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Dow Theory Update For Dec 3: Stocks Under Secondary Reaction

|Includes:DIA, GDX, GLD, IYT, SIL, SLV, SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF (SPY)

Stocks down. Gold and silver up.

Let's analyze the markets under the prism of the Dow Theory.

The SPY, the Industrials and the Transports closed down today. The secondary trend has turned bullish, which means that the current rally now qualifies as a secondary reaction against the primary bearish trend. Since the lows of 11/15/2012 (11/16/2012) eleven trading days have elapsed. As you know, for a secondary reaction to exist, it is necessary to have a rally (in a bear market) or a pullback (in a bull market) of at least 10 days. A second requirement is that the movement against the primary trend should have an extent in at least two indices of at least 3%. Both requirements have been met. Stay tuned as soon I will post a special issue on this Dow Theory blog concerning the details of the current secondary reaction. It goes without saying that the primary trend of stocks remains bearish.

Today's volume was lower than yesterday's, since today was a down day, it has a bullish implication. Since the current rally started we have had only 3 volume bullish days. So overall the patter of volume is bearish.

As to gold and silver, both closed up today. The primary trend remains bullish and the secondary trend bearish.

SIL and GDX, the gold and silver miners ETFs, closed down today. Technically, nothing changed. The primary trend remains bullish, and the secondary trend remains bearish.


The Dow Theorist