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Manuel Blay
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Trader and investor. My trading is short-term based (avg trade duration 4-5 days). As investor I'm deeply influenced by Dow Theory
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Dow Theory Investment
  • Dow Theory Update For June 19: Primary Bear Market For Gold And Silver Reconfirmed  2 comments
    Jun 19, 2013 4:46 PM | about stocks: SPY, DIA, IYT, GLD, SLV, GDX, SIL

    Stocks take a nosedive.


    The SPY and Industrials, and Transports closed down. The primary trend is bullish, and the secondary one is bearish for the reasons given here.

    Today's action brought the stock indices closer to the June 5 lows. If the June 5 lows were to be violated a primary bear market would be signaled, as was explained here.

    Today's volume was higher than yesterday's, which has a bearish connotation, since lower prices were met by expanding volume. The overall pattern of volume remains neutral.

    Gold and Silver

    GLD violated the 05/17/2013 primary bear market lows (red horizontal line). By violating such lows, GLD confirmed SLV's lower lows of June 7, and according to the Dow Theory, the primary bear market has been reconfirmed, once again. It is good to remember that the Dow Theory signaled a primary bear market for GLD and SLV on December 20, 2012, as was punctually reported here. Thus, this primary bear market signal is already 6 months old. If I were dealing with stocks, I would say that this primary bear market is nearing middle age, as the average duration for bear markets tends to be ca 6 months. However, I am dealing here with precious metals, which is a totally different beast, and accordingly, I have no track record to guide me as to the likely duration of this bear market. What I do know, though, and this is enough to keep me out of trouble, is that the primary and secondary trend is bearish.

    Here you have an updated chart:



    (click to enlarge)
    By violating the 05/17 lows (red horizontal line) GLD confirmed SLV and the primary bear market has been reconfirmed

    SIL violated the 05/17/2013 primary bear market lows. However, GDX, still holds above such lows, and did not confirm. Such lack of confirmation implies that the primary bear market has not been re-confirmed yet, and, more importantly, that the secondary trend remains bullish. Perhaps the secondary bullish trend is in its death-throes, but until GDX makes a lower low and confirms SIL, the secondary trend remains bullish according to the Dow Theory for the reasons explained here.

    The chart below shows the precarious situation of SIL and GDX:



    (click to enlarge)
    GDX hasn't confirmed SIL lower lows. Will it do it soon?


    The Dow Theorist

    Stocks: SPY, DIA, IYT, GLD, SLV, GDX, SIL
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Comments (2)
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  • michaelgcrist
    , contributor
    Comments (13) | Send Message
    Only one day later [062013]... the market's action for SIL & GDX should definitely confirm the bearish primary trend!
    20 Jun 2013, 03:21 PM Reply Like
  • Manuel Blay
    , contributor
    Comments (369) | Send Message
    Author’s reply » Bingo! See the chart I posted today in today's post.
    20 Jun 2013, 04:53 PM Reply Like
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