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Michael J. Clark was born and raised in Sinclair, Wyoming. He is a poet, novelist, artist, historian, and market analyst. His fine arts portfolio can be found at the following address: http://www.hoalantrangallery.com/MJC2.htm His writing portfolio can be found at:... More
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Clark's Gate Timing System ©
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TURN OUT THE LIGHTS
  • CGTS DAILY TRADING SIGNALS, THURSDAY 23 SEPTEMBER 2010: MARKET TRYING TO TOP. PART ONE. 0 comments
    Sep 23, 2010 11:56 AM | about stocks: FNIO, COL, S, CDNS, CAB, BSX, BRK.A, BIIB, ARE, APOL, AOBI, ANV, AMTD, AMAT, AKAM, AHCHF, HMY, NEM, LXRX, LD, ELD, GG
    CLARK'S GATE TIMING SYSTEM
      FOR: 23 September 2010, Thursday


    PART ONE.

    CGTS VIEW

    Yesterday we asked the question: Can bonds and stocks rally together?  It looks like they can't.  Markets seem to be running out of gas here.  We are getting a lot of sell signals; we are also getting bottom reading in "inverse' ETFs, which appreciate when stocks fall.  VIX is making a strong attempt to bottom also.  I think we probably all should get rid to lock in profits, because we've hit the end of our trading rnge and it's hard to see how stocks are going to propel themselves much further in the short term at least.

    MARKET MOMENTUM

    Momentum is deteriorating.  Our 'new' indicator, which measures how many issues are in a climbing phase versus a declining phase (M3/M5 Average Differential ASP -- See "H" below) is now at 40 -- 40% of the issues we follow are bullish, are climbing.  We said this indicator would be more sensitive than some of the others.  We think that sensitivity is playing out now.  Our charts will show why we are concerned that we are at a market top.


    MARKET MOMENTUM
    THURS
    FRI
    MON
    TUES
    WED
     SUMMARY
    16-Sep
    17-Sep
    20-Sep
    21-Sep
    22-Sep
    GSPC - S&P 500 Index
    1124.66
    1125.59
    1142.71
    1139.78
    1134.28
     
     
     
     
     
     
    A. Trading Mom +
    175
    215
    311
    232
    172
    Trading Mom -
    49
    25
    15
    22
    37
    Bull %
    40%
    49%
    70%
    52%
    39%
    B. Mom Trend +
    294
    394
    397
    392
    380
    Mom Trend -
    68
    47
    45
    49
    61
    Bull %
    67%
    89%
    90%
    89%
    86%
    C. Advance/Decline +
    194
    237
    340
    259
    196
    Advance/Decline -
    168
    205
    102
    183
    246
    Bull %
    44%
    54%
    77%
    59%
    44%
    D. Long Trade
    138
    178
    257
    205
    157
    Short Trade
    36
    15
    8
    10
    14
    Bull %
    35%
    35%
    35%
    35%
    35%
    E. IT Trend +
    253
    342
    345
    363
    367
    IT Trend -
    107
    98
    95
    76
    72
    Bull %
    57%
    77%
    78%
    82%
    83%
    F. M5 3 M5 Avg Dif +
    272
    346
    366
    360
    328
    M5 3 M5 avg Dif -
    89
    95
    75
    81
    113
    Bull %
    62%
    78%
    83%
    81%
    74%
    G. M5 3/M5 Avg Diff Top
     
    17
    28
    30
    22
    M5 3/M5 Avg Diff Bottom
     
    5
    6
    6
    7
    Bull %
     
    77%
    82%
    83%
    76%
    H. M5/M5 Avg Diff TB Asp+
     
     
     
    214
    176
    M5/M5 Avg Diff TB Asp-
     
     
     
    226
    265
    Bull %
     
     
     
    49%
    40%
    Avg of avgs
     
    51%
    64%
    66%
    60%
     
     
     
     
     
     
    A. "Trading Momentum" = M4 ASP +1 vs -1; +1 bullish and -1 bearish.
     
     
     
    B. "Momentum Trend" = M4 ASP (+1 - 0) vs (0 - (-)1); in BUY ZONE or SELL ZONE.
     
    C. "Advance/Decline" = M4 ASP tick up vs tick down = mosr recent move up or down;
     
    D. "Long Trade/Short Trade" = M4 ASP +1/ Int-Trend positive vs M4 ASP -1/Int-Trend negative;
     
    E. "IT TREND" = Int-Trend positive vs negative. Slowest to turn. Most important long-term measure.
    F. "M5 3 vs M5 3 Average Differential" = Above zero bullish; below zero bearish. Perhaps best indicator for intermediate term moves.
    G. 'M5 3 vs M5 3 Average Diffential' = Those registering above +100 (top) vs those registering below -100 (bottom).
    H. "M5/M5 Average Diffential ASP": Advancers vs Decliners in terms of the ASP indicator.
     
