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ES: Closing Comments

10/13/11

Closing Comments:

First things first

I made a major blunder this morning

We had very strong support at 1185.00/25;

Gap trendline (currently support) from the 9/16 gap down to the 10/11 gap down, secondly we have support from the floating upper wall (10/7 pattern to yesterday’s new pattern.

Yesterday we developed a top pattern

Pointing down

Equalizer: 1198.50

Down Price Target: 1145.00

Up Price Target: 1251.25

Often this pattern is the early stage of a topping formation

Trading above 1251.25 cancels everything

The top pattern formation is a series of further developing top patterns;

The initial stage is another 75 hours; often we trade above the patterns high (1216.00) without reaching the patterns up price target (1251.25)

Currently the key level (OAV) of the pattern is at 1178.00

Key support is at 1185.00/1185.25

Generally within the next 75 hours we will develop another similar pattern; generally larger, then a third pattern; basically this is a complex running C/T (Reversal patterns) then the top formation is in place and down we go.

 

Immediate term: (36 hours)

1202.00 is the new OAV (BB – Bull/Bear Divider)

the floating OAV is at 1202.75 (ascending 0.25pts every 6 hours)

providing we stay below the OAV and the floating OAV the immediate move is down to 1177.00

We must reach 1182.75 otherwise we trade above 1216.00 (1226.00)

Trading above the OAV takes us up to 1235.50

1197.25 is the Key pivot for either 1177.00 or 1235.50

1181.25 is support below 1185.00

I’m marginally biased to the downside, only because we failed to trade above the immediate term OAV, once above it; my sentiment becomes 100% bullish; not taking out (today) 1185.00 certainly reduces my bearish sentiment; an immediate move up to 1226.00 on the overnight session would not surprise me. In other words we must take out 1185.00 for me to become 100% bearish for the immediate term.

 

 

The Big Picture: (1 to 3 weeks)

1166.75 is the BB