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SurlyTrader is a portfolio manager at a large financial institution who specializes in trading derivatives. He has been in the financial services industry for over a decade and would like to share his experience and enthusiasm in the financial markets with those who have a natural curiosity and... More
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  • Evaporation Of Liquidity 0 comments
    Apr 23, 2013 10:26 PM | about stocks: DBA, SPY, VXX, VXZ

    It seems rather unfortunate that the hack of an AP twitter account can cause more of a disturbance in the market than an actual terrorist bombing in Boston. A 15+ point dive based upon hacked falsehoods:

    (click to enlarge)It seems unlikely that today's rally was a recovery and continuation of the rally that we have experienced since the middle of November. In fact, it seems likely that today's rally was more of a short-covering fueled bounce than a continuation of something "good":

    (click to enlarge)What is actually kind of entertaining in this market is the complete apathy in options and implied volatility. 10 Day realized volatility has ramped up to 20%+, but the VIX dropped to 13.48%. I might be Naive, but I have found that the best indication of future volatility is recent volatility…

    (click to enlarge)

    I am not biting. Euro was down today, gold is slanting negative once more, DBA (agriculture commodity ETF) was down about 1% today. Does not seem like a happy picture going into a temperamental season.

    Stocks: DBA, SPY, VXX, VXZ
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