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Dialectical Materialist
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  • The Amazing Race against Silver... Starting April 28, 2011 55 comments
    Apr 29, 2011 2:25 PM | about stocks: AAPL, MSFT, F, NVAX, KNDI, SGMO, DNN, ATPG, CPST, EGT, GPL, GWMGF, LYSCF, SLV, GLD, LPIH, SIRI, C, ONP, TLON, VTG, INTC, CSCO, CPHD, CEO, DOG, SLW
    In response to the thread on QC #171 about what might be as good as or better than silver, I am tracking these picks versus silver. 

    The idea will be to see which if any outperform silver between now and 12/31/2011 and then 12/31/2012

    If folks add picks, I'll may add them.  I am using the opening price on 4/28/11 for all picks.  This is not like Moon's project, because I will not be updating nor trading in and out of any of these picks.

    The model I will choose is to assume a $10,000 investment in each stock.  This is just to give a round number and to allow me to disregard any money left from "fractional shares".   I won't include friction.  This mean silver is bought and valued at spot and stocks have no commissions.  If that simplification bothers you, you can add adjustments accordingly.

    The Pacemaker -- Silver:  NY open at $49.00 -- 204 ounces

    Silver's Big Brother -- Gold:  NY Open at $1539 -- 6.5 ounces

    DM's Picks.  Intended to represent stable and mainstream stocks that may nevertheless have a nice return in the coming years (including dividend where appropriate).  I don't expect each of these to beat silver, but AAPL should and my theory is the other two will compare well with silver by the end of 2012.

    (AAPL) Open at $347.04 -- 28 shares
    (MSFT) Open at $26.55 -- 376 shares
    (F)      Open at $15.49 -- 645 shares

    And a wildcard or two:
    (LPH) Open at $1.85 -- 5405 shares


    Maya's Picks.  Representing mostly small stocks that may see explosive growth.
    (OTCQB:AXPW) Open at $0.84 -- 11,904 shares
    (NVAX) Open at $2.60 -- 3846 shares
    (KNDI) Open at $2.75 -- 3636 shares
    (SGMO) Open at $7.49 -- 1335 shares
    (DNN) Open at $2.26 -- 4424 shares
    (OTCQB:TAMO) Open at $0.20 -- 50000 shares
    (ATPG) Open at $17.08 -- 585 shares
    (CPST) Open at $1.93 -- 5181 shares
    (EGT) Open at $0.32 -- 31250 shares
    (GPL) Open at $3.72 -- 2688 shares
    (OTCQX:GWMGF) Open at $0.85 -- 11764 shares
    (OTCPK:LYSCF) Open at $2.32 -- 4310 shares

    Acehart's Picks.
    Gold:  NY Open at $1539 -- 6.5 ounces
    (GPL) Open at $3.72 -- 2688 shares
    (OTCPK:LYSCF) Open at $2.32 -- 4310 shares
    (OTCQB:AXPW) Open at $0.84 -- 11,904 shares
    (SLW) Open at $41.08 -- 243 shares
    (SNDXF.PK) Open at $1.12 -- 8928 shares
    (NXY) Open at $25.80 -- 387 shares

    Ricard's Picks.
    GLD Open at $149.90 -- 66 shares

    ThisTimeItsForReal's Picks.
    (SIRI) Open at $1.98 -- 5050 shares
    (C) Open at $4.58 -- 2183 shares
    (ONP) Open at $3.76 -- 2659 shares
    (OTC:TLON) Open at $1.61 -- 6211 shares
    (VTG) Open at $1.77 -- 5649 shares
    (INTC) Open at $22.79 -- 438 shares
    (CSCO) Open at 17.34 -- 576 shares
    (CPHD) Open at $32.12 -- 311 shares
    (AAPL) Open at $347.04 -- 28 shares
    (MSFT) Open at $26.55 -- 376 shares

    John Petersen's Picks.
    (OTC:CHHP) Open at $7.76 -- 1288 shares
    (OTCQB:AXPW) Open at $0.84 -- 11,904 shares 


    At the end of 2011 and 2012 and maybe more frequently if I feel like it, I'll update the value of these picks.

    I invite others to submit picks.  For apples to apples comparison, I'll use the 4/28 opening price, so no fair waiting for something to explode first and then mentioning it!

    To silverbugs who may take issue with the timing I want to make something clear.  The idea is to compare the legs silver may yet have remaining to some new stock picks.  It is not to dispute or discredit the phenomenal run silver has already had this year.  In other words it is meant as an exercise in "where should your money go today" not as a way to impugn the value of a silver portfolio.  And, of course, it is possible silver may yet put many of these stocks to shame!

