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Manuel Blay
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Investor and Trader As investor I'm deeply influenced by Dow Theory. I focus on the primary trend (1-2 years). My trading is short-term based (avg trade duration 4-5 days).
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Dow Theory Investment
  • Dow Theory Update For September 13: Precious Metals Arrest Their Decline  0 comments
    Sep 13, 2013 4:48 PM | about stocks: SPY, DIA, IYT, GLD, SLV, GDX, SIL
    Trends unchanged for stocks and precious metals

    Chinese stock market

    Yesterday I posted that, according to the Dow Theory, a primary bull market had been signaled for Chinese stocks. During this weekend I plan to post more details about such primary bull market signal.

    US Stocks

    The SPY, the Industrials and Transports closed up.

    The primary trend is bullish, as explained here, and more in-depth here.

    The secondary is bearish, which implies an ongoing secondary reaction against the primary bullish trend, as explained here.

    Today's volume was smaller than yesterday's, which is bearish as higher prices did not attract higher volume. The overall pattern of volume remains neutral, since bullish and bearish volume days alternate and I cannot discern a clear pattern. In any instance, you make or lose money by price action, and thus, volume, while slightly increasing the odds of a given trade, is of secondary importance. Here you have an updated volume chart:

     

     

    (click to enlarge)
    Volume is not clear to me

    Gold and Silver

    SLV closed and GLD closed barely up. For the reasons I explained here, I feel the primary trend remains bearish. Here I analyzed the primary bear market signal given on December 20, 2012. The primary trend was reconfirmed bearish, as explained here. The secondary trend is bullish (secondary reaction against the primary bearish trend), as explained here.

    SIL and GDX closed modestly up. SIL and GDX, unlike GLD and SLV, are unambiguously in a primary bull market under the Dow Theory, as explained here and here. The secondary trend is bullish as well.

    Sincerely,

    The Dow Theorist

    Themes: Dow Theory Stocks: SPY, DIA, IYT, GLD, SLV, GDX, SIL
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