Seeking Alpha

Shalom Hamou's  Instablog

Shalom Hamou
Send Message
Our Goal: Propose as soon as possible an economy after the inevitable financial crash has occurred. That market economy is free of credit. So it will strip the banks from their relevance. Registration for ☮ La Nouvelle Économie. will be closed the day of the crash at the close of the NYSE,... More
My company:
☮ La Nouvelle Économie.
My blog:
☮ La Nouvelle Économie.
  • Enter Your €5 in The Crash Register. 0 comments
    Aug 1, 2009 8:39 AM | about stocks: AGG, AGZ, BBK, BHD, BHK, BIV, BWX, BWZ, EDV, IEF, IEI, IGOV, ISHG, GLD, GLL, OIL, SCO, SLV, UGL, QQQ, SPY

    The Age of Turbulence:

    Plea for a New World Economic Order.
    Bernanke: A New Economic Order, Please!
    Chapter VII.
    The Adjusted Credit Free,
    Free Market Economy.


    Paragraph 3:
    The Crash and Thereafter, Our Credit Free Currency.
    "This long run is a misleading guide to current affairs.

    In the long run we are all dead. Economists set themselves too easy, too useless a task if in tempestuous seasons they can only tell us
    that when the storm is past the ocean is flat again "


    John Maynard Keynes, 1st Baron Keynes of Tilton
    June 5th, 1883 – 21st April 1946
    A Tract on Monetary Reform.
    Chapter 3, 1923

    Abstract:

    As I showed in The Tract, the Liquidity Trap with its Crash and the following depression can't be avoided. As there is no way out, I had to imagine a plausible alternnative solution: The Adjusted Credit Free, Free Market Economy.

    This paragraph is about the preliminaries necessary to its implementation.

     

    Assumption:

    I have proved in my Tract: The Age of Turbulence: Plea for a New World Economic Order., that falling in the Liquidity Trap is the inevitable ominous fate of the credit based economy and that nothing can be done to prevent it or to get out of it in the short run.

    I don't know when the Crash will come and I believe no one does. The only thing I know with certainty it is that it will come.

    As I am seeing that the Asset Price Bubble is fast inflating, that the measures of perceived risks are fast decreasing and that economic conditions are improving: all of that necessarily precedes the Liquidity Trap:

    I have elaborated a strategy that tries determines from a probabilist point of view what conditions will be met when it will come: Preparing for The Crash, The Age of Turbulence. However it is is only probabilist:
     

    "It has been pointed out already that no knowledge of probabilities, less in degree than certainty, helps us to know what conclusions are true, and that there is no direct relation between the truth of a proposition and its probability.
    Probability begins and ends with probability.
    "

    John Maynard Keynes, 1st Baron Keynes of Tilton
    June 5th, 1883 – 21st April 1946
    The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money.
    Chapter 12: The State of Long-Term Expectation, VI.
    13tn December 1935


    "That is mission impossible. Indeed, the international financial community has made numerous efforts in recent years to establish such oversight, but none prevented or ameliorated the crisis that began last summer.

    Much as we might wish otherwise, policy makers cannot reliably anticipate financial or economic shocks or the consequences of economic imbalances.

    Financial crises are characterised by discontinuous breaks in market pricing the timing of which by definition must be unanticipated - if people see them coming, then the markets arbitrage them away.

    ...

    The clear evidence of underpricing of risk did not prod private sector risk management to tighten the reins.

    In retrospect, it appears that the most market-savvy managers, although conscious that they were taking extraordinary risks, succumbed to the concern that unless they continued to "get up and dance", as ex-Citigroup CEO Chuck Prince memorably put it, they would irretrievably lose market share.

    Instead, they gambled that they could keep adding to their risky positions and still sell them out before the deluge. Most were wrong."


    Chairman Alan Greenspan

    The Age of Turbulence: An Adventure in a New World

    [Economic Order?].

    A Turbulence is a Cahotic State of a Fluid Like a Liquid or a Gas.

    It Owns Most of the Proprieties of The Liquidity Trap.


    "But the essential issue here is one of insurance, with a relatively modest premium, against a potentially catastrophic, very low probability event.

    With that, Peter, would you outline your proposals to us?"


    Chairman Alan Greenspan
    Meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee.
    August 24th, 1999

    I had to design a New World Economic Order in order to preserve our economic well being: The Adjusted Credit Free, Free Market Economy.

    My Credit Free, Free Market Economy will use, a credit free currency. That currency will take an electronic form.

    In order to participate in my new economy you will have to have an account with our emission institute.


    "The difficulty lies, not in the new ideas, but in escaping from the old ones, which ramify, for those brought up as most of us have been, into every corner of our minds."

    John Maynard Keynes, 1st Baron Keynes of Tilton
    June 5th, 1883 – 21st April 1946
    The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money.
    Preface.
    13tn December 1935

    Register Now for the Credit Free Currency:

    To that order you must, before the crash, register with me a banknote of €5. It will be a valid tender for an account with our emission institute.

    Its unique Serial Number will be your account number, the banknote your title of ownership.