    Lastly I should say I am tagging this with the ticker symbol SLV to represent silver, but only so it will show up in searches for SLV, not to equate SLV with silver.

    Addendum for those curious about the "rules":
    You can pick as many as 12 stocks or as few as one (easily priced commodities count too as long as I have a source for the price).  No matter how many you choose, you get $10k value of each pick.  At the end of 2011 and 2012 your picks will be totaled and your avg return calculated.  So if you have one pick that goes to zero and one that doubles, you will be at 0% return (break even).  So it is not an advantage to choose more than one or two unless you want to.  (Although for Maya's rum you need at least 6.)

    Dividends will be calculated for stocks that issue one.  So if you have a stock that doesn't change in value but gives a 3% dividend, your return would be 3%.

    If there are other questions I will clarify later.




    Themes: Silver Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, F, NVAX, KNDI, SGMO, DNN, ATPG, CPST, EGT, GPL, GWMGF, LYSCF, SLV, GLD, LPIH, SIRI, C, ONP, TLON, VTG, INTC, CSCO, CPHD, CEO, DOG, SLW
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Comments (55)
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  • This looks like great fun. I already have $120,000 in virtual money! Feeling like buying everyone Cheez-itz and caviar.

     

    If all goes well, I'll have a respectable $200,000 by the end of 2012. And I'll be wildly satisfied.

     

    But, I think more will come evident. Much more.

     

    29 Apr 2011, 08:35 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Each pick will be rated on its own terms, Maya. So you'll have to own up to the losers in your book!

     

    And no we don't get to cash out at the end... unless I get some sponsors :)
    29 Apr 2011, 08:39 PM Reply Like
  • I'll throw in a bottle of Ron Zacapa 23 year aged rum toward the winner of this contest. Equivilent of 50 bucks right there on the line if someone can top my picks.
    29 Apr 2011, 09:15 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » We're talking average return on your entire portfolio, right? I think you have some pretty good picks in there. I'm gonna add LPH on my side.
    29 Apr 2011, 09:19 PM Reply Like
  • Okay: I have to amend my bet. If you want to win that delicious rum, you have to submit at least six picks. They all can be mine or any mix. But there has to be at least six.

     

    I want to give that winner a bottle of great rum!
    29 Apr 2011, 09:22 PM Reply Like
  • MAYA

     

    After what was said about you i will bow out...it wasn't nice to print even though i never said it, Once it is printed i said it !!My apologies to you as well

     

    ACE
    29 Apr 2011, 11:34 PM Reply Like
  • DM: Yes...and good pick. I was going to add LPH, but I figured a dozen picks was enough for a "basket approach."

     

    By the way, every one of my fantasy picks I currently own in real life. Five picks with more shares, so I'm hoping this contest does well.
    30 Apr 2011, 10:46 AM Reply Like
  • DM

     

    HOW MUCH GOLD CAN I PUT ON LIST???

     

    ace
    29 Apr 2011, 08:51 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » I added gold. 6.5 ounces for $10,000
    29 Apr 2011, 09:07 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » I gave you credit for the gold too, ace, but I don't want to put words in your mouth and claim that was "your pick". Unless it was. In which case I will label it as such.
    29 Apr 2011, 09:26 PM Reply Like
  • not sure where you mentioned gold, see what i have to deal with. WHERE??But seriously i was planning on selling some silver profits and buy gold. Now what are the rules, how many stocks can you list, is it an avg...??
    29 Apr 2011, 11:32 PM Reply Like
  • Didn't really read the rules. If 10k is the most then all i want is gold...I can live with that.

     

    ACE
    29 Apr 2011, 11:45 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » An instablog can be edited, so I added gold after you mentioned it. It wasn't there when you first commented. I will update your other picks. And oh yeah, you are right, this is not a "fund" in the sense that you can buy and sell in and out of positions. It is just a footrace. Any bad calls will haunt each player's performance.
    30 Apr 2011, 12:04 AM Reply Like
  • No idea if this is possible, DM, but if possible I would "tag" every stock mentioned, possibly drawing in more SA peeps.

     

    Somebody out there that feels strongly that a stock is going to rise significantly, I would love to know about.

     

    Also think picks can be duplicated, pointing others toward a mutual investment thesis.
    29 Apr 2011, 08:55 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » I did tag the stocks. I suppose I should put the symbols themselves in parentheses to make them appear as stocks as well.
    29 Apr 2011, 09:03 PM Reply Like
  • DM

     

    THINK ABOUT THIS. once you make a pick you cannot drop it. This way you are stuck with your duds...is that a rule?

