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Manuel Blay
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Investor and Trader As investor I'm deeply influenced by Dow Theory. I focus on the primary trend (1-2 years). My trading is short-term based (avg trade duration 4-5 days).
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Dow Theory Investment
  • Dow Theory Update For Nov 15: No Primary Bear Market Signal Yet  0 comments
    Nov 15, 2012 10:40 PM | about stocks: SPY, DIA, IYT, GLD, SLV, GDX, SIL
    Bearish day for precious metals too.

    Let's explore what the market has in store for us today.

    Stocks, again, closed down. The big news is that the Transports refused to break its 09/28/2012 lows. At least for one more day the primary bear market signal has been avoided.

    Today's volume was lower than yesterday's, which has bullish implications. However, as you can see on the chart below, I see too many red arrows (bearish volume days). So in spite of today's bullish volume, the overall pattern remains short term bearish.

     

     

    (click to enlarge)
    Volume is bearish short term

    As you may have noticed, I pay attention to volume action at pivot points. Does it belong to the Dow Theory? Or it is just a construct of normal technical analysis? The answer is that volume at pivots was found worthy of study by both by Rhea and Hamilton. Thus, Rhea wrote:

    "(…) the tendency is for volume to increase whenever new highs or new lows have been made in primary bull or bear markets, with such an increase frequently progressing until something like a climax indicates a temporary reversal of the movement".

    So, keeping an eye at volume at critical points is time well invested.

    As to gold and silver both closed down today. The primary trend remains bullish, and the secondary trend remains bearish.

    The gold and silver miners ETFs (SIL and GDX) both closed down today. Now, unambiguously, we can say are stuck in a secondary reaction. However, the primary trend remains bullish.

    Conclusion: My eyes continued glued to the Transports. Will it break tomorrow its 09/28/2012 lows? We will probably know tomorrow.

    Sincerely,

    The Dow Theorist

    Themes: Dow Theory Stocks: SPY, DIA, IYT, GLD, SLV, GDX, SIL
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