Seeking Alpha

Michael Clark's  Instablog

Michael Clark
Send Message
Michael J. Clark was born and raised in Sinclair, Wyoming. He is a poet, novelist, artist, historian, and market analyst. His fine arts portfolio can be found at the following address: http://www.hoalantrangallery.com/MJC2.htm His writing portfolio can be found at:... More
My company:
Clark's Gate Timing System ©
  • IS THIS RALLY GETTING LEGS? (AND ARE THE LEGS GETTING A BIG HAIRY?) 0 comments
    Jul 31, 2012 9:05 AM

    Today we got a lot of cover short position signals. What we did not get a lot of is actual buy signals. We got a few Buy Signals we like:SNDK, FLIR, YNDX.

    Ordinarily, we would expect to see a lot more buy signals in a real rally. But we are in a transitory market, a market that isn't sure where to go. Last week I published an instablog that, I think, helps to explain why this is so: with the help of Ed Easterling's charts and discussion -- this is the kind of market he, Mr. Easterling, calls a 'Bear in Hibernation Market'. The Bear isn't loose; but neither is the Bull.

    seekingalpha.com/instablog/428250-michae...

    In terms of our internal indicators, our most short-term indicator has already topped out, indicating a good chance of a pull-back from here. (See first momentum chart.) Our longer term indicator has not really participated in the rally yet. But it sometimes takes longer to bottom.

    The indicators above are for a group of 512 stocks and indexes we follow. The SPX itself looks like this, first in terms of our short-term momentum indicators; then in terms of the indicators we use to determine internal strength of the markets.

    (click to enlarge)

    (click to enlarge)

    Nothing much negative in this view of the SPX. It is short-term overbought; that is about all. But look at the NDX (Nasdaq), SOX (Semiconductors) and Shanghai, China.

    NDX, Nasdaq Index

    (click to enlarge)

    SOX, Semiconductor Index

    (click to enlarge)

    SHANGHAI INDEX

    (click to enlarge)

    About 80% of the indexes we follow DO NOT look like the SPX. 80% look like the SOX, the NDX, and SSEC. The SPX is holding up quite remarkably, seeing that the global economy -- and the American economy -- are heading back in to the Underworld at a very fast pace. What is holding the SPX up? That will be something for the historians to figure out.

    Today's momentum readings.

    Momentum Entire Portfolio   
    DateSPXCM ASPT11D SumM4 21 Sm
    7/2/121365.5120.90%7.62% 
    7/3/121374.0223.44%7.62% 
    7/5/121367.5823.24%17.19% 
    7/6/121354.6815.43%18.75% 
    7/9/121352.4612.89%18.75% 
    7/10/121341.476.84%16.99%30.86%
    7/11/121341.455.47%14.65%26.56%
    7/12/121341.760.59%11.52%16.80%
    7/13/121356.7811.33%8.98%17.58%
    7/16/121353.645.27%8.40%13.28%
    7/17/121363.677.03%6.05%10.55%
    7/18/121372.7813.87%4.30%10.94%
    7/19/121376.5114.06%3.32%12.50%
    7/20/121362.666.25%1.17%7.42%
    7/23/121350.52-5.66%-1.37%-2.35%
    7/24/121338.31-14.06%-1.37%-2.35%
    7/25/121337.89-10.55%-8.59%-16.02%
    7/26/121360.021.37%-8.66%43.55%
    7/27/121385.9711.72%-8.40%47.46%
    7/30/121385.38.98%-2.54%48.24%
         
    DateSPXM2F ALTMom Max
    25-Jul1337.89026.819 
    26-Jul1360.0226.00535.05 
    27-Jul1385.9773.92158.241 
    30-Jul1385.399.43472.463 
         
     M2F Alt: overbought>90 and oversold<10  
     MOM Max: overbought>80 and oversold<20 

    Today's New Trading Signals:

    The themes of our charts today feels quite scattered:

    •My increasing bearishness on Australia and China shows up in two shortsale signals today: SNP and VALE. China Petro and Chemical Co (NYSE:SNP) has fallen from 125 to 89. It is now give a second rapid-fire shortsell signal. What does VALE, a South American, industrial company have to do with Australia? The whole industrial mining and metals buying that China has been doing to keep Canada and Australia out of recession is faltering. Canada and Australia have huge housing bubbles in progress also; and they are about to pop.

    •Shortsell NDX. That says enough by itself.

    • Sell Lululemon, STJ (medical) and SCCO (copper) aren't really connected thematically except to say look how well this trading system has called tops in these stocks, suggesting more selling coming into the markets.

