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Market Signs

ACWI, MSCI All Country World Index etf, i.e. global equities, right now is at a new recovery high, up a meager 0.2%.  Among this morning's gyrations:  a sharp further decline in VIX to new recovery lows; a decline in semi's (NYSEARCA:SMH) after failing to follow the market to a new high; the continued strength in shipping (NYSEARCA:SEA) on the back of China's strong trade data last night; and the sharp decline in natural gas (NYSEARCA:UNG).  There are less of the speculative moves from last week (e.g. in OIH, SLX, TAN). 

Obviously the big issue today is how the market will react to consensus strong earnings, starting this afternoon with AA.  The market trend is up, perhaps until it no longer reacts favorably to positive earnings surprises, and/or consensus starts to change on Bernanke's easy money.  Since the market low in March 2009, investors/traders have continually underestimated the former, because it was such a sharp recession followed by a very mediocre recovery, with very high unemployment.

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