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pete123
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I am an engineer in my early 30's living in the US. I am particularly interested in energy, lately natgas and coal, and have a bit of a bias for fearing inflation. Traded stocks and ETF's since 2004, options since 2012.
  • US Coal Producers Not Out Of The Woods Yet 4 comments
    Oct 22, 2012 1:13 PM

    took profits on (NYSE:ACI) and CLD.

    negative view on coal producers which ended 2012Q1/Q2 with substantial un-priced 2013 production. Seems like 2013 analyst estimates weren't accounting for this.

    going short ACI on expectation that coming earnings releases (next 2 quarters or so) will reveal reductions in 2013 pricing, which ought to result in reduced 2013 analyst earnings estimates. Might be jumping the gun on this a bit, so being careful.

    Same view on (JRCC) and (NYSE:ANR) by the way, with the added bonus that the way it is going, JRCC is still facing bankruptcy in early 2014.

    Themes: Coal Energy
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  • pete123
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    Author’s reply » closed the aci, put more into jrcc.
    24 Oct 2012, 03:45 PM Reply Like
  • pete123
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    Comments (884) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » long puts, that is
    24 Oct 2012, 03:57 PM Reply Like
  • pete123
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    Author’s reply » some useful data from cnx's earnings

     

    http://bit.ly/VrLsEa;highlight=
    25 Oct 2012, 06:04 PM Reply Like
  • pete123
    , contributor
    Comments (884) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » closed jrcc position today, 104% profit. probably has more room to fall too, with analyst downgrades yet to come. but i figured if the price stabilizes around $2 ish, the excitement will fade and the puts will lose value anyway. also still a remote possibility that the "selective default" turns out to be a genuine event of default, in which case i will feel stupid...
    13 Nov 2012, 11:09 AM Reply Like
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