Seeking Alpha

pete123's  Instablog

pete123
19 Followers
22 Following
Send Message
I am an engineer in my early 30's living in the US. I am particularly interested in energy, lately natgas and coal, and have a bit of a bias for fearing inflation. Traded stocks and ETF's since 2004, options since 2012.
  • US Coal Producers Not Out Of The Woods Yet 4 comments
    Oct 22, 2012 1:13 PM

    took profits on (ACI) and CLD.

    negative view on coal producers which ended 2012Q1/Q2 with substantial un-priced 2013 production. Seems like 2013 analyst estimates weren't accounting for this.

    going short ACI on expectation that coming earnings releases (next 2 quarters or so) will reveal reductions in 2013 pricing, which ought to result in reduced 2013 analyst earnings estimates. Might be jumping the gun on this a bit, so being careful.

    Same view on (JRCC) and (ANR) by the way, with the added bonus that the way it is going, JRCC is still facing bankruptcy in early 2014.

    Themes: Coal Energy
Back To pete123's Instablog HomePage »

Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

This post has 4 comments:

Track new comments on this article
  •  
    closed the aci, put more into jrcc.
    24 Oct 2012, 03:45 PM Reply Like
  •  
    long puts, that is
    24 Oct 2012, 03:57 PM Reply Like
  •  
    some useful data from cnx's earnings

    http://bit.ly/VrLsEa;highlight=
    25 Oct 2012, 06:04 PM Reply Like
  •  
    closed jrcc position today, 104% profit. probably has more room to fall too, with analyst downgrades yet to come. but i figured if the price stabilizes around $2 ish, the excitement will fade and the puts will lose value anyway. also still a remote possibility that the "selective default" turns out to be a genuine event of default, in which case i will feel stupid...
    13 Nov 2012, 11:09 AM Reply Like
Full index of posts »
Latest Followers

StockTalks

More »

Latest Comments


Most Commented
Posts by Themes
coal, Coal, Coal Energy, Energy, energy, Energy Natural Gas Utilities, utilities
Instablogs are Seeking Alpha's free blogging platform customized for finance, with instant set up and exposure to millions of readers interested in the financial markets. Publish your own instablog in minutes.