Gosh it seems like forever that we've been waiting for today's election. So, here we are in the midst of a moment that could put another nail in free markets, state's rights, religious belief, and America's greatness.
The profound notion that somehow successful people are the problem and less successful people should be rewarded is more than stupid. It's insulting. We all know the real deal. We all know a lot of people that aren't successful because they haven't made the effort, the sacrifices, or took the gamble.
I'm not trying to be disrespectful. On the contrary, I love that we can choose our paths, but I hate that those that take the one less traveled and find gold at the end of the trail should have to go on the run from a posse of couch-sitters and their government attack dogs. There is legitimate frustration about how difficult it is to climb the ladder of success these days. Incomes are actually lower now than four years ago. It's easy to lose faith in the American dream unless you understand America's history and the history of the world. For those willing to punish their successful neighbors out of envy, it would be wise to know it erodes their own foundation even more.
If you live vicariously through the biggest robber baron in history, the United States federal government, you're making a giant mistake.
Robin Hood is a great hero in a monarchy-setting, but in this world, stealing from those households earning $250,000 a year is just theft.
Villain Turned Hero
I guess it's a theme that never gets old; the villain sees the light and becomes the hero. Over the past weekend, "Wreck It Ralph" crushed the competition to win the box-office. I haven't seen the movie yet, apparently Ralph saves an arcade from a fate of death that was put into motion while he was still a single-minded game villain. In politics, we don't often see where someone will switch ideology or political parties. On that note, it is unlikely there will be any surprises from either candidate with the outcome of the election. On the contrary, I think Obama II would be Wreck it Ralph on steroids doubling down on existing policies while bringing additional, even more harsh rules and regulations to life.
There may be inkling inside Romney's gut to drift to the center, but he would stick to campaign promises, which would be music to the ears of businesses. I would hope he comes in wrecking barriers to prosperity and walls of division that pit American against American based on incomes. At this point, everyone agrees that Romney is good for stocks while Obama is good for bonds.
Sharing the Wealth
A smart friend of mine sent me an email yesterday saying he would load up on businesses in general because corporate risk is socialized. I get that notion, bailouts mitigate risks for big businesses and those big ominous banks have only gotten larger. But on that notion, I also think there will be an effort to socialize profits.
I see a second Obama term coming after profits hard with more taxes and penalties. I see a second term coming after all that money offshore to establish an infrastructure bank - a source of funding for union members.
It's wrong to socialize corporate losses and theft to socialize their earnings. Under the idea that no success has occurred in this nation without the government so that money is owed beyond taxes already levied would be a big time agenda item (even more so if Elizabeth Warren won). The only thing that might stop a full avalanche of socialism under a reelected president Obama would be tight results and control of the House and or Senate by Republicans, but it would be a serious battle.
Winners...No Matter What
There are some industries that should excel under either candidate. Housing has hit bottom and although, 99% of buyers are investors and flippers, there are opportunities associated with that space. Lennar LEN is well positioned to do well.
In addition, Hurricane Sandy will help environmental companies along with a general green push that nobody finds offensive if done intelligently. Clean Harbors CLH is well positioned even before Sandy to be a great stock to own in a 401K.
And then there are Wall Street firms that will come out of their bunkers once Dodd-Frank and Basel III are complete. Yes, their earnings power will be diminished but Goldman GS and JP Morgan JPM will find a way to grow bottom lines (sadly the biggest victims will be Main Street which has already suffered mightily).