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Clinical Diagnostic Companies:Financial Metrics 2014 Q1Results-Best Picks

|Includes:EXACT Sciences Corporation (EXAS), HOLX, NEOG, NSTG

Potential upside in EXAS, NSTG and NEOG: all are current Rayno Dx and Tools picks.

A Few Clinical Diagnostic Stocks Were Hit By A Revenue Miss

  • With "momentum trading" days over for now, revenue growth is the focus.
  • Companies with disappointing Q1 revenues: Abaxis (NASDAQ:ABAX), Alere (NYSE:ALR), Response Genetics (NASDAQ:RGDX) and Quidel (NASDAQ:QDEL). Q2 recovery will be key.
  • Many of these stocks are losers YTD after a great year in 2013; stocks peaked in Feb/March.
  • Rayno Dx and Tools winners YTD: Illumina (NASDAQ:ILMN), Sequenom (NASDAQ:SQNM), Hologic (NASDAQ:HOLX), Exact Sciences (NASDAQ:EXAS) and ThermoFisher (NYSE:TMO).
  • GenProbe acquisition by Hologic (HOLX) is gold standard for valuation at P/S of 5.
  • Look for traction with ExactSci (EXAS), NanoString Tech (NASDAQ:NSTG) and Neogen (NASDAQ:NEOG) with upgrade support from bankers.
  • Illumina (ILMN) and Pacific Bio (NASDAQ:PACB) are sequencing plays but are not in analysis below.

Clinical Diagnostics and Tools Stocks

Company Ticker Price Rev RevQ4 Rev Price 2014 P/S PE PEG P/B Market  
    My'11 2012 2013 2013 31-May RevEst         Cap  
GenProbe* GPRO 80 642 143 $-000- sold 66 576 5 64 1.9 700 $B  
                           
Abaxis ABAX 28 179 40.8 176.4 41 198 4.7 67 2.3 4.8 0.937  
Alere ALR 36 2,710 772 3,030 35.8 3,040 1.2 n/a n/a 2 3.58  
Cepheid CPHD 31 331 113.3 401.3 45 459.7 6.8 n/a n/a 8.8 3.14  
ExactSci EXAS   4.15 1 4.1 13.48 11.6 328 n/a n/a 7.4 1.12  
GenMark Dx GNMK         11 25 16 n/a n/a 4.4 0.458  
GenomHlth GHDX 26 236 68.8 259.2 26 282 2.9 n/a n/a 5.8 0.812  
Hologic HOLX   2,160 612.4 2,490 24.4 2,480 2.4 n/a n/a 3.4 6.75  
Immucor** BLUD 20 345 83.3   sold 27 n/a 5.5 21 2.2 n/a n/a  
Luminex LMNX 20 203 55.2 213.4 17 231 3.4 46 1.2 2.5 0.722  
Meridian VIVO 23 179 44.8 188.7 20.4 193.6 4.2 23 1.9 5.4 0.846  
NanostringT NSTG New   10.1 $31.50 14.9 47.9 6.3 n/a n/a 7 0.269  
Nanosphere NSPH     3.4 10 1.35 19 9.4 n/a n/a 3 0.136  
Neogen NEOG 41 194 59.6 225 37.8 245.7 6.9 50 2.7 4.8 1.39  
Orasure OSUR   89.4 28.8 98.9 6.32 103.6 3.5 n/a n/a 2.3 352.9  
Qiagen QGEN 20 1,250 363 1,310 23 1,370 3.9 79 9.4 2 5.35  
Quidel QDEL 15 156 50.2 175.4 22.7 175.7 5 54 n/a 3.4 776.8  
Resp Genet RGDX 2 18.1       22.2 2 n/a n/a 16 0.04  
Sequenom SQNM   71.5 45.1 162.4 3.07 214 1.3 n/a n/a n/a 0.357  
SeraCare# SRLS 3.7 46.2 11   sold 4 43.5 1.8 36 n/a 40 n/a  
Techne TECH 81 312 84 330 87.8 357 9.4 29 2.3 4 3,250  
ThermoFish. TMO     3470 13,090 116.9 17 2.7 15 2.4 2.3 46,640  
TrinityBio TRIB New       24 110 4.9 59 2.9 3 0.54  
                           
** sold for $1.97B to TBG Capital #sold for $80M                
* sold for $3.7B to Hologic Names in BOLD are on focus list          
                           
                           
                           
Click to enlarge

Disclosure: I am long HOLX, PACB, TRIB.

Stocks: EXAS, HOLX, NEOG, NSTG