    ITMN 11.92 Enter Short Intermune Inc
    JDSU 9.29 Enter Short JDS Uniphase
    KWT 35.98 Enter Short Solar ETF
    MTL 5.89 Enter Short Mechel Open Joint Stock Company
    MXWL 6.67 Enter Short Maxwell Technologies
    NOG 15.74 Enter Short Northern Oil and Gas
    SAN 5.56 Enter Short Banco Santander
    VCI 20.32 Enter Short Valassis Communications
    VVUS 29 Enter Short VIVUS Inc
    WPRT 35.73 Enter Short Westport Innovations
           
    BZQ 79.68 Enter Long Short Brazil Shares ETF
    EEV 29.29 Enter Long Short MSCI Emerging Markets ETF Daily
    FXP 28.56 Enter Long Short FTSEChina Index ETF Daily

    Not only are we getting shortsell signals; we are also getting buy signals on inverse ETFs: Brazil, Emerging Markets, and China are all essentially giving shortsell signals too.

    What gives? With so many bulls on internet chat services, on CNBC, in American news services claiming that everything is fine with stocks...why so much negativity showing up in my systems?

    Of course we understand the technical sequence. Stocks rally up into overbought territory, but don't rally hard enough to change the underlying trends, which remain negative. In this overbought territory, stocks run in to a lot of gravity from stock-holders wanting to get out, which pushes the stocks back down.

    We also need to look at the US Dollar, which is also activity as a gravity-factor for stocks and commodities. The Dollar has been correcting for the last few days. But that 'correction' is nearing an end. Look at the black line in the top pane of the UUP chart -- the Dollar is now oversold, short-term. Long-term and intermediate-term the Dollar is bullish. This is a negative for stocks and commodities.

    (click to enlarge)

    So where are all these shortsell signals? Certainly 'for profit' private education scam-companies are in trouble: add APOL and ESI to that list. Gold is going lower. We have banks and financial companies on the list above, IRE, SAN, GNW, BBVA. Ireland has a huge debt load still, after all their squirming and cost-cutting. Ireland's problems are not over.

    Well, let's look at some pictures. Asia looks trouble short-term. And let me remind you that these trades are short-term: anywhere from 3 days to a month and a half. The Nikkei and the Hang Seng Index are both giving short-sell signals.

    (click to enlarge)

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    VVUS is a bit strange, showing up on this list. An attempt to come down; followed by a big jump after good news; but closing near a low. I would wait on this one.

    (click to enlarge)

    We have a couple for those who like to trade long only: Coffee ETF and Netflix.

    (click to enlarge)

    (click to enlarge)

    We did have a slight tick up in all three of our market internals indicators, which might give the bulls a bit of encouragement.

    We also had, in Hanoi, the magical disappearance of CNBC off our cable package. I took this as a symbol, of course. Whatever its 'cause' it also has symbolic value. Now I find myself with more time on my hands, and I'm spending less time grimacing and telling my wife what fools we have to deal with. I think she appreciates this.

    It is VERY HOT and HUMID in Hanoi, over 100, and very wet. Nightly rains and electrical storms. We had a tree-frog move in to our house about a month ago, downstairs, and he barks most of the night, calling in the rainstorms, and perhaps a wife. We got him a wife, having our Bread Woman deliver her from the countryside a few days ago. We're expecting to see baby frogs running (jumping) around our basement in a short time.

    ChartMeter ASP 512      
    Date PLUS Zero Minus % Long
    2-Jul 284 51 177 55.47%
    3-Jul 290 52 170 56.64%
    5-Jul 292 47 173 57.03%
    6-Jul 257 77 178 50.20%
    9-Jul 242 94 176 47.27%
    10-Jul 214 119 179 41.80%
    11-Jul 206 128 178 40.23%
    12-Jul 187 141 184 36.52%
    13-Jul 236 98 178 46.09%
    16-Jul 214 111 187 41.80%
    17-Jul 219 110 183 42.77%
    18-Jul 253 77 182 49.41%
             
    T11 SUNMARRY 512      
    Date PLUS Moving Minus % Long
    2-Jul 255 41 216 49.80%
    3-Jul 256 39 217 50.00%
    5-Jul 278 44 190 54.30%
    6-Jul 282 44 186 55.08%
    7-Jul 283 42 187 55.27%
    10-Jul 280 39 193 54.69%
    11-Jul 274 39 199 53.52%
    12-Jul 265 41 206 51.76%
    13-Jul 257 44 211 50.20%
    16-Jul 257 41 214 50.20%
    17-Jul 251 41 220 49.02%
    18-Jul 253 28 231 49.41%
             
             
    M4 SUM 512      
    Date PLUS Moving Minus % Long
    10-Jul 335 0 177 65.43%
    11-Jul 324 0 188 63.28%
    12-Jul 299 0 213 58.40%
    13-Jul 301 0 211 58.79%
    16-Jul 290 0 222 56.64%
    17-Jul 283 0 229 55.27%
    18-Jul 284 0 228 55.47%

    Michael J. Clark, Hanoi, Vietnam

    Michael Clark and Charon, ferryman through the Underworld (Night-Cycle)

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Comments (2)
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  • FortSumter
    , contributor
    Comments (58) | Send Message
     
    Your description of Hanoi sounds a lot like central Florida. No one ever believes the incredible volume of a tree frog can come from something so small.

     

    Thanks for you insight. Would like to hear your opinion of investing in Vietnam. Working in the mfg industry, I am seeing much interest in moving from China to Vietnam as the next low cost supplier. May be a little early but as I say, the interest is strong.
    19 Jul 2012, 07:05 AM Reply Like
  • Michael Clark
    , contributor
    Comments (11578) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Fortsumter: The volume of these frogs is amazing. What is your business in China?

     

    Generally speaking, I have a love/hate relationship with the northern Vietnamese. They are sweet and charming and a bit gothic; but they are very tricky, they almost never tell the truth, and they see moral straightness as a sign of stupidity, and shrewdness (the ability to trick people out of money) as a prime virtue.

     

    This sounds harsh. If you want to do business in Vietnam, go to Saigon. Saigon is more open and honest and more understanding of what business is and needs to be. I love Hanoi; but all of our Vietnamese 'friends' in Hanoi are friends only if they think they are going to make money off the friendship.

     

    Saigon frustrated American soldiers in the War also because of all the lying and face-saving. If you want to do business in Vietnam, you have to always be watching what's going on. Don't be too trusting.

     

    I don't want that to sound too negative. My wife (who was born in Vietnam) really misses the American 'integrity' she came to love -- if someone says they will do something, they do it. I, in fact, love Asia because it is different, not what I am used to. I am also very fond of Thailand, especially Bangkok.

     

    Thanks for your note.
    Michael
    19 Jul 2012, 07:51 AM Reply Like
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