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2013 Stock Market An Exact Repeat Of 1954?


In the first nine months of this year, the S&P 500 has run up 18%-that's about two percent per month. Other key stock indices have provided similar returns. At this pace, by the end of 2013, the S&P 500 will be up 24% for the year.

As my doubts about the performance of key stock indices continue to mount, some in the mainstream are saying the market will only go higher.

A story that ran in Bloomberg on Monday said the movement we see in the S&P 500 now is an almost exact duplicate of what we saw in 1954-a year in which the S&P 500 rose 45%. The research found that the S&P 500 is moving pretty much the same on a day-to-day basis as it did in 1954. The correlation coefficient (a statistical measure that looks at the movement in two variables) is 0.95. The maximum you can have is 1. (Source: Bloomberg, September 30, 2013.)

In 1954, the S&P 500 reached the highest level since the Great Depression.

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