Master Che's  Instablog

By the time you guys read this post it will probably be noon time

11/15/13

MARKET OVERVIEW & EXPECTATIONS:

7:15EST

Majority of my work is based on the long term price movement; although before one can call the long term (6-7 to 13 months); he must successfully be able to call the immediate term (3 to 11 days)

Since March, 2009; we've had 4 manipulation/intervention plays; one minor and three majors.

Minor:

from 2/10 to 5/10

Majors:

from 9/11 (1100 SPX) to 2/18/11

from 11/28/11 to 4/11/12

from 6/22/12 to 9/14/12

The first two majors are quite similar in time and range; therefore the OAV of these two patterns is at 1245 (SPX); therefore this current move down is attracted to 1245 and should reach this level providing the markets maintains an organic nature.

The 1100 price level is the manipulators red line; twice they initiated their plays at or quite near this level

Therefore the big question at hand is if the market maintains an organic nature; the answer to that question is determined by the crude.

None the less I'm basing my current analysis on an organic market until otherwise a manipulation pattern is confirmed.

talk is that the recent sell-off is based on the Fiscal cliff and Obamas proposed tax increases. Nothing could be further from the truth.

The truth of the matter is simply this:

Since 9/14/12 there has been no Manipulation/Intervention in the Equity markets aside from one recent failure

Going one step further

At point in the market (could be below 1349.25 (ESZ12) a trap door opens and boom we're in the low 1300's, but the stocks is different (worse), ever seen a herd of elephants try and get through a door at the same time. In other words a circuit breaker day (only exists for the downside, no such thing for the upside, naked selling (stocks) has no play in the matter, because the sellers already own the stock (longs)

How to trade it

I'm planning on shorting the DIA and the ES contracts but the ESH13 (March 2013) and the ESM13 (June) and I'll be shorting stocks and buying a ship load of out of the money puts on the stocks and ETF's.

I'll be updating on an intra-day basis (today) only on the ES contract. I already have the stock puts strike price on the stocks. Primarily the DJ-30 stocks and a few others.

Only in the event the Crash window closes do I change this strategy.