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The Oxen Group is a financial analysis and investment opportunities newsletter-based website run by financial analyst David Ristau and features several other traders. Ristau and team have been working in stocks for several years and has developed a knack for identifying winning short-term and... More
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  • October Leaves Oxen Report Buy Portfolio Up 109% on Year, Short Sale Portfolio Up Nearly 37% 1 comment
    Nov 2, 2010 3:38 PM | about stocks: FAS, STZ, MAR, DPZ, TSL, VRX, ERY, WGO, ENTG, SLM, GFIG, SKX, JKS

     

    October was another solid month for the Oxen Report, but some gains were limited by two major losses in FSI International (NASDAQ:FSII) and Skechers (NYSE:SKX). Our Buy/Overnight/Week Trade Portfolio for 2010 is up 109% so far this year with 155 trades. We have gotten 117 of these 155 actionable trades correct, giving the portfolio a 75.5% success rate thus far for the year. The Short Sale Portfolio is up nearly 39% thus far this year on 71 trades, and it has over an 83% success rate with 59 correct trades. Month-over-month, the Buy Portfolio went up 8% from September, and Short Sale Portfolio went up 5%. Finally, we have a new portfolio that just started in September, which is the Longterm Ratings. This portfolio is summarized below. Our 2009 portfolios ended with Buy Picks up 108% in 9 months. The Short Sale Portfolio ended up 10% in 6 months.
     
    The way that my portfolio works is that for Buy/Overnight/Week, I have started with $10000 in 2010. This amount is divided between four mini-accounts that each have $2500 in them. These mini-accounts A-D are rotated through each other so that I can account for multiple positions being open at one time and having time to let money settle after selling a position. Below the account portfolio for September of 2010 is available. The portfolio shows entry, exit, amount gained/lost, changes in account and total money, and the date of action. If you would like to view January – June, click here.
     
    The Buy/Overnight/Weekly Portfolio
     
    10/01/10 FAS 21.78 21.83 0.22% 5.05     5696.33   19430.72
    10/05/10 STZ 17.75 17.93 1.00% 29.44       3731.58 19460.16
    10/06/10 Mar 37.68 36.18 -4.20% -180.5 4185.24       19279.66
    10/06/2010 – 10/07/10 DPZ 13.21 13.91 5.40% 286   5839.4     19565.66
    10/11/10 TSL 28.8 29.54 2.50% 137.78     5834.11   19703.44
    10/11/2010 – 10/13/10 ISTA 4.27 4.43 (1/2), 4.51 (½) 5.00% 166.6       3898.18 19870.04
    10/12/10 ERY 38.3 39.04 2.00% 72.66 4257.9       19942.7
    10/12/10 WGO 10.5 10.9 4.00% 214.4   6053.8     20157.1
    10/13/10 SWY 20.8 21.42 3.00% 165.6     5999.71   20322.7
    10/14/2010 – 10/15/10 WBS 18.1 18.52 2.33% 82.3       3980.48 20405
    10/14/2010 – 10/18/10 ENTG 5.03 5.18 3.00% 118.9 4376.8       20523.9
    10/15/2010 – 10/20/10 SLM 11.22 11.13 -0.80% -56.51   5997.29     20467.39
    10/15/2010 – 10/18/10 GFIG 4.93 5.1 4.00% 198.72     6198.43   20666.11
    10/18/10 FAS 21.45 22.09 3.00% 110.4       4090.88 20776.51
    10/18/10 HBAN 5.71 5.6 -2.00% -92.26 4284.54       20684.25
    10/19/2010 – 10/25/10 TSL 26.34 (NYSE:DD) 27.6 4.80% 571.38   6282.98 6484.12   21255.63
    10/19/2010 – 10/20/2010 FSII 3.06 2.58 -15.50% -649.28       3441.6 20606.35
    10/20/10 – 10/25/10 ENTG 4.85 4.93 2.00% 62.64 4347.18       20668.99
    10/21/2010 – 10/25/10 AAWW 52.92 54.87 4.50% 118.75       3560.35 20787.74
    10/25/2010 – 10/28/10 SKX 23.8 23.75 (1/2), 19.44 (½) -9.25% -341.29       3219.06 20446.45
    10/26/2010 – 11/01/10 YGE 11.62 (DD) 11.74 1.00% 101.68 4398.44 6334.24     20548.13
    10/27/2010 – 10/28/10 KEG 10 10.15 (1/3), 10.30 (1/3), 10.02 (1/3) 1.60% 82.6   6365.58     20630.73
    10/27/2010 – 10/28/10 KKD 5.63 5.67 0.60% 38.04     6522.16   20668.77
    10/28/2010 – 11/01/10 JKS 29.99 30.90 (2/3), 36.35 (1/3) 9.10% 315.14       3534.2 20983.91