    • Short Canadian Dollar vs Japanese Yen. Is this more of the Canadian story, or more of the chronic JYen strength story (Yen's role in the global carry-trade).

    •TYX (10-Year TBond Yield) Shortsale: more strength in TBonds, US Dollar, means more weakness in EU and more trouble in Europe? This is a question. Dollar strength means stock weakness? Another question.

    •Three stocks that look like pretty good buys years technically: FLIR, SNDK, YNDX.

     

     

      Trades forTrades for 
      TuesdayMonday 
      31-Jul30-Jul 
         
    TRADING SYSTEM T11D Sunmarry 10/Zero 
    (Intermediate-Term)   
    SYMBOLCLOSETodayYesterdayCompany
         
    CDXS3.11Enter Short Codexis Inc
    COV.L238.75 Enter ShortCove Energy
    CTIC0.511 Enter ShortCell Therapeutics
    EZCH36.57 Enter LongEZChip Semiconductor
    FLIR *20.48Enter Long Flir Systems
    GRPN6.9 Exit ShortGroupon INc
    JBLU5.41Enter Short Jet Blue
    NSM22.3 Enter ShortNationstar Mortgage
    OREX5.13Enter Short Orexigen Pharmaceuticals
    RAVN33.91 Enter ShortRaven Industries
    SNDK *41.17Enter Long SanDisk Corp
    TSLA *27.35Enter Short Tesla Motors Daily
    YNDX *20.83Enter Long Yandex NV
         
    * See chart    
         
    TRADING SYSTEM M2F ALT  
    (Short-Term)   
    SYMBOLCLOSETodayYesterdayCompany
         
    ^DJT5,112.37Exit Long Dow Jones Transport Index
    ^FTSE5,693.63Enter Short FTSE Daily Index
    ^NDX *2,642.12Enter Short Nasdaq Index Daily
    ^RUT791.58Exit Long Russell SMall Cap Index Daily
    ^SMSI686.64 Enter ShortMadrid General Index Daily
    ^TNX *1.504 Enter Short10-Year CBOE Interest Rate
    ^TYX2.579Enter Short 30 YEAR TREASURY YIELD
    ^XCI1,100.30Enter Short Amex Computer Index Daily
    ACN60.38 Enter ShortAccenture PLC
    ADBE31.01 Enter ShortAdobe Daily
    AIG31.72Exit Long American Intl Group Daily
    BK21.45 Exit LongBank of NY Mellon
    BZF18.65 Enter ShortBrazilian Real long currency
    CADJPY=X78.178Enter Short Canadian Dollar/Japanese Yen
    CBI34.94 Exit LongChicago Bridge and iron
    CSC24.29 Enter ShortComputer Sciences
    CTSH57.31 Enter ShortCognizant Tech Solutions
    DRYS2.32 Enter ShortDry Ships Daily
    DSX6.75 Enter ShortDiana Shipping
    EEV28.3 Enter LongShort MSCI Emerging Markets ETF Daily
    EFZ48.13 Enter LongShort MSCI EAPE Index ETF Daily
    EIRL20.28 Enter ShortIreland ETF
    EL53.83 Enter ShortEstee Lauder
    EPI16.75Exit Long India ETF
    EUFN15.24 Enter ShortEuorpean Financial Index
    EUM30.72 Enter LongShort Emerging Markets
    EURARS=X5.62Exit Long Euro/Argentine Peso
    EURBRL=X2.502Exit Long Euro/Brazilian Real
    EURINR=X68.251Exit Long Euro/Indian Rupee
    EWC26.6 Enter ShortCanada ETF
    EWG20.2 Enter ShortGermany ETF
    EWQ19.65 Enter ShortFrance ETF
    FDS93.05Enter Short Factset Research
    FISV72.25Exit Long Fiserve Inc
    FTS.TO33.4Exit Long Fortis
    FXB155.59Exit Long British Pound ETF
    FXI34.06 Enter ShortFTSE/XINHUA China 25 Index ETF
    GBPCNY=X10.036Enter Short British Pound/Chinese Yuan
    HAP34.246 Enter ShortHard Asset Producers ETF
    ICN20.25 Enter ShortIndian Ruppee ETF
    INTC25.76 Enter ShortIntel Daily
    IYJ68.43 Enter ShortDow Jones Industrial ETF
    JCI24.71Enter Short Johnson Controls
    JOSB42.65Enter Short JOS A. Bank Clothiers
    KOL23.35Enter Short Coal ETF
    LD47.27Enter Short Lead ETF
    LLL *70.35Exit Long L3 Communications
    MAKO13.37 Enter ShortMako Surgical Corp
    MWA3.54Exit Long Mueller Water Products
    MYY27.79 Enter LongShort Midcap Index Short
    NANO15.06 Enter ShortNanometrics Inc
    NKE95.85 Enter ShortNike Daily
    NZDJPY=X63.423Enter Short New Zealand Dollar/Japanese Yen
    PDLI6.85 Exit LongProtein Design Labs
    PG65.1Enter Short Proctor and Gamble Daily
    PPA19.06 Enter ShortAerospace and Defense ETF
    PSQ26.25Enter Long Short QQQ Index ETF
    QQQ64.82Enter Short Powershares QQQ
    RHT53.76 Enter ShortRed Hat
    SCCO *32.09Exit Long Southern Copper
    SCHN28.43Enter Short Schnitzer Steel Indust
    SDD31.22 Enter LongShort Small Cap Index ETF Daily
    SHLD49.96Enter Short Sears Holdings
    SLG79.18Exit Long SL Green Realty
    SLX42.78Enter Short Steel ETF
    SMN16.97Enter Long Short Basic Materials
    SNP *89.76Enter Short China Petrol & Chemical Co
    SRS25.23Exit Short Short Real Estate ETF Daily
    STJ *37.54Exit Long St. Jude Medical
    SYK52.34 Exit LongStryker Corp
    TD78.83Enter Short Toronto Dominion Bank
    THC4.65Enter Short Tenet Healthcare
    THD68.97 Enter ShortThailand ETF
    THLD7.21 Enter ShortThreshold Pharma
    TNA52.4Enter Short Direxion Daily Small Cap Bull
    TTI7.12Enter Short Tetra Technologies
    TTM20.23Enter Short Tata Motors
    TWM30.63Enter Long Short Russell 2000 Index ETF Daily
    TZA18.18Enter Long Direxion Daily Small Cap Bear
    USDTHB=X31.555Exit Short USDollar-Thai Baht
    UUP22.77 Exit ShortUS DOLLAR INDEX BULLISH ETF
    VALE *18.27Enter Short VALE S.A.
    XME39.8Enter Short Spider Mining Metals ETF
    XRT59.49Exit Long Retailers ETF
         