    The registered banknote is a legal tender for a right to participate in our Credit Free Economy.

    Before you ask: the reason I don't use the dollar is that a same serial number is used on several different banknotes. I can't use it as an identifier.

    Registering the banknote is known in game theory as a cheap talk. It allows the players, without engaging them in anyway, to coordinate their  intentions and actions and reach faster their optimal behaviour. In our case to implement faster our economy.

    Those who will register before The Crash will have the option of rapidly enjoying a prosperous, stable free market economy.

    Those who won't have registered before The Crash will irretrievably have lost that option and will have to stay in the Liquidity Trap and Economic Depression for a few decades.

     

    Privacy & Individual Freedom:

    I very much value privacy and individual freedom. Your Serial Number doesn't say anything about you. I hence will have no mean of invading your privacy or mingling with your inndividual freedom.

    I won't be able to assist any security agency even if they take my data against my will.

    I can't discriminate notably based on age, health, sex, sexual preference, race, religion, country, country of origin or political ideology.

     

    Who Should Register:

    One banknote must be registered by household.

    An household in any group of person that manage their budget together and that live under the same roof.

    For example an orphan that lives in an institution is an household by himself. If he lives in a foster home he belongs to the household he lives in.

    If a child lives alternatively with his mother and his father, he will chose to what household he belongs.

     

    Preserve Your Economic Rights:

    In that new economy all your rights will be linked to that banknote. These are the security precautions you must take:

    Never show your bank note to anyone.

    Don't tell its serial number to anyone.

    Don't tear it (the two serial numbers must appear on your banknote in order to be a valid tender.).

    Don't destroy it.

    Don't give it.

    Don't lose it.

    Keep it in a safe and secret place.

    If you don't own it anymore for any reason, register another one.

     

    Enter Your €5 in The Crash Register:

    In order to register your banknote you just need to enter its serial number in the Cash Register.

     


    In order to preserve your wealth you should have sold all of your long-term assets before the Crash.

    Our Credit Free, Free Market Economy Will be Jump Started After the Crash if the Number of €5 in The Crash Register Is Sufficient.

    It is of the Uttermost Importance That, When the Crash Comes, Which It Will Inevitably Do, we Restore as Fast as Possible the Economy by Quickly Implementing our Adjusted Credit Free, Free Market Economy as to Minimalize the Economic Sufferings of the People. 

    That will be possible only if a sufficient number of people register a banknote.

    It is hence in our best common interest that we propagate these ideas as much as we can.

    Talk to your family, to your friends, to your business associates.

    To that order I am building redundant networks. Grow the Networks!


    Shalom P. Hamou

    Shalom P. Hamou on LinkedIn.   

    "Even apart from the instability due to speculation, there is the instability due to the characteristic of human nature that a large proportion of our positive activities depend on spontaneous optimism
    rather than on a mathematical expectation, whether moral or hedonistic or economic.

    Most, probably, of our decisions to do something positive, the full consequences of which will be drawn out over many days to come, can only be taken as a result of animal spirits—of a spontaneous urge to action rather than inaction, and not as the outcome of a weighted average of quantitative benefits multiplied by quantitative probabilities.

    Enterprise only pretends to itself to be mainly actuated by the statements in its own prospectus, however candid and sincere. Only a little more than an expedition to the South Pole, is it based on an exact calculation of benefits to come.

    Thus if the animal spirits are dimmed and the spontaneous optimism falters, leaving us to depend on nothing but a mathematical expectation, enterprise will fade and die;—though fears of loss may have a basis no more reasonable than hopes of profit had before."

    John Maynard Keynes, 1st Baron Keynes of Tilton
    June 5th, 1883 – 21st April 1946
    The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money.
    Chapter 12: The State of Long-Term Expectation,
    Paragraph VII.

    13tn December 1935

    €5 Can't Buy You Love But It Can Buy You an Economy!

    All of This Stays True Until the
    Poor Becomes Richer Relatively to the Rich.
    It Will be Proved by The Crash.


    My Political Orientation
    According to Nolan Chart Survey!
    As Liberal as John Maynard Keynes!
    As Libertarian as Friedrich August von Hayek!

    Extreme Economic Conditions Call for Radical Solutions.
    The Provocative & Controversial Innovation
    Since John Maynard Keynes and Friedrich August von Hayek.


    Read the
    Publisher Agreement.

    The Tract will be available just in time for September 17tn, 2009
    I will then retire it from the Internet.

    © 1994-2009 Shalom P. Hamou.
Back To Shalom Hamou's Instablog HomePage »

Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

Comments (0)
Track new comments
Be the first to comment
Full index of posts »
Latest Followers

StockTalks

  • Market Crash Tomorrow as Bonds Tumble!
    Sep 16, 2010
  • Short Crude Oil from Sept 7th: Objective $20
    Aug 29, 2010
  • Short Stocks from Sept 7th First Objective SP500: 718
    Aug 29, 2010
More »

Latest Comments


Instablogs are Seeking Alpha's free blogging platform customized for finance, with instant set up and exposure to millions of readers interested in the financial markets. Publish your own instablog in minutes.