Manuel Blay's  Instablog

Manuel Blay
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Trader and investor. My trading is short-term based (avg trade duration 4-5 days). As investor I'm deeply influenced by Dow Theory
My blog:
Dow Theory Investment
  • Dow Theory Update For October 23: Transports Make Higher Highs Unconfirmed 0 comments
    Oct 23, 2013 4:52 PM | about stocks: SPY, DIA, IYT, GLD, SLV, GDX, SIL

    Russell remains bullish on gold

    Richard Russell of the "Dow Theory Letters" likes recent gold action. Let's hope he has called the bottom. In the meantime, while I acknowledge that the secondary trend is bullish, under a strict Dow Theory viewpoint, I don't see a primary bull market yet.

    US stocks

    The SPY, and Industrials closed down. The Transports closed up making a higher high unconfirmed. The Industrials remain below the 09/18/2013 highs. The longer the lack of confirmation persists, the higher the odds for a temporary reversal of the current bullish thrust.

    The primary trend is bullish, as explained here, and more in-depth here.

    The primary trend was reconfirmed as bullish on October 17th, for the reasons given here.

    Today's volume was lower than yesterday's, which is bullish, as lower prices did not attract more volume. I consider volume to be bearish for the reasons given here and here.

    Gold and Silver

    SLV and GLD closed down. For the reasons I explained here, and most recently here, I feel the primary trend remains bearish, all the recent strong action notwithstanding. Here I analyzed the primary bear market signal given on December 20, 2012. The primary trend was reconfirmed bearish, as explained here. The secondary trend is bullish (secondary reaction against the primary bearish trend), as explained here.

    Here, I explained that GLD and SLV set up for a primary bull market signal. However, a setup is not the same as the "real thing," namely the primary bull market; thus, many "setups" do not materialize and until the secondary reaction closing highs are jointly broken up, no primary bull market will be signaled.

    SIL and GDX closed down. SIL and GDX, unlike GLD and SLV, are in a primary bull market under the Dow Theory, as explained here and here.

    The secondary trend is bearish, which is tantamount to saying that there is an ongoing secondary reaction against the primary bullish trend, for the reasons given here.

    Sincerely,

    The Dow Theorist

    Stocks: SPY, DIA, IYT, GLD, SLV, GDX, SIL
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