Manuel Blay's  Instablog

Manuel Blay
Send Message
Trader and investor. My trading is short-term based (avg trade duration 4-5 days). As investor I'm deeply influenced by Dow Theory
My blog:
Dow Theory Investment
  • Dow Theory Update For July 5: Precious Metals Listless. Trends Unchanged  0 comments
    Jul 5, 2013 4:40 PM | about stocks: SPY, DIA, IYT, GLD, SLV, GDX, SIL

    Stocks closed up

    Great article on the advantages of market timing

    Those skeptical as to the benefits of market timing, and its ability to increase slightly profits while drastically reducing drawdowns versus buy and hold, are advised to read "Timing Method Performance Over Ten Decades", penned by Mutual Fund Observer. The article delivers a breakdown of the performance and risk reduction achieved over ten decades (that is a century) by timing the market with a modest moving average, versus buy and hold and portfolio diversification (60 % stocks, 40% bonds). As you can guess, even a simple rule like getting out of stocks when prices are below the 200 day moving average, manage to increase returns while reducing risk.

    Once again, the article proves that timing devices (even modest ones, such as a 200 days moving average) do a very good job at protecting the investor from devastating losses. And, at the risk of over repeating myself, the investor should first focus on not losing too much money. Avoid big losses, and profits will take care of themselves.

    If things are so good with a humble moving average, you can imagine that the Dow Theory clearly excels when it comes to reducing drawdowns and increasing performance. In a future post on this Dow Theory blog, I will compare the Dow Theory versus the 200 day moving average as timing devices.

    Stocks

    The SPY, Industrials, and Transports closed up.

    The primary trend and secondary trend is bearish for the reasons explained here, and further explained here.

    Today's volume was higher than Wednesday's, which is bullish as volume grew in unison with higher prices. However, as you can see on the chart below, volume remains muted, and is not supporting the current rally. The overall pattern of volume is very bearish for the reasons explained here. The updated chart below shows clearly that the trend of volume is clearly bearish: Ascending when prices decline and descending when prices rally, in spite of today's bullish volume.

     

     

    (click to enlarge)
    The current rally in not supported by volume.

    Gold and Silver

    SLV, and GLD closed down. The primary trend is bearish, as explained here and reconfirmed bearish here; the secondary trend remains bearish too.

    GDX and SIL, the gold and silver miners ETFs closed down. The primary trend is bearish, as explained here and reconfirmed bearish here; the secondary trend remains bearish too.

    Eventually, one of these primary bear market re-confirmations will be proven false. In the meantime, it is better not to fight the trend, and wait for a primary bull market signal in order to make a commitment on the long side.

    Sincerely,

    The Dow Theorist

    Stocks: SPY, DIA, IYT, GLD, SLV, GDX, SIL
Back To Manuel Blay's Instablog HomePage »

Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

Comments (0)
Track new comments
Be the first to comment
Full index of posts »
Latest Followers

StockTalks

More »
Instablogs are Seeking Alpha's free blogging platform customized for finance, with instant set up and exposure to millions of readers interested in the financial markets. Publish your own instablog in minutes.