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The Oxen Group is a financial analysis and investment opportunities newsletter-based website run by financial analyst David Ristau and features several other traders. Ristau and team have been working in stocks for several years and has developed a knack for identifying winning short-term and... More
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  • October Leaves Oxen Report Buy Portfolio Up 109% on Year, Short Sale Portfolio Up Nearly 37% 1 comment
    Nov 2, 2010 3:38 PM | about stocks: FAS, STZ, MAR, DPZ, TSL, ISTA, ERY, WGO, ENTG, SLM, GFIG, SKX, JKS

     

    October was another solid month for the Oxen Report, but some gains were limited by two major losses in FSI International (FSII) and Skechers (SKX). Our Buy/Overnight/Week Trade Portfolio for 2010 is up 109% so far this year with 155 trades. We have gotten 117 of these 155 actionable trades correct, giving the portfolio a 75.5% success rate thus far for the year. The Short Sale Portfolio is up nearly 39% thus far this year on 71 trades, and it has over an 83% success rate with 59 correct trades. Month-over-month, the Buy Portfolio went up 8% from September, and Short Sale Portfolio went up 5%. Finally, we have a new portfolio that just started in September, which is the Longterm Ratings. This portfolio is summarized below. Our 2009 portfolios ended with Buy Picks up 108% in 9 months. The Short Sale Portfolio ended up 10% in 6 months.
     
    The way that my portfolio works is that for Buy/Overnight/Week, I have started with $10000 in 2010. This amount is divided between four mini-accounts that each have $2500 in them. These mini-accounts A-D are rotated through each other so that I can account for multiple positions being open at one time and having time to let money settle after selling a position. Below the account portfolio for September of 2010 is available. The portfolio shows entry, exit, amount gained/lost, changes in account and total money, and the date of action. If you would like to view January – June, click here.
     
    The Buy/Overnight/Weekly Portfolio
     
    10/01/10FAS21.7821.830.22%5.05  5696.33 19430.72
    10/05/10STZ17.7517.931.00%29.44   3731.5819460.16
    10/06/10Mar37.6836.18-4.20%-180.54185.24   19279.66
    10/06/2010 – 10/07/10DPZ13.2113.915.40%286 5839.4  19565.66
    10/11/10TSL28.829.542.50%137.78  5834.11 19703.44
    10/11/2010 – 10/13/10ISTA4.274.43 (1/2), 4.51 (½)5.00%166.6   3898.1819870.04
    10/12/10ERY38.339.042.00%72.664257.9   19942.7
    10/12/10WGO10.510.94.00%214.4 6053.8  20157.1
    10/13/10SWY20.821.423.00%165.6  5999.71 20322.7
    10/14/2010 – 10/15/10WBS18.118.522.33%82.3   3980.4820405
    10/14/2010 – 10/18/10ENTG5.035.183.00%118.94376.8   20523.9
    10/15/2010 – 10/20/10SLM11.2211.13-0.80%-56.51 5997.29  20467.39
    10/15/2010 – 10/18/10GFIG4.935.14.00%198.72  6198.43 20666.11
    10/18/10FAS21.4522.093.00%110.4   4090.8820776.51
    10/18/10HBAN5.715.6-2.00%-92.264284.54   20684.25
    10/19/2010 – 10/25/10TSL26.34 (DD)27.64.80%571.38 6282.986484.12 21255.63
    10/19/2010 – 10/20/2010FSII3.062.58-15.50%-649.28   3441.620606.35
    10/20/10 – 10/25/10ENTG4.854.932.00%62.644347.18   20668.99
    10/21/2010 – 10/25/10AAWW52.9254.874.50%118.75   3560.3520787.74
    10/25/2010 – 10/28/10SKX23.823.75 (1/2), 19.44 (½)-9.25%-341.29   3219.0620446.45
    10/26/2010 – 11/01/10YGE11.62 (DD)11.741.00%101.684398.446334.24  20548.13
    10/27/2010 – 10/28/10KEG1010.15 (1/3), 10.30 (1/3), 10.02 (1/3)1.60%82.6 6365.58  20630.73
    10/27/2010 – 10/28/10KKD5.635.670.60%38.04  6522.16 20668.77
    10/28/2010 – 11/01/10JKS29.9930.90 (2/3), 36.35 (1/3)9.10%315.14   3534.220983.91


    Short Sale Portfolio
     
    The Short Sale Portfolio, which is up over 29% this year, is done in the same way as the Buy Portfolio. The only difference is that the Portfolio has three rotating accounts rather than four.
     
    10/01/10GYMB50.251.582.75%77.56   9789.42
    10/07/2010 – 10/08/2010WFR12.92 (DD)12.682.00%109.683215.513458.92 9899.1
    10/11/10FO55.1555.35-0.45%-19.4  3134.489879.7
    10/19/10STX15.615.32.00%53.83269.31  9933.5
    10/21/10AXP (Buy)39.840.10.75%17.8 3476.72 9951.3
    10/21/10IIIN (DD)9.188.932.80%77.25  3211.7310028.55
    10/26/10ENTG (Buy)5.425.675.00%142.753412.06  10171.3
    10/26/10SCHN5251.70.60%11.8 3488.52 10183.1
    10/28/10KKD (Buy)5.515.673.20%85.12  3298.8510268.22
     
    Long Term Ratings
     
    Date of Initial RatingStockEntry RatingExit RatingCurrent RatingFV Estimate
    09/10/10FSLRBelow 130Above 198Hold174
    09/14/10SKXBelow 22Above 32Hold28.5
    09/17/10ALGNBelow 15Above 24.50Hold22
    09/21/10CREEBelow 44Above 61Hold56
    09/23/10RYLBelow 15.25Above 22Hold20
    09/27/10FTRBelow 13.50Above 15Buy16
    09/28/10TSLBelow 27Above 45Hold38.5
    09/29/10GMCRBelow 17Above 25Sell22
    10/01/10JWNBelow 33Above 52Hold45
    10/05/10JCIBelow 27Above 43Hold35
    10/07/10PAYXBelow 27Above 36Hold34
    10/13/10SPWRABelow 15Above 24Buy21.5
    10/20/10FBelow 11.50Above 20Hold17
    10/22/10JACKBelow 24Above 31Buy30
    10/29/10BIGBelow 41Above 59Buy54
     
    Good Investing,
     
    David Ristau 

     

     

     

    Disclosure: none
    Stocks: FAS, STZ, MAR, DPZ, TSL, ISTA, ERY, WGO, ENTG, SLM, GFIG, SKX, JKS
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    David although your 109% gain over the YTD is impressive: what is truly remarkable is that you have maintained an accuracy of OVER 75% with 155 trades! I always see websites advertising 90% or even 99% accuracy...but I always find out that those sites recommend stocks on a bi-weekly/longer term basis. If you trade on a long term basis your chances of being correct on a trade increase.

    But David, you trade daily and your chances of being accurate are drastically reduced as opposed to longer duration trades....yet you still manage to mingle out over 75% accuracy!

    Keep up the great work, I'll be waiting to see the results for November
    3 Nov 2010, 11:54 AM Reply Like
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