         
    * See chart    
         
    TRADING SYSTEM ChartMeter  
    (Intermediate-Term)   
    SYMBOLCLOSETodayYesterdayCompany
         
    ^HUI417.488Exit Short Gold Stock Index Daily
    ^SMSI686.64 Exit ShortMadrid General Index Daily
    ^XAU153.82 Exit ShortPhiladelphia Gold and Silver Index Daily
    BBVA6.56 Exit ShortBanco Bilbao Argent SA
    CLWR1.16 Exit ShortClearwire
    COW28.754 Exit ShortLivestock ETF
    CYTX2.64Enter Long Cytori Therapeutics
    EWP23.11 Exit ShortSpain Index
    FRO3.81Exit Short Frontline Limited Shipping
    FST7.06Exit ShortEnter ShortFOREST OIL
    GRPN6.9Exit Short Groupon INc
    HLCS0.072 Exit LongHelicos Biosciences
    ICN20.25 Exit ShortIndian Ruppee ETF
    IES.DE1.028Exit Short Intesa San Paolo SA
    LD47.27 Exit ShortLead ETF
    MT16.13Exit Short Arcelor-Mittal Steel
    MTL6.12 Exit ShortMechel Open Joint Stock Company
    QRM1.27 Exit ShortQuest Rare Metals
    RBS6.96 Exit ShortRoyal Bank of Scotland Daily
    SAN6.08 Exit ShortBanco Santander
    SNP89.76 Exit ShortChina Petrol & Chemical Co
    TSU22.33Exit Short TIM Part (Tele Cellular)
    URS34.78 Exit ShortURS Corp
    YOKU16.9Exit Short YouKu China
         
    * See chart    

    (click to enlarge)

    (click to enlarge)

    (click to enlarge)

    (click to enlarge)

    (click to enlarge)

    (click to enlarge)

    (click to enlarge)

    (click to enlarge)

    (click to enlarge)

    (click to enlarge)

    (click to enlarge)(click to enlarge)

    Michael J. Clark, Hanoi, Vietnam

Back To Michael Clark's Instablog HomePage »

Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

Comments (0)
Track new comments
Be the first to comment
Full index of posts »
Latest Followers

StockTalks

More »

Latest Comments


Posts by Themes
Instablogs are Seeking Alpha's free blogging platform customized for finance, with instant set up and exposure to millions of readers interested in the financial markets. Publish your own instablog in minutes.