Manuel Blay's  Instablog

Manuel Blay
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Trader and investor. My trading is short-term based (avg trade duration 4-5 days). As investor I'm deeply influenced by Dow Theory
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Dow Theory Investment
  • Dow Theory Update For Dec 4: Stocks Down. No Changes In Trends 0 comments
    Dec 4, 2012 4:55 PM | about stocks: SPY, DIA, IYT, GLD, SLV, GDX, SIL

    Gold and silver down.

    Let's get started with our Dow Theory commentary for today in this blog.

    The SPY and Industrials closed down today. The Transports closed up. Technically, nothing has been accomplished. The primary trend remains bearish, and the secondary trend remains bullish.

    Volume was higher than yesterday's, since the SPY closed down, I consider it a down day and hence lower prices confirmed by higher volume have a bearish connotation; again. As you can see in the chart below the red arrows dominate.

     

     

    (click to enlarge)
    Volume continues bearish. Red bearish arrows dominate

    Gold and silver closed down today. It is good to remember that now is the moment of truth for gold and silver. If they violate their 11/02/2012 secondary reaction lows, a new primary bear market will be signaled, if, conversely, they break their 10/04/2012 highs, the primary bear market will be reconfirmed and the secondary trend will be declared as bullish. In the meantime, we have to wait. Here you have an updated chart. The red lines may not be violated or else….The pink lines merely reflect the entry price and, thus, the distance between both lines is the profit that is likely to be locked in.

     

     

    (click to enlarge)
    If the red line is violated a new primary bear market will be signaled for gold and silver

    SIL and GDX closed up today. No technical changes. The primary trend remains up. The secondary trend remains bearish.

    Later, today, I'll post a special issue in this Dow Theory blog concerning the new bullish secondary reaction against the primary bullish trend in stocks.

    Sincerely,

    The Dow Theorist

    Stocks: SPY, DIA, IYT, GLD, SLV, GDX, SIL
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