    Short Sale Portfolio
     
    The Short Sale Portfolio, which is up over 29% this year, is done in the same way as the Buy Portfolio. The only difference is that the Portfolio has three rotating accounts rather than four.
     
    10/01/10 GYMB 50.2 51.58 2.75% 77.56       9789.42
    10/07/2010 – 10/08/2010 WFR 12.92 (DD) 12.68 2.00% 109.68 3215.51 3458.92   9899.1
    10/11/10 FO 55.15 55.35 -0.45% -19.4     3134.48 9879.7
    10/19/10 STX 15.6 15.3 2.00% 53.8 3269.31     9933.5
    10/21/10 AXP (Buy) 39.8 40.1 0.75% 17.8   3476.72   9951.3
    10/21/10 IIIN (DD) 9.18 8.93 2.80% 77.25     3211.73 10028.55
    10/26/10 ENTG (Buy) 5.42 5.67 5.00% 142.75 3412.06     10171.3
    10/26/10 SCHN 52 51.7 0.60% 11.8   3488.52   10183.1
    10/28/10 KKD (Buy) 5.51 5.67 3.20% 85.12     3298.85 10268.22
     
    Long Term Ratings
     
    Date of Initial Rating Stock Entry Rating Exit Rating Current Rating FV Estimate
    09/10/10 FSLR Below 130 Above 198 Hold 174
    09/14/10 SKX Below 22 Above 32 Hold 28.5
    09/17/10 ALGN Below 15 Above 24.50 Hold 22
    09/21/10 CREE Below 44 Above 61 Hold 56
    09/23/10 RYL Below 15.25 Above 22 Hold 20
    09/27/10 FTR Below 13.50 Above 15 Buy 16
    09/28/10 TSL Below 27 Above 45 Hold 38.5
    09/29/10 GMCR Below 17 Above 25 Sell 22
    10/01/10 JWN Below 33 Above 52 Hold 45
    10/05/10 JCI Below 27 Above 43 Hold 35
    10/07/10 PAYX Below 27 Above 36 Hold 34
    10/13/10 SPWRA Below 15 Above 24 Buy 21.5
    10/20/10 F Below 11.50 Above 20 Hold 17
    10/22/10 JACK Below 24 Above 31 Buy 30
    10/29/10 BIG Below 41 Above 59 Buy 54
     
    Good Investing,
     
    David Ristau 

     

     

     

    Disclosure: none
    Stocks: FAS, STZ, MAR, DPZ, TSL, VRX, ERY, WGO, ENTG, SLM, GFIG, SKX, JKS
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  • Giorgio
    , contributor
    Comments (177) | Send Message
     
    David although your 109% gain over the YTD is impressive: what is truly remarkable is that you have maintained an accuracy of OVER 75% with 155 trades! I always see websites advertising 90% or even 99% accuracy...but I always find out that those sites recommend stocks on a bi-weekly/longer term basis. If you trade on a long term basis your chances of being correct on a trade increase.

     

    But David, you trade daily and your chances of being accurate are drastically reduced as opposed to longer duration trades....yet you still manage to mingle out over 75% accuracy!

     

    Keep up the great work, I'll be waiting to see the results for November
    3 Nov 2010, 11:54 AM Reply Like
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