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Walter Kurtz
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Sober Look (www.SoberLook.com) is a financial blog that deals with issues in capital markets, risk management, the economy, the financial services industry, and regulatory policy, with emphasis on finance education. The goal is to get beyond the hype and hysteria and focus on real issues, using... More
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Sober Look
  • Europe's Unsustainable Markets  0 comments
    Nov 15, 2011 10:18 AM
    The situation in Europe feels unsustainable. The volatility comes and goes in waves, and each consecutive wave is worse than the previous. This morning Spain had a fairly bad bill auction (felt like Spanish banks ended up buying most of the paper) and European government bonds started unraveling. Spanish and Belgian bond spreads (to Bunds) hit new records. The most troubling is the selloff in French bonds. This is no longer the "fringe" of Europe, but the core. Below is the spread for 5-year French bonds - a new record.

    Source: Bloomberg 

    Simultaneously the interbank lending indicators continue to show stress. Below is a chart of the 2-year EUR Swap Spreads. We are now at levels not seen since late 2008.


    Source: Bloomberg 

    As scary as Europe looks, the US may be following a different path. More on that later on.
    SoberLook.com

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.
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