Manuel Blay's  Instablog

Manuel Blay
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Trader and investor. My trading is short-term based (avg trade duration 4-5 days). As investor I'm deeply influenced by Dow Theory
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Dow Theory Investment
  • Dow Theory Update For July 15: Transports, Once Again, Refuse To Confirm Higher Highs  0 comments
    Jul 15, 2013 4:34 PM | about stocks: SPY, DIA, IYT, GLD, SLV, GDX, SIL

    Primary bear market for stocks still in force until Transports confirm.

    Let's get started with our Dow Theory commentary for today.


    The SPY, Industrials, and Transports closed up. As you can see on the chart below, the Transports have not bettered the last recorded highs (blue horizontal line) yet, and, accordingly, as explained here, no primary bull market has been signaled. The ellipse highlights the lack of confirmation.



    (click to enlarge)
    Transports have hitherto not confirmed higher closing highs made by the Industrials (top) and SPY (bottom)

    The primary trend is bearish for the reasons explained here, and further explained here.

    The secondary trend is bullish, as has been explained here.

    Friday's volume was lower than Thursday's, which was bearish, as Friday was an "up" day. Today's volume was lower than Friday's, which is also bearish. The overall pattern of volume is bearish, as:

    1) There are more red arrows (bearish volume days) than blue arrows (bullish volume days), as you can see from the chart below.

    2) Volume clearly recedes when prices stage a rally lasting some days (declining trend lines).

    On the plus side, we have to note that three trading days ago, we had a bullish pivot (highlighted with an ellipse), as was explained here.



    (click to enlarge)
    Volume is kind of bearish

    Gold and Silver

    SLV and GLD closed up. The primary trend is bearish, as explained here and reconfirmed bearish here. However, the secondary trend remains bearish too.

    GDX and SIL, the gold and silver miners ETFs closed up. The primary trend is bearish, as explained here and reconfirmed bearish here.

    The secondary trend for GDX and SIL is bullish, as explained here.


    The Dow Theorist

    Stocks: SPY, DIA, IYT, GLD, SLV, GDX, SIL
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