Macrotrader65's  Instablog

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I have 20 years financial experience and out of those I have spent 15 as a trader.
  • ETF portfolio Aug. 1 st. 2011 0 comments
    Aug 1, 2011 7:57 AM
    I was stopped out of all my equity positions on the 27 th. So back in neutral and with no equity exposure. todays rally seems to go against the macro numbers, so on fundamentals it does not look like it will have legs to run far.

    While earnings are good, the macro economy is still lagging and it is just a question of time before it will impact earnings. The underlying selling presure from the boomers leaving the job market and selling their stocks to fund the retirement, should not be underestimated. I think it will be a long time before we again see extended trends of new highs.

    All bond indicies are now in bullish teritory. My entire portfolio is invested in bonds and gold. I will consider reducing exporsures to re-enter equity exposures if I see break-outs.

    On fundamentals there is no doubt that interest rates in the US and EU should be higher. If you assume there already is a risk premium in both rates, I will argue the "real" interest rates are close to Zero. My guess is you can take about 0.75 to 1,25% out of the rates if there was no default risk.

    The rally in silver and oil, was short term and I stopped out on those last week aswell. However gold is still strong and todays retreat of only 0.5% is really a strong signal of further rally. However I have set a higher stop to close which will lock in some needed profits.

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