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Manuel Blay
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Investor and Trader As investor I'm deeply influenced by Dow Theory. I focus on the primary trend (1-2 years). My trading is short-term based (avg trade duration 4-5 days).
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Dow Theory Investment
  • Dow Theory Update For September 18: Primary Bull Market For Stocks Reconfirmed  0 comments
    Sep 18, 2013 5:13 PM | about stocks: SPY, DIA, IYT, GLD, SLV, GDX, SIL

    Precious metals seem to escape, at temporarily, danger area

    Today there are Dow Theory relevant news. Let's get started with today's Dow Theory commentary on this blog.

    US Stocks

    The SPY, the Industrials and Transports closed up. The Industrials and Transports broke out the previous primary bull market closing highs of 08/02 and 08/01 respectively. Thus, being "in the clear" the three indeces we monitor, the primary bull market has been reconfirmed.

    Furthermore, new confirmed higher highs imply that the secondary trend has turned bullish as well. No more secondary reaction.

    The primary trend is bullish, as explained here, and more in-depth here.

    Thus, it is time to adjust our Dow Theory trailing stop. Once the stock market has "survived" the first secondary reaction, the new trailing stop is to be placed at the secondary reaction closing lows, which stand at 163.33 for the SPY. More about the Dow Theory trailing stop, here.

    As you can see, in the spreadsheet at the bottom of this post, our stop has significantly narrowed. With the stop placed at the secondary reaction lows, our worst likely loss (measured from our entry point on 07/18/2013 at 168.87) is a paltry 3.39%. The unrealized gain amounts to 2.48%.

    Here you have an updated and commentated chart:

     

     

    (click to enlarge)
    Primary bull market re-confirmed today

    Today's volume was higher than yesterday's, which is bullish as higher prices were accompanied by higher volume. The overall pattern of volume remains neutral, since bullish and bearish volume days alternate and I cannot discern a clear pattern. The only technical fact that seems to slightly increase the bullish volume case, is that today we had a bullish pivot. Thus, today's volume was much higher than the volume saw at the previous high point in the past (both highs connected by a blue horizontal line). While exuberant 1-day volume may point at temporary exhaustion, the fact that volume at the new high is higher than volume at the last recorded high shows good following and tends to be bullish for the intermediate term (i.e. 2-4 weeks).

     

     

    (click to enlarge)
    In spite of today's bullish pivot, the overall pattern of volume lacks clarity; at least to me.

    Chinese Stocks

    The FXI and the HAO broke above the last recorded primary bull market highs. Thus, the primary and secondary trend is bullish. More about the primary bull market signal here and here.

    Here you have an updated chart:

     

     

    (click to enlarge)
    Chinese stocks also in a primary bull market. Higher highs made today

    Gold and Silver

    SLV and GLD closed strongly up. For the reasons I explained here, I feel the primary trend remains bearish. Here I analyzed the primary bear market signal given on December 20, 2012. The primary trend was reconfirmed bearish, as explained here. The secondary trend is bullish (secondary reaction against the primary bearish trend), as explained here.

    Here, I explained that GLD and SLV set up for a primary bull market signal. However, a setup is not the same as the "real thing," namely the primary bull market; thus, many "setups" do not materialize and until the secondary reaction closing highs are jointly broken up, no primary bull market will be signaled.

    SIL and GDX closed strongly up. SIL and GDX, unlike GLD and SLV, are unambiguously in a primary bull market under the Dow Theory, as explained here and here.

    The secondary trend is bearish, which is tantamount to saying that there is an ongoing secondary reaction against the primary bullish trend, for the reasons given here.

    Sincerely,

    The Dow Theorist

    Themes: Dow Theory Stocks: SPY, DIA, IYT, GLD, SLV, GDX, SIL
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