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Wall Street Strategies has been providing independent stock market research since 1991 to individual, retail and institutional clients through a balanced approach to investing and trading. Charles Payne, our founder and chief analyst, is routinely sought after for his stock market, political,... More
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  • TOO LATE TO BE A CONTENDER? - By Charles Payne 0 comments
    Sep 4, 2013 10:59 AM | about stocks: FB, LNKD, AAPL, CIEN

    Everyone is dissatisfied, which means in this case this is an equal opportunity country, but it also means in-fighting and indecision will continue to be the order of the day. Few entities are immune as even those with supposed highly favored status at the highest office in the land are finding themselves on the outside looking in.

    That's why the news that longshoremen are leaving the AFL-CIO is beyond shocking. These are committed workers for the cause that have lost respect for so-called leaders.

    Every American has been lied to by the administration, especially when it comes to taxes. There have been several increases that have impacted every single person working for a living.

    Still, unions poured millions into both presidential elections, even borrowing money for the 2012 reelection effort. Promises were made behind closed doors and in public. I heard in not so many words a promise to excuse unions permanently from the so-called Cadillac tax. As it turns out, they're not getting a free pass. Moreover, immigration policy being drafted by the White House seems to favor the intellectual in Silicon Valley but not guys on the docks ... guys that fought the good fight for so many years.

    So, the Longshoremen are telling Richard Trumpka the Federation has done a "great disservice to the labor movement and all working people by going along to get along." Many constituents of the White House are expected to simply fall in line, accepting their fate as the result of a republican plot or bad luck even when it's obviously not. Some are too proud, others blinded by racial or party pride. Longshoremen snapped out of it before it was too late. Idol worship is one thing, losing most favored is another, but discovering you were never favored in the first place is a punch to the gut.

    Charlie: Look, kid, I - how much you weigh, son? When you weighed one hundred and sixty-eight pounds you were beautiful. You coulda been another Billy Conn, and that skunk we got you for a manager, he brought you along too fast.

    Terry: It wasn't him, Charley, it was you. Remember that night in the Garden you came down to my dressing room and you said, "Kid, this ain't your night. We're going for the price on Wilson." You remember that? "This ain't your night"! My night! I coulda taken Wilson apart! So what happens? He gets the title shot outdoors on the ballpark and what do I get? A one-way ticket to Palooka-ville! You was my brother, Charley, you shoulda looked out for me a little bit. You shoulda taken care of me just a little bit so I wouldn't have to take them dives for the short-end money.

    Charlie: Oh I had some bets down for you. You saw some money.

    Terry: You don't understand. I coulda had class. I coulda been a contender. I coulda been somebody, instead of a bum, which is what I am, let's face it. It was you, Charley.

    As we approach the jobs report on Friday and potentially the first in many steps by the Federal Reserve to remove the punch bowl it's a great time to reflect on what this economy could've been. Despite mountains of money from the Fed, our economy has only muddled along with even the bright spots coming with glaring asterisks (lots of subprime auto loans and lots of big money, not Main Street, in housing recovery). The fact is the Fed's work hasn't had a lot of impact on regular people and the hype about its impact on the stock market is exceedingly overdone.

    Cheap Dollar Never Cheap Enough

    The dollar never got cheap enough internationally to make much of a difference in trade or bring home enough manufacturing work. In fact any jobs coming back to America stem mostly from costs escalating in other nations. As for impacting corporate profits there are two things to understand.

    A) Most analysts crunch numbers in constant currency
    B) The dollar hasn't helped especially with faster growing economies

    (click to enlarge)

    It's true borrowing costs for corporations have been embarrassingly low and many companies have taken advantage but that doesn't sway the market which is benefiting most from smarter execution and wider spread global prosperity.

    Class Act

    LinkedIn was criticized when its shares doubled in the first day of trading for leaving money on the table. Ironically, many market experts at that time said the stock was overvalued. Many felt Facebook FB did it right by taking every single nickel possible from the public, which thought it could share in the company's meteoric growth. If they held on right now, those dupes would be breaking even. In the meantime LNKD is up more than 100% from its closing price on the day of the offering, and now the company is raising a billion dollars, selling 4.2 million shares (three days of trading volume) and will still have 90% of its shares outstanding on the books.

    Management didn't have to give investors the shaft. Moreover, they say funds are being raised to make acquisitions and investments, which mean they view their shares with more esteem than cash - that's a most bullish statement.

    Syria

    Attacking Syria will not impact the personal lives of anyone on the planet outside of Syria, so its fundamental impact on the economy is limited. I think yesterday the Street misinterpreted the fading rally as fear over war increased. When John Boehner came on board with a limited strike on Syria, it hinted at a sort of sycophantic relationship with the White House on the eve of two major battles. If the Speaker isn't going to play hard ball on each situation, then we could be looking at a blank check for President Obama, more debt, and less fiscal restraint.

    Today's Session

    NASDAQ was strong yesterday and should set the pace out of the gate this morning led by Apple AAPL, where rumors swirl about a deal with China Mobile or the new Apple TV. Earnings from Ciena CIEN are also helping as technology continues to gather momentum.

    https://www.wstreet.com/user/register.asp?source=3

    Stocks: FB, LNKD, AAPL, CIEN
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