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I have been in the stock market since 1989. I have been trading and investing on my own since then. I have established a website for people that are serious traders and investors. We have a bulltetin board that we use for information and not for jibbersih on how your stock is going to the moon... More
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  • They "Mystery of Biotechs Revealed" 1 comment
    Jan 23, 2011 6:20 PM

    Let me boar you with some trading facts you may appreciate (if not already caught) and not appreciate if stung. However all of us have to learn at some point... I think? :)

    First of all I can say I have never been caught, that was shere luck the first time, and total  talent after that :) . Once I realized there was a sequence to all biotechs that should be considered I have never varied from it. I posted the list at the bottom of this post in response to someone who got caught in bios. So here is what you should watch for with virtually all biotechs.

    Here is ONCY Nasdaq I am missing pre 2001 data but trust me this is how DNDN, ONCY (ONC-Toronto), RVX, HGSI all went its the way they all work, so when a Biotech takes off load up, then always TRAILS TOP anything above $20 then follow the charts below.

    ONCY and ONC-Toronto are the same

    ONCY - ONC-Toronto

    RVX in Toronto

    RVX in Toronto

    How about HGSI on Nasdaq?

    HGSI- Nasdaq

    TRY DNDN go back to the point where it was "first discovered".

     Here are the guidelines I follow for all Biotechs.
    1) If Preclinical and it pops hard because a rat, mouse, monkey is cured trade it with a vengence. There is not a mouse in the world that cannot be cured of every human illness. Its true. They all have been cured of brain cancer, brain tumors, bad cholestral, lupis, diabetes etc etc etc. We have spent Trillions curing rats and mice, its gotta be our turn sometime :) So if someone cures a rat (monkey) and they run the stock, Cost average down immediately. It is the time of greatest money made with absolutely no proof it works.
    2) Assume the company that just did preclinical isn't even remotely ready for a PH1 because its not.
    3) Also assume that no one with a brain will lend them money just because the monkey, rat or mouse is cured, unless they are able to short well in advance of a PP and basically go in for free
    4) Always assume they are late at anything they do, and if they send out an News Release saying everything is on schedule sell the pop. Because they are never on schedule.
    5) Always sell the pop on the start of a trial, because they have not recruited anyone yet. So to find suitable people for the trial and setup the trial facility takes months and months. Its like adrilling company "starting the summer drill program". They can make this announcement and they may have just contracted the rig and the rig is not even due on site for a month.
    6) Always play a PH1 result because 99.9% underdose and there are only checking to see if the drug can be tolerated. Its always succesful so its a money maker, then sell and short after the pop wears off because now you have a long wait till a PH2 can be coordinated on the PH1 data.
    7) Play the rumors, watch the other boards. If they have allot of people that continually say "good things coming". Heard Pfizer interested. Don't believe it, play it because even if Pfizer is interested the rumor will die when the stock dies.
    8) Try to have your cost at zero by the time the real trial begins. Take out a 10 year chart on ONC, RVX, DNDN and HGSI copy them onto a paper and hold any two up to a light they are literally carbon copies. So learn to play Biotechs from the similarity of the chart. First pop is always the biggest and always tends to die in the high $20s, second pop is always from around $13 and goes to just over $20, then its starts the death spiral.
    9) Stay away from bulletinboards that get your juices flowing. Do not believe people that are "loading up", backing up the truck" got a friend thats running the trial and is saying WOW". People that say things like just added another 20,000 shares are in 99% of the cases on the offer and need a bid to unload their stock
    10) Most importantly if RVX is worth $100 which its not, why do you need to have 10,000 shares? Why not 2,000? I tell you why "GREED". Everyone on the boards call for $100 are already doing the math... 10K times $100 man I'm gonna be rich!!!! But none say 10K times $1.00 fark!!! I could lose my shirt on this $7.00 stock. They always look up and never down. Thats why we use those boards they tell us when the next run is going to occur. You can watch the sentiment go from "toss the bum CEO" too "we should turn down any offer below $90"
    11) Buy what you can afford do not over expose yourself unless its the first run, then go all in, and get out as soon as your cost is at a low low low level.
    12) Always remember everyone you are talking to on a bulletinboard has a vested interest in seeing the stock rise. Also note that anyone that says its a good short or thinks its going to fall is labelled a "bashing shorter". To become part of the Bulletin Board incrowd you must support the theory you and your cyberfriends will be rich!! 
    Sometimes shorts know exactly what they are talking about and, not all people selling are bashers. So stay open minded. Thats not easy, I was closed minded about AMZ.TO recently because of the person who brought it to the board. We called the pull perfectly (.97c after it hit $3.00) but I was sure it was the other board that was running the stock, so never revisited my opinion. Big mistake ALWAYS revisit what you think and question yourself as to why you think it? Are you a bull because all the boards are bully or because you wanna be rich or, you really know the facts.

