Danny Devito's  Instablog

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vanduppe Comments (11)
 
went long in the nat gas oct future today, expect a spike in the short term due to very oversold imho...but i'm looking for other ways to participate in a recovery long term besides UNG..any tips??
31 Aug 2009, 02:51 PM Reply Like

Danny Devito Comments (85)
 
I don't like to go long in futures when the next is up 1 USD this one.

I'm make an example.

The October trade 5 USD
The November trade 6 USD
the December trade 7 USD
is just an example, the price are fantasy

if I buy the october at 5 and close at 4.75, I lose 0,25% or 5%.

then for make money... I can't do else to buy the november, but I've fear to buy so expensive at 6.... or 5,75, so what to do?

this is the problem of contango.

so I prefer to buy when the spreads are lower, however is very hard to analyze commodities like this, it's just a consideration, can take hours such discussion and nobody have an answer about the spreads of the futures expirations.
31 Aug 2009, 05:15 PM Reply Like

vanduppe Comments (11)
 
just trading for a short term spike within a week...
1 Sep 2009, 12:03 PM Reply Like

Danny Devito Comments (85)
 
I'm bullish on gas only in one way

BUY the gas and store it... store in the garden, under the bed, etc etc

is the unique way to make money with energies. (:-)))
1 Sep 2009, 12:11 PM Reply Like

vanduppe Comments (11)
 
i don't have the space for that ;-) i like nat gas @ these levels...ung is not the play, can only use futures now...i see the contango, but don't know any other way to play long, do you?
1 Sep 2009, 12:14 PM Reply Like

Danny Devito Comments (85)
 
May be an arbitrage? long future and short UNG, can give some gain without take care of trend (:-))
1 Sep 2009, 01:10 PM Reply Like

vanduppe Comments (11)
 
just like to play long...everybody is bearish right now, always a good time to go long ;-)
1 Sep 2009, 02:06 PM Reply Like

Danny Devito Comments (85)
 
yes, no proble to be long on futures.... tell them (to UNG holders) and see what happen then to me and you (:-))) a lot of activity to buy futures.
1 Sep 2009, 03:57 PM Reply Like

vanduppe Comments (11)
 
heavily oversold imho...waiting for a buy signal in intraday chart oct future now...
2 Sep 2009, 01:31 PM Reply Like

Danny Devito Comments (85)
 
I know.. I hope rebound because I've still the spread UNG/USO to close.
So I'm bullish or at least bearish on oil that should fall soon because China sentiment and indexes are still in a bear hand.
2 Sep 2009, 01:34 PM Reply Like

vanduppe Comments (11)
 
when nobody expects a rebound it happens ;-) stocks markets will recover towards the weekend...nice entry for short imho
2 Sep 2009, 01:47 PM Reply Like

Danny Devito Comments (85)
 
let's hope in rebound right now that UNG fall.... so premium to 1% max (-))))
2 Sep 2009, 03:32 PM Reply Like

Danny Devito Comments (85)
 
today are buying a lot of futures... due to the arbitrage, so this should help you, however is still near the low so the pressure there is too much.

2 Sep 2009, 03:34 PM Reply Like

Danny Devito Comments (85)
 
anybody can help me with the formula for the spread tool of esignal?

I need to make the chart of the spread short UNG and long NG V9 the october future and obtain an index so I can post charts each day of intraday arbitrage.
2 Sep 2009, 04:23 PM Reply Like

vanduppe Comments (11)
 
below 2.4 in oct future i will go long :-)
3 Sep 2009, 02:03 PM Reply Like

Danny Devito Comments (85)
 
again?
3 Sep 2009, 04:17 PM Reply Like

Danny Devito Comments (85)
 
too long to explain why my target, however a bargain target and unique I've is 2.18, but can stop before of course. And the next future I don't believe can arrive so far.
3 Sep 2009, 04:18 PM Reply Like

Plant the seeds Comments (227)
 
If UNG does close and force a liquidation then how can anybody be long
3 Sep 2009, 05:04 PM Reply Like

Danny Devito Comments (85)
 
I mean, one instant before the liquidation are accepted only people "long" or even who is "short". I mean there is some rule where if they decleare the liquidation shorters need to buy the shares at the market prices when it is still trading while only who is long can just wait they will liquidate and pay the NAV price to them?

Do you understand now? I need to know if there is some rule for short sellers because if we need to close positions before the liquidation... we can't earn the full difference betwen the overvalued price of now and the real NAV price that they will use for the settlement.
3 Sep 2009, 05:21 PM Reply Like