     

    ACE
    29 Apr 2011, 11:37 PM Reply Like
  • DM

     

    CONFUSED, it says 10k in each investment. DOES THAT MEAN EACH PERSON CAN ONLY INVEST 10K, or each pick can be 10k. EXAMPLE. MAYA can virtually invest 100k, Dm invest 20k, ACE invest 10k..
    29 Apr 2011, 11:50 PM Reply Like
  • Can Sandstone be added??? sndxf i believe it was
    29 Apr 2011, 11:41 PM Reply Like
  • DM

     

    If i can add then SLW as well..
    29 Apr 2011, 11:58 PM Reply Like
  • I have very little imagination, so I will just go with GLD, all in.
    30 Apr 2011, 12:01 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Great!
    30 Apr 2011, 12:04 AM Reply Like
  • DOG again if allowed as well as Lynas
    30 Apr 2011, 12:05 AM Reply Like
  • remove DOG, THESE SHOULD BE MY SIX IF THAT IS NEEDED............GPL, , AXPW. LYNAS, GOLD, SLW, SNDXF
    30 Apr 2011, 12:26 AM Reply Like
  • DM

     

    Keep in mind if i go silent for two weeks you can remove my name,...we know what happened...But if i am only in a hospital with tubes up my ass i will have DOUBLE M get in touch and say i am still here!!!!

     

    Hope you guys take a couple of minutes of my horse race. I posted it today.....even if you don't like racing that much the final will have your heart pumping..remember winner gets 5k, second 2.5k 3 rd gets 1200 bucks 4 th gets 800 5 th gets 500 bucks. This is no virtual, this is real.

     

    HEY DM YOU GOTTA GET THAT NEW CHAP TO PLAY, LETS SEE HOW GOOD HE REALLY IS !!!! THE DOGGIE GUY////
    30 Apr 2011, 12:34 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » I'll get your picks in over the weekend and also check out your link. I hope you can follow this Silver race along with the rest of us for many years.

     

    I will try to get a few more folks to get picks in over the next few days...
    30 Apr 2011, 12:52 AM Reply Like
  • Didn't see this one until now but I love silver so I think it outperforms my picks but will still pick a few for the fun of it. Based on $10k on April 28th I would say...

     

    Company---------Shares
    TLON.OB.......... 1000
    SIRI..................... 955
    C........................ 400
    ONP..................... 300
    CSCO.................. 100
    CPHD.................... 60

     

    Hope you'll add me to the race!
    30 Apr 2011, 01:13 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Sure will. I'll get it posted over the weekend.
    30 Apr 2011, 01:14 AM Reply Like
  • Sure, for the 5k entry fee all are welcomed!!!
    30 Apr 2011, 11:27 PM Reply Like
  • I thought is was a grand total of 10K. Are you saying I get 10K for every stock i pick up ti 12?
    30 Apr 2011, 11:32 PM Reply Like
  • I have to add C&D Technologies to the list. They were a train wreck last year and the common stockholders lost 95% of their equity. After a monster reverse split the stock is currently trading at $8. My rough estimates put the current market cap at $121 million, which is roughly the amount of debt that got converted to equity.

     

    Before the hard times, C&D carried a market cap in the $50 million range with $125 million in debt. I have to believe there's 50% to 100% of short-term upside, particularly if the operating efficiencies that were starting to show continued.

     

    C&D should be filing a Form 10-K on Monday, which will give the market it's first look at the numbers after the dust settles.
    30 Apr 2011, 12:31 PM Reply Like
  • John: Surely you want to include Axion along with C&D?
    30 Apr 2011, 01:09 PM Reply Like
  • You'd picked Axion and I didn't want to seem like a cheerleader. I thought the goal was to mention companies that hadn't made somebody else's list.
    30 Apr 2011, 01:23 PM Reply Like
  • DM: If say Novavax gets bought, will the stock choice then shift into who bought them, or, is that stock then terminated in the competition?
    30 Apr 2011, 01:11 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » I would try to handle it the way it would actually affect your portfolio. If they were bought for X shares in ABC company, that is what would happen. If it was cash, the value of the shares would be assigned to the pick. Etc.
    30 Apr 2011, 01:22 PM Reply Like
  • John: Nope. Any mix of stocks can be used. Axion, I believe, has already been twice chosen. I'm hoping to "glean leans" from the particpants, in seeing how many choose the same stock.

