Seeking Alpha

Manuel Blay's  Instablog

Manuel Blay
Send Message
Trader and investor. My trading is short-term based (avg trade duration 4-5 days). As investor I'm deeply influenced by Dow Theory
My blog:
Dow Theory Investment
  • Dow Theory Update For Feb 15: Precious Metals In Free Fall 0 comments
    Feb 15, 2013 5:01 PM | about stocks: SPY, DIA, IYT, GLD, SLV, GDX, SIL
    Primary bear market re-confirmed for GLD and SLV

    Let's get started with our daily Dow Theory commentary in this blog.

    The "Pragmatic Capitalism" blog posted yesterday an interesting article concerning historical drawdowns for stocks and bonds. The figures displayed in Pragmatic Capitalism should make any serious investor think it twice before committing one's life savings to buy and hold.

    If one is serious about protecting wealth ("return OF investment"), one should heed technical analysis in order to be endowed with some kind of market timing device.

    Readers of this Dow Theory blog know that I have already discussed this issue in my posts "How often does the Dow Theory outperform buy and hold?" and "Dow Theory's performance during the secular 1966-1981 bear market," which you can find here and here.

    The conclusión of such posts is clear: The Dow Theory (as, IMHO, one of the best technical analysis devices) excels at protecting the investor from what I call "killer draw downs."

    Furthermore, such significant risk reduction is achieved while increasing 2% annual performance versus buy and hope, sorry, hold.

    Today the SPY and Transports closed down. The Industrials closed up. The primary and secondary trend remains bullish.

    Today's volume was higher than yesterday's. Since globally it was a down day, it has a bearish implication.

    GLD (gold) and SLV (silver) displayed abject weakness again. SLV made a lower low, as it violated the lows hitherto made since the primary bear market got started. By making a lower low, SLV has confirmed the lower low made by GLD yesterday. Under Dow Theory, the primary bear market has been reconfirmed. The primary and secondary trend remains bearish. Here you have an updated chart showing recent price action. the read line superimposed on SLV is the SLV/GLD ratio, which as you can see denotes stronger gold:

     

     

    (click to enlarge)
    Primary bear market in GLD and SLV reconfirmed

    The gold and silver miners ETFs (GDX and SIL) jointly made lower lows for the move. So, the primary bear market in both ETFs has been reconfirmed. Furthermore, if you observe the charts, you will see that all price action has been occurring below the level that defined the primary bear market signal (horizontal pink lines). Not a good omen. The primary and secondary trend remains bearish. Here you have an updated chart.

     

     

    (click to enlarge)
    SIL and GDX also reconfirmed primary bear market

    So much bearishness among precious metals makes me wonder whether we are witnessing a selling climax? Are we nearing a bottom? If so, soon we will know as bullish patterns will emerge from the charts. Until then, I'll wait for the verdict of the markets.

    Sincerely,

    The Dow Theorist

    Themes: Dow Theory Stocks: SPY, DIA, IYT, GLD, SLV, GDX, SIL
Back To Manuel Blay's Instablog HomePage »

Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

Comments (0)
Track new comments
Be the first to comment
Full index of posts »
Latest Followers

StockTalks

More »

Latest Comments


Posts by Themes
Instablogs are Seeking Alpha's free blogging platform customized for finance, with instant set up and exposure to millions of readers interested in the financial markets. Publish your own instablog in minutes.