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Manuel Blay
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Investor and Trader As investor I'm deeply influenced by Dow Theory. I focus on the primary trend (1-2 years). My trading is short-term based (avg trade duration 4-5 days).
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Dow Theory Investment
  • Dow Theory Update For Nov 16: Primary Bear Market For Stocks Signaled Today  0 comments
    Nov 18, 2012 12:16 AM | about stocks: SPY, DIA, IYT, GLD, SLV, GDX, SIL
    Keep an eye on gold and silver

    Well, we finally got our primary bear market signal under Dow Theory. We got it by just some cents, but we got it after all.

    Today the Transports closed at 4891.27. The secondary reaction lows of the Transports of 09/28/2012 stood at 4892.62. So just by some cents the Transports closed below the relevant lows thereby signaling a primary bear market signal.

    Under Dow Theory, it is immaterial whether the relevant low is violated by just one cent or two hundred points, and hence, we have to declare that today the market has told us that the primary trend is bearish. Furthermore, those doubting the validity of this signal because it was just given by a penetration of some cents are well advised to read my Dow Theory special issue "Is the primary trend for stocks about to change?" which you can find here.

    If you go to that post, you will see that Schannep already signaled a bear market signal on 11/07/2012. While my Dow Theory flavor is slightly less aggressive than Schannep's, one thing is clear: I wouldn't argue too long with Schannep and his outstanding track record. Today even under my somewhat more conservative interpretation of the Dow Theory a primary bear market signal was signaled.

    Please note that I don't say that today the primary trend has turned bearish. The primary trend turned bearish when the last confirmed highs were made on 09/14/2012. Since that date, the stock market was unable to make higher confirmed highs. The Industrials made higher highs on 10/05/2012 but unconfirmed. Thus, all the price movement we experienced since 09/14/2012 is to be relabeled as the first primary swing of the new primary bear market.

    Today those investing along the primary trend should have gotten out of stocks or, at the very least, sell down to 50%. While we don't know what is in store for us, as the Dow Theory doesn't make the pretense of knowing the future, we do know that the odds favor the continuation of the bear market. Even if the market might reverse and shoot up in the weeks and months ahead, we must be disciplined and heed the signals given by the Dow Theory. Discipline is vital and to have discipline you have to understand the intricacies of the Dow Theory.

    I will post later today or tomorrow Saturday a special Dow Theory issue where I will further analyze the implications of this primary bear market signal. Please stay tuned.

    The Industrials and the SPY closed up for the day. However, their action under Dow Theory was not enough to dodge the bullet.

    Volume was higher today and being the SPY up today it has a bullish implication. However, the overall pattern of short term volume remains bearish.

    Gold and silver closed down today. By closing down they begin to approach dangerously the secondary reaction lows made on 11/02/2012 If such lows are violated, then gold and silver will have signaled a bear market of their own. Here you have an updated chart:

     

     

    (click to enlarge)
    If the red line is jointly violated a primary bear market signal for gold and silver will be flashed

    The gold and silver miners ETFs (GDX and SLV) both closed up today. Technically, nothing has changed.

    Sincerely,

    The Dow Theorist

    Themes: Dow Theory Stocks: SPY, DIA, IYT, GLD, SLV, GDX, SIL
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