Holly Thompson's  Instablog

Holly Thompson
Send Message
Holly E. Thompson founded Thompson Wealth Management to help clients reach their life goals by providing objective financial guidance. TWM is a private, independently owned investment and wealth management firm serving individuals in the Gulf Coast area whose approach allows clients to maintain... More
My company:
Thompson Wealth Management
  • TWM Today: Wall Street 0 comments
    Jun 1, 2011 1:16 PM | about stocks: YNDX, LNKD, RENN, BIDU, LFT
    GM May U.S. Vehicle Sales Slip On Lower Fleet Volume ~ General Motors Co. (GM.N) on Wednesday reported a 9% rise in retail sales in May from a year earlier, but total sales including bulk fleet purchases fell 1%.

    GM sold 221,192 vehicles in the month, down from 223,822 in May 2010 when results included four brands the company no longer sells.

    U.S. auto sales figures offer one of the first snapshots of consumer demand in May. The rest of the automakers are scheduled to report their May sales later on Wednesday.

    Economists polled by Reuters projected the industrywide annualized sales rate would be around 12.6 million in May, 8.6% higher than in May 2010.

    But if these forecasts prove true, this will be the first time the annualized sales rate has dropped below 13 million since February. The May sales numbers come as analysts are raising concerns about a slowdown in the broader economy. (Reuters)

    Obama Haggles With Republicans Over Cuts ~ House Republicans emerged from a White House meeting with President Obama indicating they broke no new ground in negotiations to raise the nation’s debt ceiling in exchange for reductions in spending.

    Republican leaders including House Speaker John Boehner said the private session in the East Room focused on the impact of the government’s debt on the economy and jobs.

    “‘If we’re going to get serious about creating jobs in America we’ve got to reduce some of the uncertainty,” Boehner said outside the White House. “Some of that uncertainty is caused by the giant debt that is facing our country.”

    Republicans are holding to their demand that spending cuts exceed the needed increase in the government’s legal debt limit, he said. The meeting followed the House’s 97-318 vote yesterday defeating a measure that would have raised the $14.3 trillion debt limit by $2.4 trillion without spending reductions.

    Negotiations over increasing the debt ceiling as part of a package of spending cuts began May 5, led by Vice President Joe Biden. There have been four meetings between the vice president and six congressional leaders. Biden has said progress is being made, and that negotiators are trying to find savings of $1 trillion over 10 years. (Bloomberg)

    Weak Economy Pushing Rates Lower Than Fed Easing ~ Bad news on the economic front is ironically pushing interest rates lower than the Fed's quantitative easing program managed to.

    The yield on the 10-year Wednesday slid under 3% on the latest disappointing reports on jobs and manufacturing. The Fed's controversial quantitative easing program ends at the end of the month, and in theory was to keep rates low and force investors into riskier investments as the Fed scooped up $600 billion in Treasury securities.


    But a series of negative economic reports and worries about sovereign debt in Europe have driven investors into U.S. Treasurys, even as the Congressional debt ceiling debate creates queasiness about future U.S. funding of the unwieldy federal deficit.

    The 10-year yield was last at 3% in December 2010, just about a month into the Fed's asset purchase program. It has slid to a low of 2.34% in October, just before the Fed began the extraordinary easing program in November.

    "It's psychologically significant. It's not technically significant. There are more critical levels here. However, psychologically, it's going to get noted. From a purely technical level more important was the 200-day moving average at about 3.045. That was also the 50% retracement of the range since the pre-QE2 low in yields. It's notable," said David Ader, chief Treasury Strategist at CRT Capital.

    "Now as we sort of get to the end of this game, the Fed (bond purchases) has taken so much paper out of the market it's created liquidity issues" as buyers rush into the bond market, said Ader. "You can argue that finally QE2 is helping."  (NASDAQ:CNBC)

    Investor Hunger for Foreign Tech Stocks Overrides Risk
    ~ It doesn’t hurt to be known as the Google of Russia.

    Shares of Yandex, the Russian search engine company, shot up more than 55% in their Nasdaq market debut last week. The stock’s rise illustrates investors’ voracious appetite for emerging-market investments and Internet initial public offerings. But Yandex is also a sign of another trend: investors are willing to ignore the special risks associated with foreign Internet companies in their hunger for riches.

    Yandex raised $1.3 billion in an I.P.O that valued the company at about $11 billion. This is a heady number for a company that operates only in Russia, Europe’s second-largest internet market, and has limited prospects outside that country. Yandex has about 65 percent of the Russian search market, but Google lurks there as well and has 22 percent of the market.  Mail.ru, Russia’s biggest Internet company, is another potential competitor.

