Manuel Blay's  Instablog

Manuel Blay
Send Message
Trader and investor. My trading is short-term based (avg trade duration 4-5 days). As investor I'm deeply influenced by Dow Theory
My blog:
Dow Theory Investment
  • Dow Theory Update: SIL And GDX Extend Losses Following Primary Bear Market Signal  0 comments
    Nov 21, 2013 4:36 PM | about stocks: SPY, DIA, IYT, GLD, SLV, GDX, SIL

    Industrials make higher high unconfirmed

    US stocks

    The SPY, Industrials and Transports closed up. The Industrials made a higher closing high unconfirmed.

    The primary trend is bullish, as explained here, and more in-depth here.

    The primary trend was reconfirmed as bullish on October 17th and November 13th, for the reasons given here and here.

    Today's volume was higher than Wednesday's. This is bullish, as higher prices were met by stronger volume. After today's action, I'd tentatively label volume as neutral. I base this opinion on two factors:

    1) There have been 5 bullish volume days in a row.

    2) Volume contracted during the last muted pullback, which is bullish

    3) However, lots of volume bearishness can be found in the days preceding the last 5 days.

    Here you have an updated chart:

     

     

    (click to enlarge)
    I'd say volume is neutral short term

    Gold and Silver

    SLV closed up, and GLD closed down. Yesterday, GLD and SLV made lower lows, which is bearish (even though it doesn't change our verdict as to the secondary trend)

    For the reasons I explained here, and more recently here, I feel the primary trend remains bearish. Here I analyzed the primary bear market signal given on December 20, 2012. The primary trend was reconfirmed bearish, as explained here. The secondary trend is bullish (secondary reaction against the primary bearish trend), as explained here.

    Here, I explained that GLD and SLV set up for a primary bull market signal. However, a setup is not the same as the "real thing," namely the primary bull market; thus, many "setups" do not materialize and until the secondary reaction closing highs are jointly broken up, no primary bull market will be signaled.

    As to the gold and silver miners ETFs, SIL and GDX, both closed down. The primary trend was signaled as bearish yesterday, as was profusely explained here and here. Likewise, the secondary trend is bearish.

    All in all, the last shoe to drop for the precious metals sector would be GLD and SLV reconfirming the ongoing primary bear market. Until this happens, the secondary trend is bullish, and this is the only "bullishness" to be found in this beleaguered sector.

    Sincerely,

    The Dow Theorist

    Stocks: SPY, DIA, IYT, GLD, SLV, GDX, SIL
Back To Manuel Blay's Instablog HomePage »

Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

Comments (0)
Track new comments
Be the first to comment
Full index of posts »
Latest Followers

StockTalks

More »
Instablogs are Seeking Alpha's free blogging platform customized for finance, with instant set up and exposure to millions of readers interested in the financial markets. Publish your own instablog in minutes.