Manuel Blay's  Instablog

Manuel Blay
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Trader and investor. My trading is short-term based (avg trade duration 4-5 days). As investor I'm deeply influenced by Dow Theory
My blog:
Dow Theory Investment
  • Dow Theory Update For November 22: Stocks Make Higher Highs  0 comments
    Nov 22, 2013 4:41 PM | about stocks: SPY, DIA, IYT, GLD, SLV, GDX, SIL

    Fundamentalist investor Hugh Hendry acknowledges the importance of trends

    Zero Hedge quotes Hugh Hendry's latest statement:

    "[e]verything I believed in I have had to reject. This environment only makes sense through the prism of trends"

    I am not going to pick on him because it is legitimate to be a value investor. Furthermore, Hendry's concession attests to his honesty and intelligence. However, it is worth mentioning that proper trend following, by humbly admitting that nobody really knows anything, is, at least, as honorable and effective (more effective if we are to be guided by empirical track records) than just trusting one's value-based opinions.

    Of course, there are many ways to be a trend follower. In my opinion, one of the best ways is to determine trends armed with the rules of the Dow Theory. Future posts of this Dow Theory blog will show the net superiority of the Dow Theory, of any "flavor" whatsoever, over moving averages.

    US stocks

    The SPY, Industrials and Transports closed up. The Industrials made a higher closing confirmed by the SPY.

    The primary trend is bullish, as explained here, and more in-depth here.

    The primary trend was reconfirmed as bullish on October 17th and November 13th, for the reasons given here and here.

    Today's volume was lower than Thursday's. This is bearish, as higher prices were not met by stronger volume. I'd label volume as neutral for the reasons given here.

    Gold and Silver

    SLV, and GLD closed down. Today and yesterday, GLD and SLV made lower lows, which is bearish (even though it doesn't change our verdict as to the secondary trend)

    For the reasons I explained here, and more recently here, I feel the primary trend remains bearish. Here I analyzed the primary bear market signal given on December 20, 2012. The primary trend was reconfirmed bearish, as explained here. The secondary trend is bullish (secondary reaction against the primary bearish trend), as explained here.

    Here, I explained that GLD and SLV set up for a primary bull market signal. However, a setup is not the same as the "real thing," namely the primary bull market; thus, many "setups" do not materialize and until the secondary reaction closing highs are jointly broken up, no primary bull market will be signaled.

    As to the gold and silver miners ETFs, SIL closed unchanged, and GDX closed down. The primary trend is bearish, as was profusely explained here and here. Likewise, the secondary trend is bearish.

    All in all, the last shoe to drop for the precious metals sector would be GLD and SLV reconfirming the ongoing primary bear market. Until this happens, the secondary trend is bullish, and this is the only "bullishness" to be found in this beleaguered sector.

    Sincerely,

    The Dow Theorist

    Stocks: SPY, DIA, IYT, GLD, SLV, GDX, SIL
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