     

    You may add Axion. I insist ;-)
    30 Apr 2011, 01:37 PM Reply Like
  • I'll definitely add Axion and guess that your target may be low.

     

    I track multi-day rolling average volumes to smooth day to day variation and the 50-, 100- and 200-day lines are going hyperbolic. Volume in the first four months of 2011 is 1.4x volume for all of last year. While it may seem a bit presumptuous, I believe most of the buying is coming from bottom fishing SA readers who follow my blog and are looking for far more than a trading profit.

     

    Axion's been under intense selling pressure over the last year but it's easy to forget that every trade involves both a sell side and a buy side. Most people want to gossip about who the sellers are. I'm far more interested in the buyers because once a seller runs out of stock he becomes irrelevant. When a huge amount of stock moves from weak hands to strong hands over an extended period of time, there's only one possible outcome when the sellers run out.

     

    I've been through this drill several times over the years and there's a drawn out period where stock moves from weak hands to strong hands and then one day an inflection point is reached and it's an entirely different world. I've never been able to predict the timing in advance, but unless Axion's volumes plummet it can't last much longer.

     

    If you figure that half the stock sold in December 2009 went into weak hands that makes for a 22 million share supply. Adding three million more for Quercus which got its head handed to it in the 2008 crash takes the mush to 25 million in June 2010. Since then 45 million shares have traded – 22.5 million shares of selling and 22.5 million shares of buying.

     

    Macro-supply vs macro-demand is a dynamic that doesn't show up in any charts, but it's the most reliable indicator I've ever found.
    30 Apr 2011, 02:22 PM Reply Like
  • add nexen and dog...Thanks
    30 Apr 2011, 09:39 PM Reply Like
  • AMYONE WANT TO ENJOYS A DAY AT THE RACES HERE ARE THE WINNINGS
    1 st 5k, 2 nd 2.5k, 3 rd 1.25k, 4 th 800 bucks, 5 th 500 bucks....no matter what the track odd are these are an owners payout for this race, ENJOY !!!!

     

    www.meadowsgaming.com/.../

     

    1)Then click race relplays
    2)then clicks Lat Mondays date
    3)Then click 2 nd race
    He is the 3 horse TIS HIMSELF...Remember we expected him to win but the driver has to do the right thing ot you ca get into a lot of troublr sitting in a race bike...too tight to spit throug....100 things
    1 May 2011, 03:44 AM Reply Like
  • As i said i am not a big gambler, but i had opened an xspressbet account to watch my races and once in a while educatedling bet, Well i was inactive once and they made an offer. I bet 50 bucks of my own money in a weeks time, then they will match it with another 50 of there own money.....HANDING OUT FREE MONEY IF YOU ARE DISCIPLINED.

     

    Wel i sent my 50 in by check and found one race where i have the winner cold....went off at 1 to 9, So i would only win a dime for every 2 bucks bet. Didn't care as i was after the free 50. Well the horse wins but i bet him to finish 3 rd. Bingo i win.Easily and no sweat. I now call expressbet and ask where is my free 50, they look it up and said you meet the rules it is added within minutes, would you like to bet ?? No thanks not yet i answered!!

     

    Now espressbet puts my 50 buck voucher in and within days i find another race when the horse is going off 1 to 9....Bet it too third , it wins but remember i only need it to finish in the top three as the difference in the money is minimal. Now i am up to 115 bucks in the account, call expressbet and tell them to send me back my balance.They are not too happy, sure you don't want to bet i am asked??? Nope please just send me a check....

     

    Give the wife the first 50 and then give her the balance for house bills. She chuckled and said i hope they do this again. You see the secret is to not bet every race if you want to make money, if you want a day out with the guys fine, you go into that day knowing you are probably coming home with less money than you started with...

     

    Well i just got another offer from espressbet and i guess i am going to have to take their 50 plus bucks again. You see you need discipline. You learn that owning these horses.

     

    Old saying" in the beginning the owner has all the money and the trainer has all the knowledge, soon the trainer has all your money and you have his knowledge" ........Bill Englehart....Yes i do sign hats when asked....lol....

     

    ACE
    1 May 2011, 04:45 AM Reply Like
  • Guess the doggie with all those winners wants no part of the free drink.