     good luck

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  • Jkj193741
    , contributor
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    Chief, check out the new data from Cleveland clinic and others from ACA14, no.1259:
    ACA14 DR WONG ET AL
    er on Progression of Coronary Atherosclerosis and Cardiovascular Events in Patients with Elevated Inflammatory Markers
    Itinerary
    March 31, 2014, 9:45 - 10:30 AM --
    Participants
    Rishi Puri, Yu Kataoka, Kathy Wolski, Allan Gordon, Jan Johansson, Norman Wong, Steven Nissen, Stephen Nicholls, Cleveland Clinic, Cleveland, OH, USA, South Australian Health & Medical Research Institute, Adelaide, Australia
    Abstract
    Introduction: Upregulating endogenous apolipoprotein A-I (apoA-I) is considered an attractive means of targeting HDL function. The effect of this strategy in patients stratified to baseline degrees of systemic inflammation has not been investigated.
    Methods: 323 patients with coronary disease and low HDL-C levels were randomized to treatment with the apoA-I inducer, RVX-208 100 mg twice daily or placebo for 26 weeks. Serial coronary intravascular ultrasound was performed to evaluate the impact on atheroma progression. The effects on disease progression and major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE: death, myocardial infarction, stroke, coronary revascularization, hospitalization for unstable angina or heart failure) were evaluated in patients with baseline C-reactive protein (CRP) levels < than vs. ≥ than 2 mg/L.
    Results: Increases in apoA-I by 12.8% (P<0.001) and HDL-C by 11.1% (P<0.001) compared with baseline were observed in the RVX-208 group. RVX-208 was associated with a reduction in percent atheroma volume (PAV) and total atheroma volume (TAV) in patients with CRP ≥ 2mg/dL. Such benefits were not observed with RVX-208 in patients with CRP <2mg/dL. A lower MACE rate was observed in RVX-208-treated patients (6.9 vs. 18.9%, P=0.02) in patients with CRP ≥2mg/dL (Table).
    Conclusion: Potentially more favorable effects of the apoA-I inducer, RVX-208, on coronary disease progression and MACE were observed in patients with higher levels of systemic inflammation.
    Parameter CRP <2 mg/L CRP >2 mg/L
    Placebo
    (n=27) RVX-208 (n=111) P Value Placebo
    (n=53) RVX-208 (n=130) P Value
    PAV (%)
    Median (IQR) 0.6 (-1.5, 1.4) 0 (-1.6, 1.4) 0.72 -0.5 (-2.0, 0.8) -0.7 (-2.0, 1.2) 0.98
    P=0.81* P=0.78* P=0.08* P=0.04*
    TAV (mm3)
    Median (IQR) -3.8 (-9.8, 5.3) 0.8 (-11.9, 7.1) 0.71 -3.1 (-12.4, 2.8) -5.7 (-18.1, 4.4) 0.45
    P=0.30* P=0.39* P=0.02* P<0.001*
    MACE (%) 3.7 8.1 18.9 6.9 0.02

     

    *denotes within-grp P-value
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    Read more at http://bit.ly/1hghYrf
    27 Mar 2014, 10:04 PM Reply Like
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