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A wall street advisor, deflationist, and technician.
  • Shades of the Summer of 2008 0 comments
    Oct 8, 2010 10:54 PM

    There is an eerie similarity starting to brew in the last few weeks, to the fateful summer of 2008.  I have no slick charts to present, just some thoughts out loud.
    It seems the flight into commodities, and Emerging Market equities the past several weeks resembles the massive oil run-up and same emerging market hot money flows that accelerated in the summer of 2008, Mar-July. This time Gold is replacing oil as the commodity spec of choice, copper is back near $ 4.00 and the dollar is in free fall.  All these currency moves almost parallel the moves in 2008, but the real clincher for me is seeing the Euro back to 140.  In 2008 the Euro pushed to 160, and then in July the ECB raised rates just one more time while the Fed was in full easing mode.  Everyone thought the Europeans were crazy to raise rates right in the midst of a clear slow down, and now the Europeans are embracing austerity while the US threatens QE2, It's all too familiar, so what will break next?

    My guess is one of the PIGS, since they have been the consistent worry, and have the greatest impact on global concern.  But the stage is set, European policy is out of wack with reality and  US QE2 policy.  Commodities are scaring the world,  US hot money is running rampant into the Emerging Markets, and nearly every finance minister is speaking out about the cruelty of the falling dollar.

    So if my analysis is on target we should see something financial blow up soon, as the pressures become unbearable and we will revert back to higher dollar, weaker Emerging Markets, as the global growth is destroyed, and commodities crash, once again.  Last time, copper went from $ 4.00 to 1.30 in about 3 months, Gold I suspect could return below 900, before the authorities calm everything down.  I think it will be much more difficult this time.

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