     

    Had a feeling, just had a feeling

     

    ACE
    2 May 2011, 11:12 PM Reply Like
  • DM

     

    If you go back a few post you will see i changed my picks dome. Like DOG WAS REMOVED. Take a look when you get a chance

     

    ACE
    3 May 2011, 12:43 AM Reply Like
  • I'm going to play six or seven I will have to go look at prices on 4/28/11. Since I'm late to the party I will use stocks I already own: (BAC), (TLON), (NETC), (DRYS), (QREDF), (NVAX), (SSGDY) and last but not least (SUG).
    3 May 2011, 06:17 PM Reply Like
  • D.M.: Greetings. Are dividends treated as reinvested? I have found that compounding dividends adds significantly to over all returns.
    4 May 2011, 11:05 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » No, for simplicity, there are no shares added at any time, but you're right that this is a flaw in this model. It is one of many, but it's just intended to be a simple and fun exercise.

     

    I'll get your picks posted soon.
    4 May 2011, 01:11 PM Reply Like
  • D.M. Thanks. No problem with calculating dividends at the % rate as an add on as suggested in the rules.
    4 May 2011, 02:10 PM Reply Like
  • DM

     

    aH GO BACK AND ADD DOG !! sorry
    4 May 2011, 01:07 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » The portfolios will be closing this Friday. After that there will be no changes allowed for existing players, though I may allow a new person to add next week if they really want to play.

     

    I will wait until Friday to add back Dog and/or make any other changes for anyone at that time. I will probably tweek my picks as well.
    4 May 2011, 01:13 PM Reply Like
  • Let me add ZBB as a last minute draft choice.
    4 May 2011, 01:46 PM Reply Like
  • D.M.: Greetings. I took the liberty of forwarding a link to this INSTA to Raechel. As you may know she has been moved over to Market Currents and this seems to be a market current game. A very entertaining one at that. She hasn't gotten back to me as yet but don't be surprised if she drops by for a look. I will match Maya's generous offer with a bottle of Patrone 1860, a comparable adult beverage but not for the faint of heart. Shooters all around! Got lime?
    4 May 2011, 02:19 PM Reply Like
  • Looks like a fun game. My picks, CBLI and AXPW. I actually have 8,895 shares of AXPW. I don't know how you want to value that but today's close was .76 so I like that number as a sandbag marker. To round out to $10K I'll pick CBLI which closed at $7.71 and ZBB which closed at 1.16.

     

    My AXPW is valued on the close today at $6,760.20 so I will toss in 200 virtual shares of CBLI for $1542 and 1498 virtual shares of ZBB for the rest.

     

    For the record I'm all in on AXPW.
    4 May 2011, 06:02 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz: Greetings. If I understand correctly you get a $10,000 stake in each stock and it tracks up or down from there. At the benchmarks set by D.M. thier performance will be compared to the performance of silver for the same time period begining at the close 4/28/2011. If your returns are better than silver your ahead of the curve if not your behind it. At the end of the game the player with the portfolio that has performed best against silver will be declared the winner. With a little luck I'll be drinking Maya's Rum in Copan at the end of the world party. LOL.
    4 May 2011, 06:27 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » You are correct, RBF. Bangwhiz, I'll be happy to add your picks to the board later this week. All stocks start at opening value on 4/28.
    4 May 2011, 08:00 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks. Good luck all
    4 May 2011, 08:55 PM Reply Like
  • Very interesting so far. This gives a nice perspective on choices. Of my ten picks I am basically dead even with nine but
    the real dud of my group TLON is solely responsible for me being about $3500 in the red. Thank goodness I
    didn't invest in this one for real. What a dog but then again perhaps one can look at this stock now that it has had a 33% nose-dive. Perhaps its a buy soon? Anyone been watching this dud? Does it have any potential or is it one for the garbage can?

     

    Also what are the latest thoughts on that non-mover AXPW? Basically, in one year, when all is said and done its done nothing. Is this one people in here like for its long-term potential or is it just wishful confidence in a company that is more than likely to do nothing beyond a buck per share?
    19 May 2011, 08:12 PM Reply Like
  • forreal: Greetings. I have been in and out of Talon Therapeutics (TLON) for a couple of years. When I first started trading it it was named Hanna Bio. I usually buy it around $0.40 and sell above $1. Moves in this stock are usually in large increments followed by a period of sideways activity which is where it's at now. I'm waiting to see which direction it will move this time around. Axion Power (AXPW) is emerging from the valley of death and will likely move up over the next year as they bring more production on line. They have a venture in progress with an un-named U.S. vehicle manufacturer and some grant money coming their way in the NOV time frame IIR.
    24 May 2011, 12:58 PM Reply Like
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