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Manuel Blay
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Investor and Trader As investor I'm deeply influenced by Dow Theory. I focus on the primary trend (1-2 years). My trading is short-term based (avg trade duration 4-5 days).
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Dow Theory Investment
  • Dow Theory Update For March 4: Transports Confirm Higher High Of Industrials  0 comments
    Mar 4, 2013 4:41 PM | about stocks: SPY, DIA, IYT, GLD, SLV, GDX, SIL

    Gold and silver miners make new lows.

    Let's get started with our Dow Theory commentary for today.

    Special issue concerning Dow Theory performance and duration of investments made according to the Dow Theory.

    Last Saturday, March 2, I posted a new study concerning the average duration of the investments made according to the "classical/Rhea" Dow Theory and the kind of profits (and sometimes losses) we can expect from them. It is must-read for any investor with a real liking for the Dow Theory. Furthermore, this post will open a new sage of articles whereby I will further analyze the Dow Theory. Until now, my studies focused on the year-end performance (as you can find here and here). The new articles will dissect each particular signal. As far as I know no such study has been published elsewhere.

    Special note on gold

    GLD lost last Friday (March 1) 0.610 tonnes of gold (0.048%). Thus, inventories have been declining for nine days in a row. Accordingly, inventories have declined from 1322.97 tons to 1253.88 tonnes, that is 69.09 tonnes or 5.22%.

    If my readings of the GLD inventory spreadsheet are correct never before was such an uninterrupted spell of "pukes."

    Stocks

    The SPY, Industrials and Transports closed up. The Industrials are very near to their all-time highs. Both the Transports and the Industrials have bettered their previous 02/19/2013 high, which confirms the primary trend as bullish. The primary and secondary trend of the markets is bullish.

    Today's volume was lower than Friday's. Since it was an up day, it has a bearish connotation as higher prices were met by receding volume. Even though the Industrials and Transports made higher highs (which is bullish) the pattern of volume is bearish short term, as explained here, which suggests that a secondary reaction might develop soon.

    Gold and silver

    SLV and GLD closed down. The primary and secondary trend remains bearish.

    As to the miners ETFs, GDX and SIL closed down and made a lower low. The primary and secondary trend remains bearish.

    Sincerely,

    The Dow Theorist

    Themes: Dow Theory Stocks: SPY, DIA, IYT, GLD, SLV, GDX, SIL
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