     
     


    INDEX PICTURES

    BKX, Banking Index: M5 3 Momentum (Top Pane, brown line) is breaking down through support; M5 3 Average (black line) has caught up with its parent indicator.  A bull move has M5 3 leading and M5 3 Average following.  The Bottom Pane is also ominous.




    DJT, Dow Jones Transports have a similar story.  Momentum is breaking down.  M5/M5 Average (Bottom Pane) is also topping.



    FCHI, Paris CAC Index.  Same story.  M4 Sum Plus (Second Pane, black line) has not broken down to -1.  This will be the final indication that sellers have won this round.



    FTSE, London Index: same story: selling coming.



    GSPC, S&P 500: same story.  Momentum topping.



    MYY, Short Midcap Index: are "Inverse" Indexes turning back up?  We got a short-cover signal on MYY today.



    RWM, Short Russell 200 Index: cover shortsale positon.



    SBB, Short Small Cap 600 S&P ETF: cover shortsale signal.



    SIJ, Short Industrials ETF: is trying to build a bottom.  M5 3 (Top Pane) is bottoming; other momentum indicators in panes three and four are also attempting to build a bottom.



    DBO, the Oil ETF, is mired and falling.  It did not come close to breaking resistance and establishing a new top.  A collapse through support below would be quite bearish.



    The only thing missing from a perfect picture of a stock market decline -- gold strength, TBond strength, Inverse stock index strength -- is US Dollar strength.  We still don't have any strength in the Dollar, as seen in the UUP, Bullish Dollar ETF.  Heading lower; heading in to the bottomless pit -- the Bernanke Pit we might call it.



    CGTS PORTFOLIO


    We haven't shown our CGTS Portfolio for some time.  This shows the 9-10 Trading Systems we are working with, and how they have performed since 6/19/10.  ST = Short-Term Trading Systems (3 such systems).  The other trading systems are more intermediate- and long-term.  We invest $10,000 per trade.  We will update this once a week.

     
    DAILY PORTFOLIO
     
     
    Active
    Active
    % Gain
    9/20/10
     
    Profit
    Trades
    Cost
    8.41%
    M4 SPIKE *
    ST
    $37,843
    45
    450000
    31.86%
    M53 vs Avg Dif
     
    $9,558
    3
    30000
    4.27%
    M2F ALT M4 2
    ST
    $2,134
    5
    50000
    2.70%
    M2F Diff Asp2+
     
    $2,974
    11
    110000
    0.21%
    M5 3 Avg Diff New
    ST
    $64
    3
    30000
    7.16%
    M53Avg Sim New2
     
    $7,155
    10
    100000
    5.18%
    M5 3 Avg +3
     
    $4,144
    8
    80000
    22.14%
    M4 Spike LT
     
    $11,070
    5
    50000
    8.49%
    M4 Spike LT 2
     
    $37,372
    44
    440000
    16.33%
    M5 3 Test LT
     
    $31,026
    19
    190000
    6.15%
    M5 3 ASP LT 2a
     
    $55,333
    90
    900000
    5.65%
    M53 Visual New2
     
    $4,518
    8
    80000
    7.97%
    M5/M5 What2?
     
    $37,467
    47
    470000
    40.21%
    M4 ASP REV TR *
     
    $16,085
    4
    40000
    2.22%
    CURRENCY
     
    $8,197
    37
    370000
     
    *subsumed into Spike
     
     
     
     
    7.53%
    Since 6/19/10
     
    $215,406
    286
    $2,860,000
     

    TODAY'S NEW TRADES

    We have a lot of pictures tonight.  A lot of sell signals.  Here are our new open trades.

