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Wall Street Strategies has been providing independent stock market research since 1991 to individual, retail and institutional clients through a balanced approach to investing and trading. Charles Payne, our founder and chief analyst, is routinely sought after for his stock market, political,... More
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  • Bad Luck, Bad Logic And Ultimate Cures By Charles Payne 0 comments
    Jun 18, 2012 9:13 AM

    Cures:

    Spit through rungs three times.
    Cross fingers until dog is seen.
    Walk backward along route of entrance and make a wish
    Spit on your shoe but don't look at your shoe until the spit has dried

    According to historians, walking under a ladder was considered bad luck in ancient Egypt and latter adopted by Christians that saw the sign of Trinity. To this day many people believe walking under a ladder to be bad luck. Heck, I try to avoid walking under ladders. The funny thing is while the superstition has lasted for eons, possible ways to reverse the onset of bad luck aren't widely known. This speaks to a few things about people, including the fact that we inherently understand risk but have little clue or will to affect a reversal of behavior that puts us in a bind. This is why the drama in Greece is so tantalizing.

    This is a country where the people not only walked under ladders of logic but did so singing and dancing. The cradle of birth for math, logic, and science, for a few decades now, Greece has been the graveyard of those disciplines. You can't get fourteen months of pay for twelve months of work, you can't raise taxes unfairly and not expect cheating, and you cannot put life and success and effort in park or neutral and expect to thrive. People retiring at 50 because they work with hair spray means someone else has to work a long time to fund that lavish perk of life. It's just not logical; you could have the Greece of the past few decades and not expect to slip in wealth and status.

    Return of Logic

    So, in the end the people of Greece picked logic over rhetoric. While there is nothing better than controlling your own destiny, in this case it would have meant a decade of pain-not a reasonable choice when a few months of such pain feels like an eternity.

    "Victory for all Europe"- Antonis Samaras (New Democracy)

    Victory for New Democracy means victory for Germany and victory for those that dream of a united Europe. But now the tough part begins. There has to be a coalition government in Greece and even though the pro-Euro, pro-bailout party won the most votes, it still wants to redo the deal. In other, words there will continue to be pressure for easier austerity and more cash. This means Greece will expect money-printing and more debt forgiveness.
    Greece is looking to be reborn and hit the ground running. Bailouts are always temporary and the real answer lies in Greece's storied past.

    Cure:

    "Work is no disgrace: it is idleness which is a disgrace, But if you work, the idle will soon envy you as you grow rich, from fame and renown attend on wealth. And whatever be your lot, work is best for you, if you turn your misguided mind away from other men's property to your work and attend to your livelihood as I bid you. An evil shame is the needy man's companion, shame which both greatly harms and prospers men: shame is with poverty, but confidence with wealth."-Hesiod (considered the first economist) in letter to his slothful brother Perses

    It wasn't bad luck that got Greece to this moment in time. But there is a wonderful cautionary tale for Americans willing to go down this path and those leaders that actually insist on going down it at top speed. Like walking under ladders, we seem to make the simple mistakes even knowing the consequence, but few understand the cures to unwinding those mistakes. America can't print its way out of disaster or a trillion dollar annual interest expense that's right around the corner.

    Superstition will not sink the nation, but super spending will.

    Next Move

    There are expectations of more news on Spain and greater aid, speculation our Fed will lower interest rates and belief Germany will bend more on the notion of Euro Bonds.

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