Manuel Blay's  Instablog

Manuel Blay
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Trader and investor. My trading is short-term based (avg trade duration 4-5 days). As investor I'm deeply influenced by Dow Theory
My blog:
Dow Theory Investment
  • Dow Theory Update For Nov 21: Stocks Up. No Technical Changes  0 comments
    Nov 21, 2012 6:02 PM | about stocks: SPY, DIA, IYT, GLD, SLV, GDX, SIL
    Gold and silver still in primary trend

    Let's see what the Dow Theory has in store for us today. Today is going to be another short post on this blog. Now need to babble when there is scarcity of technical relevant events (at least as my eye can see).

    The three stock indices I monitor, the Industrials, Transports and SPY closed up today. In spite of today's advance, both the primary and secondary trend remain bearish.

    Volume was dramatically bearish today. As you can see in the chart below, volume contracted as the SPY moved up. Thus, we had another bearish volume day. You can see in the chart that the red arrows hold the upper hand. Furthermore, you can see that the rally that started four days ago off the lows has experienced declining volume. Certainly, volume is not confirming the new rally. Moreover, to make volume even more bearish, the last three pivots had bearish volume. So, even though, volume doesn't make trends but merely qualifies them, clearly volume is giving us a bearish picture. At least short term (1-2 weeks ahead).

     

     

    (click to enlarge)
    Volume is not confirming the rally that started on 11/16/2012

    Gold, silver and their respective ETFs (GDX, SIL) closed up today. Hitherto the entire precious metals' universe is dodging a primary bear market signal. All of them remain stuck in a secondary reaction, but the primary trend remains bullish.

    After last week's storm of Dow Theory relevant events, now we are enjoying the calm. Will it last very long? Market action will tell.

    Sincerely,

    The Dow Theorist

    Stocks: SPY, DIA, IYT, GLD, SLV, GDX, SIL
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