     
    9/22/10
     
     
     
     
    WED
    Trading System
    Long/Short
    Price
    Shares
    AMAT
    SPIKE
    Short
    11.16
    -896
    AHCHY.PK
    Spike Plus *
    Long
    21
    476
    HMY
    Spike Plus *
    Long
    11.31
    884
    AHCHY.PK
    M5 vs Avg diff
    Long
    21
    476
    FRG
    M5 vs Avg Dif2*
    Long
    7.14
    1401
    BSX
    M5 vs Avg Dif2*
    Short
    5.62
    -1779
    AMTD
    M2F alt M4 2
    short
    16.05
    -623
    LXRX
    M5 Avg Diff New
    Long
    1.44
    6944
    AMTD
    M5 Avg Diff New
    Short
    1.605
    -6231
    BSX
    M5 Avg Diff New
    Short
    5.62
    -1779
    LD
    M2F Diff ASP 2+
    Long
    56.03
    178
    LODE.OB
    M2F Diff ASP 2+ LT
    Long
    1.97
    5076
    ELD
    Spike LT
    Long
    51.8
    193
    GG
    M5 ASP LT 2a
    Long
    44.34
    226
    AOB
    M5 ASP LT 2a
    Short
    2.3
    -4348
    APB
    Visual
    Short
    2.3
    -4348
     
     
     
     
     
     
    *modifications of their parent systems
     
     
    designed to give us more trades.
     

    AKAM, Akamai.  M5 3 ASP ALT LT2a Trade: Sell.

     
    AMAT, Applied Materials.  M4 Spike Trading System: shortsell.



    AMTD, Ameritrade - M2F ALT M4 2 Trading System: shortsell.



    ANV, Allied Nevada Gold - M5 3 ASP ALT LT2a Trading System: Sell.  Take profits.  It's a bit dangerous to sell gold stocks at the moment; but this is the signal we are getting with this trading system.



    AOB, American Oriental Bioengineering - M5 3 ASP ALT LT2a Trading System: shortsell.



    APOL, Apollo Group - M4 Spike Trade: sell.  The oversold rally was impressive.  But now it's more work to the downside it seems.



    ARE, Alexandria Real Estate Equities - M5 3 Visual Trading System: sell.  Classic consolidation pattern.  I'm not sure why this one is going up at all.  0% interest rates probably have something to do with it.



    BIIB, Biogen-Idec - M5 3 Viausl Trading System: sell.  Not all of our trades work; but we try hard to make sure downside is limited for the ones that don't work.



    BRK-A Shares - Berkshire Hathaway - M5 3 Visual Trading System: sell.



    BSX, Boston Scientific - M5 3 vs Average Diff #2:  Shortsell.  Is support here safe (5.04)?  Probably not.  If this is a Bear Market still, as it appears to be, BSX will make a new low.



    CAB, Cabela's Inc - M5 3 Visual Trading System: sell.  Good chart pattern.  Stock might go higher eventually, especially if support at 14.47 holds -- which it should.



    CDNS, Cadence Design - M4 Spike Trading System: sell.  A lovely run; this isn't the end of the world.  But it seems like a pull-back is coming.  How much of a pullback?  That's the $10,000 question, isn't it.  Cadence has support at 6.54.  Is this only another trading range pullback, or something more?  We don't know.  In a macro sense, stocks should probably crash at least one more time before 2019 -- but when will it come?



    CLWR, Clearwire - M2F ALT M4 2 Trading System: sell.  Good run up; but it's a bear market chart unless this decline stops above the old low made in August: 6.07.  This one could test the old low, unless the market digests all the bad news and presents no real selling.



    COL, Rockwell Collins - M5 3 Visual Trading System: Sell.  The chart pattern here is a very tight trading range.  This stock seems to be rolling over and preparing to re-test support in the 38 area.



    FIO, Industrial/Office REIT ETF - M5 3 Visual Trading System: sell.  I don't understand what is keeping this ETF above water.  It was cut in half in 2008's collapse -- is that all the bad commercial real estate news there is in this stock?  I'd be surprised if it was/is.



    More information on the CGTS systems can be found at:

    http://home.mindspring.com/~mclark7/CGTS09.htm

     

    MICHAEL J CLARK
    Clark's Gate Timing System
    Hanoi, Vietnam

    84 4 221 92210



    Disclosure: NO POSITIONS TO DECLARE.

    Disclosure: No positions to disclose.
    Stocks: FNIO, COL, S, CDNS, CAB, BSX, BRK.A, BIIB, ARE, APOL, AOBI, ANV, AMTD, AMAT, AKAM, AHCHF, HMY, NEM, LXRX, LD, ELD, GG
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