    Still, Yandex’s valuation is not as bubbly as other tech companies’. The Russian company is valued at about 23x 2010 revenue of about $440 million. Compare this with LinkedIn, which is valued at 35x revenue and has a market cap of about $8.5 billion.

    Yandex is even conservatively valued compared with another foreign tech company, Renren. Called the Facebook of China, Renren made its debut in early May on the New York Stock Exchange, raising about $855 million. Renren’s stock is trading at about $13 a share, a bit below its initial offering price of $14 a share.

    At this price, Renren is valued at $5 billion, a high valuation for a company with 2010 revenue of only $76.5 million and operating income of $17.3 million. Renren, valued at 65 times revenue, only has about 20 million to 30 million users a month and is far from China’s dominant Internet player. Competition also looms for Renren with rumors circulating of a partnership between Baidu and Facebook.

    Yet the danger is not only that these companies may be part of a bubble, but that they have risks particular to foreign companies.

    Take Renren. It is not even technically a Chinese company. Instead, it is incorporated in the Cayman Islands. This island location is in part because foreign ownership of Chinese companies is limited by the Chinese government. Because of these legal restrictions, buyers of Renren stock may be startled to know that Renren does not even own its major subsidiary, the operator of its social networking site.

    Instead, the wife of Reren’s chief executive and founder owns 99% of the subsidiary, and Renren has only a contractual relationship with its primary business. Renren contends that this is effectively the same since it entitles Renren to operate the company and receive all of the economic benefits of the operation.

    This may be true, and such arrangements are not uncommon when Chinese companies list abroad. But this is not the same as full ownership. China does not have a strong rule of law, and enforcing contractual rights in courts can be quite difficult. Chinese regulators could interfere and unwind this contractual relationship, or Renren’s chief executive could decide to take advantage of this relationship.

    What if Renren’s chief executive and his wife were to divorce? With $5 billion at stake, people may not act in the most ethical manner. Yahoo can ably attest to these problems. It is in a fierce dispute with its Chinese partner, the Alibaba Group, a company Yahoo owns 43% of. Yahoo accuses Alibaba of illegally transferring Alibaba’s most important subsidiary, Alipay, using China’s murky and under-enforced laws to shield these actions.

    There are also questions of accounting fraud. The chairman of Renren’s audit committee, Derek Palaschuk, resigned in the weeks before Renren’s I.P.O. because of accusations of fraud at another Chinese company listed on the New York Stock Exchange, Longtop Financial Technologies, where he was the chief financial officer. Accounting fraud is a serious problem among Chinese companies, as Floyd Norris of The New York Times recently noted in writing about Longtop. Shares of Longtop are now worthless.

    If American shareholders are defrauded, their remedies are limited because any lawsuit would be required to be brought in China. The hapless owners of houses with Chinese drywall can tell you what a difficult barrier this creates.

    These problems are not limited to China and take form in other emerging markets. Yandex is incorporated in the Netherlands. This likely reflects the need for clear rules to govern the company, something lacking in China and Russia. And in Russia, the principal fear is not fraud, although it is certainly possible, but government interference or nationalization.

    Yandex specifically cites in its I.P.O. prospectus the risk involved with the coming Russian presidential election and states that Yandex may be subject “to aggressive application of contradictory or ambiguous laws or regulations, or to politically motivated actions.” In other words, the rule of law is anything but certain in Russia.

    Given these risks, I wonder why these technology I.P.O.’s are seeking to list in the United States over other countries. It may be that we have the most robust capital markets, and this is primary attraction. There is also a darker explanation. We also have investors and day traders who invest with the herd and a media that too often drives “enthusiastic” investing. There may be something about the American market that allows bubbles to build. Foreign internet companies are simply coming here to feed on the phenomenon.

    Even if this is too dark an explanation, investors should be put on notice that not all technology investments are the same. Foreign investments in particular carry much more risk, which American investors do not appear to appreciate. (NYTimes)

Back To Holly Thompson's Instablog HomePage »

Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

Comments (0)
Track new comments
Be the first to comment
Full index of posts »
Latest Followers


  • McDonald's $MCD reports Q4 earnings of $1.40/sh, $.01 better than estimate. Revs rose 2.0% yr/yr to $7.09 bln vs the $7.11 bln consensus.
    Jan 23, 2014
  • Norfolk Southern $NSC target raised to $110 from $98 at Cowen.
    Jan 23, 2014
  • Long hours & a fractious relationship with Pimco's founder prompted Mohamed El-Erian's resignation.http://cnb.cx/1dS6LNx
    Jan 23, 2014
More »

Latest Comments

Most Commented
Instablogs are Seeking Alpha's free blogging platform customized for finance, with instant set up and exposure to millions of readers interested in the financial markets. Publish your own instablog in minutes.