Manuel Blay's  Instablog

Manuel Blay
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Trader and investor. My trading is short-term based (avg trade duration 4-5 days). As investor I'm deeply influenced by Dow Theory
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Dow Theory Investment
  • Dow Theory Update For April 4: Stocks Rebound On Bearish Volume 0 comments
    Apr 4, 2013 4:42 PM | about stocks: SPY, DIA, IYT, GLD, SLV, GDX, SIL

    Trends remain unchanged

    Jon Strebler and the Dow Theory Letters

    As I reported here Jon Strebler joined forces with Richard Russell, of the Dow Theory Letters some weeks ago.

    My preliminary take on him (positive) has been confirmed as new "Dow Theory Letters" get published.

    I like Strebler's humble and no-nonsense approach. His latest message to investors is that flirting from one investment strategy to the next is a sure recipe to the alms-house. Value investors should remain value investors and followers of the Dow Theory should remain Dow Theorists. As Strebler rightfully notes, buying a stock because it is good value and selling it because the Dow Theory has turned bearish can be devastating to one's wealth. As to his take of the current state of the stock market, he is bullish or, more exactly, his interpretation of the Dow Theory shows him the existence of a primary bull market.


    The SPY, Industrials and Transports closed up. The primary and secondary trend remains bullish as per the Dow Theory.

    Volume contracted today, which makes it a bearish volume day as advancing prices were not supported by expanding volume. As I wrote yesterday, the overall patter of volume is bearish and makes a secondary reaction more likely to occur.

    Gold and silver

    GLD and SLV closed strongly up. However, as one swallow does not make a summer, so one day "up" doesn't make a bullish trend, not even one of secondary import. Accordingly, the primary and secondary trend remains bearish.

    As to the gold and silver miners ETF, GDX and SIL, both closed strongly up. Accordingly, the primary and secondary trend remains bearish.


    The Dow Theorist

    Stocks: SPY, DIA, IYT, GLD, SLV, GDX, SIL
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